Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$481.76

Smart Money Signal

20 of 23 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,858

Combined PnL+$533.12

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares644

Combined PnL-$51.36

Up — 87%Down — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 82.8¢	$822.37	$936.86	+$114.49	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 63¢	$188.99	$279.41	+$109.76	48% 23169-25372 (48541)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 83.2¢	$206.54	$247.44	+$40.9	55% 7296-5969 (13265)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 65.6¢	$211.77	$322.78	+$111.02	57% 70317-53442 (123759)
SP spartacray	Upavg 75.2¢	$183	$234.86	+$51.86	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
machinelearned	Upavg 90¢	$113.04	$125.34	+$12.3	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$135.54	$150.5	+$14.96	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$93.99	$150.5	+$56.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$41.55	—	-$41.55
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$113.04	$62	-$51.04	34% 18648-35642 (54290)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	—	-$75
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$38.04	$62	+$23.96
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 93.9¢	$116.49	$90.56	-$25.93	49% 5097-5260 (10357)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 49.9¢	$86.27	$172.92	+$86.65	58% 37558-26812 (64370)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Upavg 75.2¢	$69.94	$63.33	-$6.6	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 95¢	$82.91	$44	-$36.86	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 91¢	$54.6	$60	+$5.4	57% 10246-7680 (17926)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 83¢	$48.16	$58	+$9.84	55% 44462-36957 (81419)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 76¢	$38	$50	+$12	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 29.2¢	$35.92	—	-$35.92	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$34.35	$61.5	+$27.15	62% 43662-26649 (70311)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 80¢	$29.5	$36.9	+$7.4	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 88.8¢	$26.4	$25.23	-$0.67	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$24.9	$39.2	+$14.3	66% 111846-58190 (170036)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.7¢	$6.35	—	-$6.35	46% 38019-44852 (82871)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 64¢	$9.98	$10.1	+$0.12	52% 89796-84260 (174056)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$9.09	—	-$9.09	56% 57762-44611 (102373)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 19907-19065 (38972)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	56% 3632-2823 (6455)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$822.37

Value

$936.86

PnL

+$114.49

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$188.99

Value

$279.41

PnL

+$109.76

Record

48%

23169-25372 (48541)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$206.54

Value

$247.44

PnL

+$40.9

Record

55%

7296-5969 (13265)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$211.77

Value

$322.78

PnL

+$111.02

Record

57%

70317-53442 (123759)

spartacray

Invested

$183

Value

$234.86

PnL

+$51.86

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

machinelearned

Invested

$113.04

Value

$125.34

PnL

+$12.3

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$135.54

Value

$150.5

PnL

+$14.96

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

Both legs:

Invested

$113.04

Value

$62

PnL

-$51.04

Record

34%

18648-35642 (54290)

Both legs:

Down$7550¢-$75

Up$38.0461.4¢+$23.96

ply-pm0

Invested

$116.49

Value

$90.56

PnL

-$25.93

Record

49%

5097-5260 (10357)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$86.27

Value

$172.92

PnL

+$86.65

Record

58%

37558-26812 (64370)

GoodFallen<$100

Invested

$69.94

Value

$63.33

PnL

-$6.6

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$82.91

Value

$44

PnL

-$36.86

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$54.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$5.4

Record

57%

10246-7680 (17926)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$48.16

Value

$58

PnL

+$9.84

Record

55%

44462-36957 (81419)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$50

PnL

+$12

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.92

Value

—

PnL

-$35.92

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$34.35

Value

$61.5

PnL

+$27.15

Record

62%

43662-26649 (70311)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$29.5

Value

$36.9

PnL

+$7.4

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$25.23

PnL

-$0.67

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$24.9

Value

$39.2

PnL

+$14.3

Record

66%

111846-58190 (170036)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.35

Value

—

PnL

-$6.35

Record

46%

38019-44852 (82871)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.09

Value

—

PnL

-$9.09

Record

56%

57762-44611 (102373)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19907-19065 (38972)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3632-2823 (6455)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 23 top traders (87%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0df3093f...c2c51f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793272800

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $936.86

+$114.49

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $279.41

+$109.76

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $247.44

+$40.9

uninformedfloww

Up — $322.78

+$111.02

spartacray

Up — $234.86

+$51.86

machinelearned

Up — $125.34

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

Little-big

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $90.56

-$25.93

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $172.92

+$86.65

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