Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
-$753.39
Smart Money Signal
16 of 29 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 50.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$65.78 | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 42.9¢ | $418.51 | $500.63 | +$82.12 | 56% 13634-10870 (24504) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 41.5¢ | $288.34 | $452.59 | +$164.24 | 56% 12354-9532 (21886) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 89.1¢ | $368.1 | — | -$368.1 | 57% 70317-53442 (123759) |
SP spartacrayCTR | Upavg 74.1¢ | $492.63 | — | -$492.63 | 53% 27038-24068 (51106) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $339.03 | $294.64 | -$44.38 | 49% 5097-5260 (10357) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $219.63 | $223.07 | +$3.44 | 57% 11882-8874 (20756) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 99¢ | $122.41 | $112 | -$10.41 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $80.52 | — | -$80.52 | 60% 12076-7966 (20042) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $99.81 | $87.7 | -$12.11 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 46.6¢ | $72.71 | $155.87 | +$83.16 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $75.6 | $60 | -$15.6 | 57% 10246-7680 (17926) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 94¢ | $56.4 | $60 | +$3.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13.7¢ | $19.2 | — | -$19.2 | |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $65.5 | — | -$65.5 | 59% 6632-4597 (11229) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $58.41 | $51.72 | -$6.69 | 67% 53187-26596 (79783) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.6¢ | $64.45 | — | -$64.45 | 66% 111846-58190 (170036) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $45.52 | — | -$45.52 | 48% 23169-25372 (48541) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Upavg 83.3¢ | $91.5 | — | -$91.5 | 55% 23757-19198 (42955) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $4.87 | — | -$4.87 | 51% 17003-16557 (33560) |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $40.67 | — | -$40.67 | 77% 9332-2772 (12104) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $12.76 | $58 | +$45.24 | 57% 7702-5901 (13603) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 23.6¢ | $48.4 | $205 | +$156.6 | 55% 8511-6950 (15461) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $35.86 | $29.9 | -$3.84 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 68.6¢ | $43.76 | — | -$43.76 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $40.5 | $62.28 | +$21.78 | 55% 17653-14260 (31913) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $8.47 | $9.01 | +$0.54 | 63% 51542-30333 (81875) |
Invested
$1,178.75
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$65.78
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
Invested
$418.51
Value
$500.63
PnL
+$82.12
Record
56%
13634-10870 (24504)
FairValueMachineInvested
$288.34
Value
$452.59
PnL
+$164.24
Record
56%
12354-9532 (21886)
Invested
$368.1
Value
—
PnL
-$368.1
Record
57%
70317-53442 (123759)
Invested
$492.63
Value
—
PnL
-$492.63
Record
53%
27038-24068 (51106)
Invested
$339.03
Value
$294.64
PnL
-$44.38
Record
49%
5097-5260 (10357)
Invested
$219.63
Value
$223.07
PnL
+$3.44
Record
57%
11882-8874 (20756)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$122.41
Value
$112
PnL
-$10.41
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
Invested
$80.52
Value
—
PnL
-$80.52
Record
60%
12076-7966 (20042)
Invested
$99.81
Value
$87.7
PnL
-$12.11
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Invested
$72.71
Value
$155.87
PnL
+$83.16
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
Invested
$75.6
Value
$60
PnL
-$15.6
Record
57%
10246-7680 (17926)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.5
Value
—
PnL
-$65.5
Record
59%
6632-4597 (11229)
Invested
$58.41
Value
$51.72
PnL
-$6.69
Record
67%
53187-26596 (79783)
Invested
$64.45
Value
—
PnL
-$64.45
Record
66%
111846-58190 (170036)
Invested
$45.52
Value
—
PnL
-$45.52
Record
48%
23169-25372 (48541)
Invested
$91.5
Value
—
PnL
-$91.5
Record
55%
23757-19198 (42955)
Invested
$4.87
Value
—
PnL
-$4.87
Record
51%
17003-16557 (33560)
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
$40.67
Value
—
PnL
-$40.67
Record
77%
9332-2772 (12104)
Invested
$12.76
Value
$58
PnL
+$45.24
Record
57%
7702-5901 (13603)
machinelearnedInvested
$48.4
Value
$205
PnL
+$156.6
Record
55%
8511-6950 (15461)
Invested
$35.86
Value
$29.9
PnL
-$3.84
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$43.76
Value
—
PnL
-$43.76
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$62.28
PnL
+$21.78
Record
55%
17653-14260 (31913)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$8.47
Value
$9.01
PnL
+$0.54
Record
63%
51542-30333 (81875)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
GoodFallen
Down — $500.63
FairValueMachine
Down — $452.59
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
spartacray
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm0
Down — $294.64
EZTRADENL2
Down — $223.07
MayorMamdani
Down — $112
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $87.7