Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Up 82%
4 arb excluded
$5.0K
$284.77
Smart Money Signal
14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 59% 62097-43210 (105307) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 63.2¢ | $439.2 | $586.94 | +$147.73 | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.2¢ | $370.88 | $586.94 | +$216.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 6.5¢ | $68.32 | — | -$68.32 | |
SP spartacray | Upavg 74.2¢ | $239.75 | $274.14 | +$34.39 | 53% 27038-24068 (51106) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 66.4¢ | $193.43 | $209.79 | +$16.36 | 49% 5097-5260 (10357) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.4¢ | $139.26 | $209.79 | +$70.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.8¢ | $54.17 | — | -$54.17 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 47.7¢ | $130.3 | $191.97 | +$61.67 | 57% 11882-8874 (20756) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 39.3¢ | $154.37 | $64.98 | -$89.39 | 56% 13634-10870 (24504) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.3¢ | $114.24 | — | -$114.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.8¢ | $40.13 | $64.98 | +$24.85 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $73.67 | $88 | +$14.33 | 60% 12076-7966 (20042) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.5¢ | $64.68 | $88 | +$23.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 6.5¢ | $8.99 | — | -$8.99 | |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 62.7¢ | $64.67 | $77.53 | +$12.86 | 56% 12354-9532 (21886) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $2.15 | — | -$2.15 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50¢ | $57.83 | $115.67 | +$57.83 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $50.89 | $88 | +$38.91 | 55% 7296-5969 (13265) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $48.8 | $80 | +$31.2 | 57% 70317-53442 (123759) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 76.5¢ | $45.31 | $59.25 | +$13.94 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 53.2¢ | $34.94 | $65.63 | +$30.69 | 59% 6632-4597 (11229) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.8¢ | $23.9 | — | -$23.9 | 55% 23757-19198 (42955) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 64.5¢ | $21.2 | $20 | -$1.2 | 67% 53187-26596 (79783) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $5.77 | $12 | +$6.23 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $20 | +$10.2 | 57% 7702-5901 (13603) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $11.2 | $20 | +$8.8 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $3.57 | $7.14 | +$3.57 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $1.28 | — | -$1.28 | 55% 8511-6950 (15461) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3632-2823 (6455) |
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
59%
62097-43210 (105307)
Invested
$439.2
Value
$586.94
PnL
+$147.73
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
Both legs:
Invested
$239.75
Value
$274.14
PnL
+$34.39
Record
53%
27038-24068 (51106)
Invested
$193.43
Value
$209.79
PnL
+$16.36
Record
49%
5097-5260 (10357)
Both legs:
Invested
$130.3
Value
$191.97
PnL
+$61.67
Record
57%
11882-8874 (20756)
Invested
$154.37
Value
$64.98
PnL
-$89.39
Record
56%
13634-10870 (24504)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.67
Value
$88
PnL
+$14.33
Record
60%
12076-7966 (20042)
Both legs:
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$64.67
Value
$77.53
PnL
+$12.86
Record
56%
12354-9532 (21886)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
—
PnL
-$2.15
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
Invested
$57.83
Value
$115.67
PnL
+$57.83
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
Invested
$50.89
Value
$88
PnL
+$38.91
Record
55%
7296-5969 (13265)
Invested
$48.8
Value
$80
PnL
+$31.2
Record
57%
70317-53442 (123759)
Invested
$45.31
Value
$59.25
PnL
+$13.94
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Invested
$34.94
Value
$65.63
PnL
+$30.69
Record
59%
6632-4597 (11229)
Invested
$23.9
Value
—
PnL
-$23.9
Record
55%
23757-19198 (42955)
Invested
$21.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.2
Record
67%
53187-26596 (79783)
Invested
$5.77
Value
$12
PnL
+$6.23
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.2
Record
57%
7702-5901 (13603)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$11.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.8
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$7.14
PnL
+$3.57
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$1.28
Value
—
PnL
-$1.28
Record
55%
8511-6950 (15461)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3632-2823 (6455)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
Up — $274.14
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Up — $191.97
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
Up — $77.53
pspspsps5
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $115.67