Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$589.23

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 22 top traders (45%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,812

Combined PnL-$673.84

Down10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,183

Combined PnL+$84.61

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 39.4¢	$464.8	$463.57	-$1.23	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.7¢	$142.11	$463.57	+$321.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.4¢	$322.69	—	-$322.69
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 51.2¢	$340.25	—	-$340.25	58% 37558-26812 (64370)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 56¢	$168	$296.91	+$131.91	48% 23169-25372 (48541)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 42.8¢	$167.22	$224.52	+$57.3	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$96.16	$224.52	+$128.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.9¢	$71.06	—	-$71.06
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 99¢	$199.98	$202	+$2.02	51% 707-677 (1384)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 52.4¢	$147.9	$150.2	+$2.3	49% 5097-5260 (10357)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$97.46	—	-$97.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$50.44	$150.2	+$99.77
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 68.4¢	$193.77	$151.99	-$40.48	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
SP spartacray	Downavg 88¢	$178.32	$148.53	-$29.79	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 85.7¢	$138.27	$151.6	+$13.33	57% 7702-5901 (13603)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 40.6¢	$106.44	$61.2	-$45.24	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$79.24	—	-$79.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$27.2	$61.2	+$34.01
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 86¢	$87.76	$102.01	+$14.24	55% 7296-5969 (13265)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 44.7¢	$89.31	$131.21	+$41.9	56% 12354-9532 (21886)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$58.71	$131.21	+$72.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$30.6	—	-$30.6
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$76.8	—	-$76.8	57% 10246-7680 (17926)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$60.52	—	-$60.52	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$70.6	$61.64	-$8.96	66% 111846-58190 (170036)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.6¢	$27.25	—	-$27.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.3¢	$43.35	$61.64	+$18.29
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$65.45	$56.29	-$9.16	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$58.26	$50	-$6.18	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$58	—	-$58	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 71¢	$47.47	—	-$47.47	55% 44462-36957 (81419)
ST std0CTR<$100	Upavg 78¢	$45.25	—	-$45.25	67% 53187-26596 (79783)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.2¢	$11.69	—	-$11.69	59% 62097-43210 (105307)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$17.51	—	-$17.51	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$10.47	$16.28	+$5.81	52% 89796-84260 (174056)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$8.2	—	-$8.2	12% 18180-132911 (151091)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 5.1¢	$8.14	—	-$8.14	46% 38019-44852 (82871)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$464.8

Value

$463.57

PnL

-$1.23

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

Both legs:

Down$142.1130.7¢+$321.46

Up$322.6939.4¢-$322.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$340.25

Value

—

PnL

-$340.25

Record

58%

37558-26812 (64370)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$168

Value

$296.91

PnL

+$131.91

Record

48%

23169-25372 (48541)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$167.22

Value

$224.52

PnL

+$57.3

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

Both legs:

Down$96.1642.8¢+$128.36

Up$71.0638.9¢-$71.06

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$199.98

Value

$202

PnL

+$2.02

Record

51%

707-677 (1384)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$147.9

Value

$150.2

PnL

+$2.3

Record

49%

5097-5260 (10357)

Both legs:

Up$97.4652.4¢-$97.46

Down$50.4433.6¢+$99.77

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$193.77

Value

$151.99

PnL

-$40.48

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$178.32

Value

$148.53

PnL

-$29.79

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$138.27

Value

$151.6

PnL

+$13.33

Record

57%

7702-5901 (13603)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$106.44

Value

$61.2

PnL

-$45.24

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

Both legs:

Up$79.2440.6¢-$79.24

Down$27.244.4¢+$34.01

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$87.76

Value

$102.01

PnL

+$14.24

Record

55%

7296-5969 (13265)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$89.31

Value

$131.21

PnL

+$41.9

Record

56%

12354-9532 (21886)

Both legs:

Down$58.7144.7¢+$72.51

Up$30.652¢-$30.6

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$76.8

Value

—

PnL

-$76.8

Record

57%

10246-7680 (17926)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$60.52

Value

—

PnL

-$60.52

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$70.6

Value

$61.64

PnL

-$8.96

Record

66%

111846-58190 (170036)

Both legs:

Up$27.2555.6¢-$27.25

Down$43.3570.3¢+$18.29

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$65.45

Value

$56.29

PnL

-$9.16

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$58.26

Value

$50

PnL

-$6.18

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$58

Value

—

PnL

-$58

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$47.47

Value

—

PnL

-$47.47

Record

55%

44462-36957 (81419)

std0CTR<$100

Invested

$45.25

Value

—

PnL

-$45.25

Record

67%

53187-26596 (79783)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$11.69

Value

—

PnL

-$11.69

Record

59%

62097-43210 (105307)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$17.51

Value

—

PnL

-$17.51

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$10.47

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$5.81

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

—

PnL

-$8.2

Record

12%

18180-132911 (151091)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$8.14

Value

—

PnL

-$8.14

Record

46%

38019-44852 (82871)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 22 top traders (45%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0a9d5736...f2737e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793271600

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.23

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$340.25

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $296.91

+$131.91

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$57.3

seeeeeeb

Down — $202

+$2.02

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.3

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $151.99

-$40.48

spartacray

Down — $148.53

-$29.79

wzbbb

Down — $151.6

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded