Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 28 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,470

Combined PnL+$622.35

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,125

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 58.6¢	$658.7	$804.59	+$145.89	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 44.2¢	$693.64	—	-$693.64	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
SP spartacray	Downavg 67.3¢	$431.59	$432.9	+$1.31	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 77.1¢	$585.61	—	-$585.61	57% 70317-53442 (123759)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 51.7¢	$253.1	$390.89	+$137.79	56% 12354-9532 (21886)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 47¢	$324.28	$348.16	+$23.88	49% 5097-5260 (10357)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 49¢	$332.83	—	-$332.83	55% 7296-5969 (13265)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 71.6¢	$309.27	$306.32	+$0.5	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
machinelearned	Downavg 28.7¢	$87.74	$306.22	+$218.48	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$186.12	$188	+$1.88	93% 22942-1749 (24691)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$214.6	$179.71	-$34.89	59% 62097-43210 (105307)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 63.9¢	$211.94	—	-$211.94	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$90.3	$99.98	+$9.68	51% 17003-16557 (33560)
└ Down leg	Downavg 21¢	$21	$99.98	+$78.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.4¢	$69.31	—	-$69.31
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 68.5¢	$154.26	$127.79	-$26.47	66% 111846-58190 (170036)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 37.2¢	$79.25	$125.22	+$45.97	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 74.4¢	$123.74	—	-$123.74	48% 23169-25372 (48541)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$60.77	$60.35	-$0.42	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$74.44	$28.32	-$46.13	57% 7702-5901 (13603)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$69.91	—	-$69.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 16¢	$4.53	$28.32	+$23.79
ohioism<$100	Downavg 70¢	$52.7	$75.29	+$22.59	64% 39870-22776 (62646)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$59.58	$37.45	-$22.13	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$17.88	$37.45	+$19.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.3¢	$41.7	—	-$41.7
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$25.4	$50	+$24.6	65% 22359-12289 (34648)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 18.3¢	$13.75	$75	+$61.25	67% 53187-26596 (79783)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$27.09	—	-$27.09	55% 44462-36957 (81419)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$42	—	-$42	57% 10246-7680 (17926)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 76.9¢	$40.9	—	-$40.9	52% 89796-84260 (174056)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$658.7

Value

$804.59

PnL

+$145.89

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$693.64

Value

—

PnL

-$693.64

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$431.59

Value

$432.9

PnL

+$1.31

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$585.61

Value

—

PnL

-$585.61

Record

57%

70317-53442 (123759)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$253.1

Value

$390.89

PnL

+$137.79

Record

56%

12354-9532 (21886)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$324.28

Value

$348.16

PnL

+$23.88

Record

49%

5097-5260 (10357)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$332.83

Value

—

PnL

-$332.83

Record

55%

7296-5969 (13265)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$309.27

Value

$306.32

PnL

+$0.5

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$87.74

Value

$306.22

PnL

+$218.48

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$186.12

Value

$188

PnL

+$1.88

Record

93%

22942-1749 (24691)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$214.6

Value

$179.71

PnL

-$34.89

Record

59%

62097-43210 (105307)

13897651CTR

Invested

$211.94

Value

—

PnL

-$211.94

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$90.3

Value

$99.98

PnL

+$9.68

Record

51%

17003-16557 (33560)

Both legs:

Invested

$154.26

Value

$127.79

PnL

-$26.47

Record

66%

111846-58190 (170036)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$79.25

Value

$125.22

PnL

+$45.97

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$123.74

Value

—

PnL

-$123.74

Record

48%

23169-25372 (48541)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$60.77

Value

$60.35

PnL

-$0.42

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$74.44

Value

$28.32

PnL

-$46.13

Record

57%

7702-5901 (13603)

Both legs:

Invested

$52.7

Value

$75.29

PnL

+$22.59

Record

64%

39870-22776 (62646)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$59.58

Value

$37.45

PnL

-$22.13

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

Both legs:

Down$17.8847.7¢+$19.57

Up$41.773.3¢-$41.7

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$25.4

Value

$50

PnL

+$24.6

Record

65%

22359-12289 (34648)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$13.75

Value

$75

PnL

+$61.25

Record

67%

53187-26596 (79783)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$27.09

Value

—

PnL

-$27.09

Record

55%

44462-36957 (81419)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$42

Value

—

PnL

-$42

Record

57%

10246-7680 (17926)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$40.9

Value

—

PnL

-$40.9

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 28 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x94425d39...7c0e87

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793272500

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Down — $804.59

+$145.89

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Up — $0

-$693.64

spartacray

Down — $432.9

+$1.31

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$585.61

FairValueMachine

Down — $390.89

+$137.79

ply-pm0

Down — $348.16

+$23.88

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

CTR

Up — $0

-$332.83

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $306.32

+$0.5

machinelearned

Down — $306.22

+$218.48

hoodquant

Down — $188

+$1.88

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