Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$478.99

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 21 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,478

Combined PnL+$503.56

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares118

Combined PnL-$24.57

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 78.4¢	$552.81	$637.08	+$84.28	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
SP spartacray	Downavg 67.9¢	$304.61	$436.57	+$131.97	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 74¢	$258.92	$271.87	+$12.95	49% 5097-5260 (10357)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 70¢	$233.08	$332.97	+$99.89	51% 707-677 (1384)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 70.1¢	$215.32	$233.23	+$17.91	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 55¢	$105.82	$191.86	+$86.04	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$112.51	$121.7	+$9.19	58% 37558-26812 (64370)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$52.99	—	-$52.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$59.52	$121.7	+$62.18
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 45.4¢	$115.76	$88	-$27.76	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$32.56	$88	+$55.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$83.2	—	-$83.2
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 36.8¢	$74.58	$93	+$18.42	55% 7296-5969 (13265)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$34.03	$93	+$58.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.8¢	$40.55	—	-$40.55
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 79.6¢	$76.07	$95.56	+$19.49	57% 70317-53442 (123759)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 75.3¢	$70.18	$75	+$4.82	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$50.65	$67.71	+$17.06	56% 12354-9532 (21886)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$27.82	$44.84	+$17.02	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 71¢	$21.07	$20.07	-$1	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$20.34	$28.91	+$8.57	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 71¢	$18.46	$15	-$3.46	52% 89796-84260 (174056)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$14.83	—	-$14.83	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
NO Nobey1<$100	Downavg 68¢	$6.8	$10	+$3.2	39% 421-645 (1066)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$6.65	—	-$6.65	55% 17653-14260 (31913)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 70¢	$4.86	$6.94	+$2.08	66% 111846-58190 (170036)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 69¢	$4.45	$5	+$0.55	67% 53187-26596 (79783)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3.6¢	$3.09	—	-$3.09	46% 38019-44852 (82871)
PA Parad0X<$100	Downavg 56¢	$2.8	$5	+$2.2	56% 2167-1693 (3860)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3632-2823 (6455)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$552.81

Value

$637.08

PnL

+$84.28

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$304.61

Value

$436.57

PnL

+$131.97

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$258.92

Value

$271.87

PnL

+$12.95

Record

49%

5097-5260 (10357)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$233.08

Value

$332.97

PnL

+$99.89

Record

51%

707-677 (1384)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$215.32

Value

$233.23

PnL

+$17.91

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$105.82

Value

$191.86

PnL

+$86.04

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$112.51

Value

$121.7

PnL

+$9.19

Record

58%

37558-26812 (64370)

Both legs:

Up$52.9941.6¢-$52.99

Down$59.5248.9¢+$62.18

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$115.76

Value

$88

PnL

-$27.76

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

Both legs:

Down$32.5637¢+$55.44

Up$83.245.4¢-$83.2

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$74.58

Value

$93

PnL

+$18.42

Record

55%

7296-5969 (13265)

Both legs:

Down$34.0336.6¢+$58.97

Up$40.5536.8¢-$40.55

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$76.07

Value

$95.56

PnL

+$19.49

Record

57%

70317-53442 (123759)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$70.18

Value

$75

PnL

+$4.82

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$50.65

Value

$67.71

PnL

+$17.06

Record

56%

12354-9532 (21886)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$27.82

Value

$44.84

PnL

+$17.02

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$21.07

Value

$20.07

PnL

-$1

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$20.34

Value

$28.91

PnL

+$8.57

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$18.46

Value

$15

PnL

-$3.46

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$14.83

Value

—

PnL

-$14.83

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

Nobey1<$100

Down

Invested

$6.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.2

Record

39%

421-645 (1066)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$6.65

Value

—

PnL

-$6.65

Record

55%

17653-14260 (31913)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.86

Value

$6.94

PnL

+$2.08

Record

66%

111846-58190 (170036)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$4.45

Value

PnL

+$0.55

Record

67%

53187-26596 (79783)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

—

PnL

-$3.09

Record

46%

38019-44852 (82871)

Parad0X<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

PnL

+$2.2

Record

56%

2167-1693 (3860)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3632-2823 (6455)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 21 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x13420bff...48d553

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793274900

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $637.08

+$84.28

spartacray

Down — $436.57

+$131.97

ply-pm0

Down — $271.87

+$12.95

seeeeeeb

Down — $332.97

+$99.89

GoodFallen

Down — $233.23

+$17.91

sir-upalot

Down — $191.86

+$86.04

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$9.19

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$27.76

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$18.42

uninformedfloww

Down — $95.56

+$19.49

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