Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
30
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$-3.1K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 30 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $19.07 | — | -$19.07 | 62% 43662-26649 (70311) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 61¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
 NIULAI4CTR | Downavg 34.5¢ | $390.15 | — | -$390.15 | 77% 9332-2772 (12104) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 35.1¢ | $330 | — | -$330 | 49% 5097-5260 (10357) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $619.32 | $1.2K | +$605.66 | 58% 37558-26812 (64370) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 70.2¢ | $575.45 | — | -$575.45 | 56% 13634-10870 (24504) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.3¢ | $16.98 | — | -$16.98 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 71.6¢ | $430.08 | — | -$430.08 | 56% 12354-9532 (21886) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 56¢ | $234.26 | — | -$234.26 | 57% 11882-8874 (20756) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 81¢ | $255.48 | — | -$251.73 | 60% 12076-7966 (20042) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Downavg 61.4¢ | $225.08 | — | -$225.08 | 55% 7296-5969 (13265) |
TR trdyugiolkwCTR | Downavg 81.4¢ | $182.24 | — | -$182.24 | 57% 10246-7680 (17926) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 74.9¢ | $132.43 | $115.35 | -$17.08 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $166.46 | $168.14 | +$1.68 | 93% 22942-1749 (24691) |
SP spartacrayCTR | Downavg 83.8¢ | $160.43 | — | -$160.43 | 53% 27038-24068 (51106) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.4¢ | $41.04 | — | -$41.04 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $10.92 | $10.36 | -$0.56 | 56% 57762-44611 (102373) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $72.8 | — | -$72.8 | 57% 70317-53442 (123759) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.6¢ | $74.56 | — | -$74.56 | 59% 6632-4597 (11229) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 26.3¢ | $132.21 | $397.47 | +$265.26 | 55% 8511-6950 (15461) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.3¢ | $104.72 | $397.47 | +$292.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.6¢ | $27.5 | — | -$27.5 | |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 34.3¢ | $99.33 | $147.29 | +$47.96 | 55% 23757-19198 (42955) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $43.7 | — | -$43.7 | 66% 111846-58190 (170036) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $39.69 | — | -$39.69 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Upavg 7.3¢ | $21.9 | $300 | +$278.1 | 48% 23169-25372 (48541) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $24.38 | — | -$24.38 | 58% 50880-37022 (87902) |
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$19.07
Value
—
PnL
-$19.07
Record
62%
43662-26649 (70311)
Invested
$1,031.56
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
NIULAI4CTRInvested
$390.15
Value
—
PnL
-$390.15
Record
77%
9332-2772 (12104)
Invested
$330
Value
—
PnL
-$330
Record
49%
5097-5260 (10357)
Invested
$619.32
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$605.66
Record
58%
37558-26812 (64370)
Invested
$575.45
Value
—
PnL
-$575.45
Record
56%
13634-10870 (24504)
Invested
$16.98
Value
—
PnL
-$16.98
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$430.08
Value
—
PnL
-$430.08
Record
56%
12354-9532 (21886)
Invested
$234.26
Value
—
PnL
-$234.26
Record
57%
11882-8874 (20756)
Invested
$255.48
Value
—
PnL
-$251.73
Record
60%
12076-7966 (20042)
Invested
$225.08
Value
—
PnL
-$225.08
Record
55%
7296-5969 (13265)
Invested
$182.24
Value
—
PnL
-$182.24
Record
57%
10246-7680 (17926)
Invested
$132.43
Value
$115.35
PnL
-$17.08
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Invested
$166.46
Value
$168.14
PnL
+$1.68
Record
93%
22942-1749 (24691)
Invested
$160.43
Value
—
PnL
-$160.43
Record
53%
27038-24068 (51106)
Invested
$41.04
Value
—
PnL
-$41.04
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$10.36
PnL
-$0.56
Record
56%
57762-44611 (102373)
Invested
$72.8
Value
—
PnL
-$72.8
Record
57%
70317-53442 (123759)
Invested
$74.56
Value
—
PnL
-$74.56
Record
59%
6632-4597 (11229)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$132.21
Value
$397.47
PnL
+$265.26
Record
55%
8511-6950 (15461)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.33
Value
$147.29
PnL
+$47.96
Record
55%
23757-19198 (42955)
Invested
$43.7
Value
—
PnL
-$43.7
Record
66%
111846-58190 (170036)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$39.69
Value
—
PnL
-$39.69
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$300
PnL
+$278.1
Record
48%
23169-25372 (48541)
Invested
$24.38
Value
—
PnL
-$24.38
Record
58%
50880-37022 (87902)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.2K
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown — $0
FairValueMachine
CTRDown — $0
EZTRADENL2
CTRDown — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRDown — $0