Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$61.78

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 22 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,103

Combined PnL+$112.35

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,552

Combined PnL-$174.12

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$895.95	$905	+$9.05	93% 22942-1749 (24691)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 79.6¢	$345.41	$397.81	+$52.4	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$302.51	$238.72	-$63.79	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$159.46	—	-$159.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$143.05	$238.72	+$95.67
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 84¢	$158.74	$142.88	-$15.87	55% 7296-5969 (13265)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$120.03	$142.88	+$22.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.5¢	$38.72	—	-$38.72
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 72.8¢	$141.64	$194.56	+$52.92	58% 60278-44004 (104282)
pspspsps5	Downavg 93.1¢	$116.1	$124.74	+$8.64	46% 38019-44852 (82871)
ST std0	Downavg 90¢	$134.39	$120	-$14.39	67% 53187-26596 (79783)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 98¢	$140.68	$120	-$20.68	49% 5097-5260 (10357)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$134.24	$135.03	+$0.79	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.9¢	$106.48	$135.03	+$28.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$27.76	—	-$27.76
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 16.3¢	$52.72	—	-$52.72	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 99¢	$101.97	$103	+$1.03	55% 44462-36957 (81419)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$9.24	—	-$9.24	57% 7702-5901 (13603)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$96.13	$101.97	+$5.84	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.5¢	$74.91	$101.97	+$27.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.5¢	$21.21	—	-$21.21
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 38.9¢	$42.62	—	-$42.62	57% 10246-7680 (17926)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 24.3¢	$37.36	—	-$37.36	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$48.95	$57.86	+$8.91	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 3.5¢	$21	—	-$21	48% 23169-25372 (48541)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96¢	$25.02	$24.19	-$0.8	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$7.98	—	-$7.98	58% 37558-26812 (64370)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 69¢	$18.09	$24.03	+$5.94	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 63¢	$19.18	$27.03	+$7.85	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$2.8	—	-$2.8	52% 89796-84260 (174056)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 70¢	$3.49	$4.99	+$1.5	56% 12354-9532 (21886)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.4	—	-$0.4	51% 19907-19065 (38972)
NO Nobey1CTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	39% 421-645 (1066)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$895.95

Value

$905

PnL

+$9.05

Record

93%

22942-1749 (24691)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$345.41

Value

$397.81

PnL

+$52.4

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$302.51

Value

$238.72

PnL

-$63.79

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

Both legs:

Up$159.4649.9¢-$159.46

Down$143.0559.9¢+$95.67

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$158.74

Value

$142.88

PnL

-$15.87

Record

55%

7296-5969 (13265)

Both legs:

Down$120.0384¢+$22.85

Up$38.7223.5¢-$38.72

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$141.64

Value

$194.56

PnL

+$52.92

Record

58%

60278-44004 (104282)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$116.1

Value

$124.74

PnL

+$8.64

Record

46%

38019-44852 (82871)

std0

Down

Invested

$134.39

Value

$120

PnL

-$14.39

Record

67%

53187-26596 (79783)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$140.68

Value

$120

PnL

-$20.68

Record

49%

5097-5260 (10357)

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$134.24

Value

$135.03

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

Both legs:

Down$106.4878.9¢+$28.55

Up$27.7633.1¢-$27.76

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$52.72

Value

—

PnL

-$52.72

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$101.97

Value

$103

PnL

+$1.03

Record

55%

44462-36957 (81419)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

—

PnL

-$9.24

Record

57%

7702-5901 (13603)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.13

Value

$101.97

PnL

+$5.84

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

Both legs:

Down$74.9173.5¢+$27.06

Up$21.2124.5¢-$21.21

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$42.62

Value

—

PnL

-$42.62

Record

57%

10246-7680 (17926)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$37.36

Value

—

PnL

-$37.36

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$48.95

Value

$57.86

PnL

+$8.91

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

—

PnL

-$21

Record

48%

23169-25372 (48541)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$25.02

Value

$24.19

PnL

-$0.8

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$7.98

Value

—

PnL

-$7.98

Record

58%

37558-26812 (64370)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$18.09

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$5.94

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$19.18

Value

$27.03

PnL

+$7.85

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

—

PnL

-$2.8

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$3.49

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

12354-9532 (21886)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

—

PnL

-$0.4

Record

51%

19907-19065 (38972)

Nobey1CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

421-645 (1066)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 22 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9f87f193...9e0df6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793271300

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $905

+$9.05

CrouchPredictions

Down — $397.81

+$52.4

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$63.79

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.87

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $194.56

+$52.92

pspspsps5

Down — $124.74

+$8.64

std0

Down — $120

-$14.39

ply-pm0

Down — $120

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Up — $0