Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,751

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Down12 traders

Total Value$971.45

Total Shares971

Combined PnL+$229.29

Up — 37%Down — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Up	—	—	$-4.5K	56% 3632-2823 (6455)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$25.18	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.4¢	$333.87	—	-$333.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$711.85	$1.0K	+$308.69
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$590.07	$675.7	+$85.64	58% 37558-26812 (64370)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$288.77	—	-$288.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.6¢	$301.29	$675.7	+$374.41
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$362.66	$447.36	+$84.7	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.4¢	$230.15	$447.36	+$217.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$132.51	—	-$132.51
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.7¢	$25.8	—	-$25.8	59% 62097-43210 (105307)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$203.65	$176.76	-$26.89	49% 5097-5260 (10357)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$101.47	—	-$101.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.8¢	$102.19	$176.76	+$74.58
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 76¢	$255.08	$263.99	+$8.91	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$200.63	$263.99	+$63.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.2¢	$54.45	—	-$54.45
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 71.9¢	$177.62	$143.34	-$34.28	55% 7296-5969 (13265)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$74.53	—	-$74.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.9¢	$103.09	$143.34	+$40.25
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$211	$177.4	-$33.6	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$98.09	—	-$98.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.6¢	$112.91	$177.4	+$64.49
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 42.4¢	$109.37	$172.38	+$63.01	66% 111846-58190 (170036)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$73.13	$172.38	+$99.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.8¢	$36.24	—	-$36.24
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$105.46	$135.66	+$30.2	56% 12354-9532 (21886)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$76.02	$135.66	+$59.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.5¢	$29.44	—	-$29.44
machinelearned	Downavg 63.2¢	$154.77	$244.77	+$90	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
13 13897651	Downavg 65¢	$114.53	$176.22	+$61.68	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 90.1¢	$83.29	$87.2	+$3.91	46% 38019-44852 (82871)
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.6¢	$4.76	—	-$4.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.1¢	$78.53	$87.2	+$8.67
SP spartacray	Downavg 62¢	$95.55	$143.05	+$47.5	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$2.01	—	-$2.01	64% 39870-22776 (62646)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$53.6	—	-$53.6	57% 70317-53442 (123759)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 76.2¢	$65.49	$73.56	+$8.07	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 87¢	$69.4	$61	-$8.4	57% 7702-5901 (13603)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 97.7¢	$72.69	$67.69	-$5	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 42¢	$34.96	$50	+$15.04	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97.9¢	$66.64	$68.07	+$1.43	52% 89796-84260 (174056)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 91.3¢	$36.8	$40.31	+$3.51	57% 10246-7680 (17926)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$24.41	$34.69	+$10.28	55% 44462-36957 (81419)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$14.72	—	-$14.72	12% 18180-132911 (151091)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

56%

3632-2823 (6455)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,045.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$25.18

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

Both legs:

Up$333.8723.4¢-$333.87

Down$711.8569.8¢+$308.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$590.07

Value

$675.7

PnL

+$85.64

Record

58%

37558-26812 (64370)

Both legs:

Up$288.7749.1¢-$288.77

Down$301.2944.6¢+$374.41

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$362.66

Value

$447.36

PnL

+$84.7

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

Both legs:

Down$230.1551.4¢+$217.21

Up$132.5136¢-$132.51

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$25.8

Value

—

PnL

-$25.8

Record

59%

62097-43210 (105307)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$203.65

Value

$176.76

PnL

-$26.89

Record

49%

5097-5260 (10357)

Both legs:

Up$101.4733¢-$101.47

Down$102.1957.8¢+$74.58

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$255.08

Value

$263.99

PnL

+$8.91

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

Both legs:

Down$200.6376¢+$63.36

Up$54.4535.2¢-$54.45

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$177.62

Value

$143.34

PnL

-$34.28

Record

55%

7296-5969 (13265)

Both legs:

Up$74.5329.2¢-$74.53

Down$103.0971.9¢+$40.25

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$211

Value

$177.4

PnL

-$33.6

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

Both legs:

Up$98.0953.6¢-$98.09

Down$112.9163.6¢+$64.49

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$109.37

Value

$172.38

PnL

+$63.01

Record

66%

111846-58190 (170036)

Both legs:

Down$73.1342.4¢+$99.25

Up$36.2432.8¢-$36.24

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$105.46

Value

$135.66

PnL

+$30.2

Record

56%

12354-9532 (21886)

Both legs:

Invested

$154.77

Value

$244.77

PnL

+$90

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

13897651

Down

Invested

$114.53

Value

$176.22

PnL

+$61.68

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.29

Value

$87.2

PnL

+$3.91

Record

46%

38019-44852 (82871)

Both legs:

Up$4.765.6¢-$4.76

Down$78.5390.1¢+$8.67

spartacray

Down

Invested

$95.55

Value

$143.05

PnL

+$47.5

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.01

Value

—

PnL

-$2.01

Record

64%

39870-22776 (62646)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$53.6

Value

—

PnL

-$53.6

Record

57%

70317-53442 (123759)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$65.49

Value

$73.56

PnL

+$8.07

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$69.4

Value

$61

PnL

-$8.4

Record

57%

7702-5901 (13603)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$72.69

Value

$67.69

PnL

-$5

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$34.96

Value

$50

PnL

+$15.04

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$66.64

Value

$68.07

PnL

+$1.43

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$36.8

Value

$40.31

PnL

+$3.51

Record

57%

10246-7680 (17926)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$24.41

Value

$34.69

PnL

+$10.28

Record

55%

44462-36957 (81419)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$14.72

Value

—

PnL

-$14.72

Record

12%

18180-132911 (151091)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x96f780e1...ad8bba

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793273400

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.91

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Arbitrage — excluded