Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 43%
8 arb excluded
$1.9K
-$81.06
Smart Money Signal
7 of 16 top traders (44%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 38.2¢ | $568.19 | $550.33 | -$17.86 | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.2¢ | $357.61 | — | -$357.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.3¢ | $210.57 | $550.33 | +$339.76 | |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 59% 62097-43210 (105307) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $196.97 | $258.66 | +$61.7 | 56% 13634-10870 (24504) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.4¢ | $122.5 | $258.66 | +$136.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.5¢ | $74.47 | — | -$74.47 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Downavg 19.9¢ | $43.16 | $139.97 | +$96.81 | 57% 11882-8874 (20756) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 11.1¢ | $15.37 | — | -$15.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.9¢ | $27.79 | $139.97 | +$112.18 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $102.83 | $89.99 | -$12.85 | 49% 5097-5260 (10357) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.9¢ | $63.24 | — | -$63.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $39.59 | $89.99 | +$50.39 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $180.26 | $169 | -$11.26 | 60% 12076-7966 (20042) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81¢ | $72.22 | — | -$72.22 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.9¢ | $108.04 | $169 | +$60.96 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 46.6¢ | $155.79 | $289.83 | +$134.04 | 55% 8511-6950 (15461) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $111.76 | $66.19 | -$45.57 | 55% 7296-5969 (13265) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.3¢ | $92.81 | — | -$92.81 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 28.6¢ | $18.95 | $66.19 | +$47.24 | |
13 13897651CTR | Upavg 56.3¢ | $102.24 | — | -$102.24 | 59% 6632-4597 (11229) |
ST std0CTR<$100 | Upavg 31.7¢ | $48.38 | — | -$48.38 | 67% 53187-26596 (79783) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.8¢ | $44.16 | — | -$44.16 | 57% 10246-7680 (17926) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Downavg 90.5¢ | $108.28 | $84.27 | -$24.01 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 90.5¢ | $76.3 | $84.27 | +$7.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81¢ | $31.98 | — | -$31.98 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 40.3¢ | $56.1 | $89.99 | +$33.89 | 56% 12354-9532 (21886) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.3¢ | $36.3 | $89.99 | +$53.69 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $19.8 | — | -$19.8 | |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 33.5¢ | $35.45 | $58.46 | +$23.02 | 55% 23757-19198 (42955) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $69.55 | $49.3 | -$18.47 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $30.41 | $63.03 | +$32.62 | 53% 27038-24068 (51106) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $19.28 | — | -$19.28 | 57% 7702-5901 (13603) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $32.22 | — | -$32.22 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $26.94 | $20.13 | -$6.81 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 42.3¢ | $8.46 | $20 | +$11.54 | 12% 18180-132911 (151091) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 56% 2167-1693 (3860) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $5.52 | — | -$5.52 | 39% 421-645 (1066) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $3.3 | — | +$6.6 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3632-2823 (6455) |
Invested
$568.19
Value
$550.33
PnL
-$17.86
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
Both legs:
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
59%
62097-43210 (105307)
Invested
$196.97
Value
$258.66
PnL
+$61.7
Record
56%
13634-10870 (24504)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.16
Value
$139.97
PnL
+$96.81
Record
57%
11882-8874 (20756)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.83
Value
$89.99
PnL
-$12.85
Record
49%
5097-5260 (10357)
Both legs:
Invested
$180.26
Value
$169
PnL
-$11.26
Record
60%
12076-7966 (20042)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$155.79
Value
$289.83
PnL
+$134.04
Record
55%
8511-6950 (15461)
Invested
$111.76
Value
$66.19
PnL
-$45.57
Record
55%
7296-5969 (13265)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.24
Value
—
PnL
-$102.24
Record
59%
6632-4597 (11229)
Invested
$48.38
Value
—
PnL
-$48.38
Record
67%
53187-26596 (79783)
Invested
$44.16
Value
—
PnL
-$44.16
Record
57%
10246-7680 (17926)
Invested
$108.28
Value
$84.27
PnL
-$24.01
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$56.1
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$33.89
Record
56%
12354-9532 (21886)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.45
Value
$58.46
PnL
+$23.02
Record
55%
23757-19198 (42955)
Invested
$69.55
Value
$49.3
PnL
-$18.47
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
Invested
$30.41
Value
$63.03
PnL
+$32.62
Record
53%
27038-24068 (51106)
Invested
$19.28
Value
—
PnL
-$19.28
Record
57%
7702-5901 (13603)
Invested
$32.22
Value
—
PnL
-$32.22
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$26.94
Value
$20.13
PnL
-$6.81
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
Invested
$8.46
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.54
Record
12%
18180-132911 (151091)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
56%
2167-1693 (3860)
Invested
$5.52
Value
—
PnL
-$5.52
Record
39%
421-645 (1066)
Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
+$6.6
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3632-2823 (6455)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Down — $289.83
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
CTRUp — $0
std0
CTRUp — $0