Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$329.25

Smart Money Signal

14 of 23 top traders (61%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,379

Combined PnL+$795.11

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares596

Combined PnL-$465.86

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$11.6	56% 29291-23029 (52320)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$78.22	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.3¢	$743.41	—	-$743.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$357.02	$1.0K	+$665.19
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 46¢	$561.15	$790.15	+$229.01	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$363.32	$790.15	+$426.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$197.83	—	-$197.83
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$302	$330.3	+$28.3	49% 5097-5260 (10357)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$154.29	—	-$154.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$147.71	$330.3	+$182.59
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$281.59	$290.75	+$9.16	56% 12354-9532 (21886)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$167.17	—	-$167.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.4¢	$114.42	$290.75	+$176.33
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$264.14	$181.75	-$82.39	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$182.69	—	-$182.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$81.45	$181.75	+$100.3
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$91.68	$159.1	+$67.42	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$74.14	$159.1	+$84.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.2¢	$17.54	—	-$17.54
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 75.9¢	$142.3	—	-$142.3	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 93¢	$191.51	$150.18	-$41.32	64% 39870-22776 (62646)
└ Up leg	Upavg 93¢	$139.67	$150.18	+$10.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 80¢	$51.84	—	-$51.84
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 92¢	$93.6	—	-$93.6	57% 10246-7680 (17926)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 97.3¢	$171.34	$161.99	-$9.36	55% 44462-36957 (81419)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 55¢	$78.52	$78.81	+$0.29	67% 53187-26596 (79783)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$35.18	—	-$35.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$43.34	$78.81	+$35.47
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 61.9¢	$82.14	—	-$82.14	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$54.69	—	-$54.69	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
LI Little-big	Upavg 35¢	$35	$100	+$65	34% 18648-35642 (54290)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 92¢	$36.8	—	-$36.8	57% 70317-53442 (123759)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$68.16	$37	-$31.16	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$36.62	—	-$36.62	58% 50880-37022 (87902)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 3¢	$15.03	$500.94	+$485.91	59% 62097-43210 (105307)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$17.68	—	-$17.68	57% 7702-5901 (13603)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$37.62	$38	+$0.38	93% 22942-1749 (24691)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 87¢	$21.38	$14.62	-$6.77	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$2.04	—	-$2.04	77% 9332-2772 (12104)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8	$16	+$8	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
pspspsps5	Upavg 4.5¢	$5.62	$125.42	+$119.8	46% 38019-44852 (82871)

THG.

Invested

$1,148.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.6

Record

56%

29291-23029 (52320)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,100.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$78.22

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

Both legs:

Down$743.4165.3¢-$743.41

Up$357.0234.9¢+$665.19

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$561.15

Value

$790.15

PnL

+$229.01

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

Both legs:

Up$363.3246¢+$426.83

Down$197.8351.8¢-$197.83

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$302

Value

$330.3

PnL

+$28.3

Record

49%

5097-5260 (10357)

Both legs:

Down$154.2949.1¢-$154.29

Up$147.7144.7¢+$182.59

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$281.59

Value

$290.75

PnL

+$9.16

Record

56%

12354-9532 (21886)

Both legs:

Down$167.1757¢-$167.17

Up$114.4239.4¢+$176.33

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$264.14

Value

$181.75

PnL

-$82.39

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

Both legs:

Down$182.6955.5¢-$182.69

Up$81.4544.8¢+$100.3

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$91.68

Value

$159.1

PnL

+$67.42

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

Both legs:

Up$74.1446.6¢+$84.96

Down$17.5415.2¢-$17.54

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$142.3

Value

—

PnL

-$142.3

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$191.51

Value

$150.18

PnL

-$41.32

Record

64%

39870-22776 (62646)

Both legs:

Invested

$93.6

Value

—

PnL

-$93.6

Record

57%

10246-7680 (17926)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$171.34

Value

$161.99

PnL

-$9.36

Record

55%

44462-36957 (81419)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$78.52

Value

$78.81

PnL

+$0.29

Record

67%

53187-26596 (79783)

Both legs:

Down$35.1851.1¢-$35.18

Up$43.3455¢+$35.47

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$82.14

Value

—

PnL

-$82.14

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$54.69

Value

—

PnL

-$54.69

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

Little-big

Invested

$35

Value

$100

PnL

+$65

Record

34%

18648-35642 (54290)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.8

Value

—

PnL

-$36.8

Record

57%

70317-53442 (123759)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$68.16

Value

$37

PnL

-$31.16

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.62

Value

—

PnL

-$36.62

Record

58%

50880-37022 (87902)

0x50f7

Invested

$15.03

Value

$500.94

PnL

+$485.91

Record

59%

62097-43210 (105307)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.68

Value

—

PnL

-$17.68

Record

57%

7702-5901 (13603)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$37.62

Value

$38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

93%

22942-1749 (24691)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$21.38

Value

$14.62

PnL

-$6.77

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.04

Value

—

PnL

-$2.04

Record

77%

9332-2772 (12104)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

Value

$16

PnL

+$8

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

pspspsps5

Invested

$5.62

Value

$125.42

PnL

+$119.8

Record

46%

38019-44852 (82871)

Smart Money Signal

14 of 23 top traders (61%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa01e7e91...01056d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793274300

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $1.2K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Down — $0

ohioism

Arbitrage — excluded

trdyugiolkw

Down — $0