Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$141.64
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 87.1¢ | $650.92 | $545.09 | -$105.83 | 56% 14287-11206 (25493) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 90.7¢ | $323.55 | $328.03 | +$4.47 | 60% 12076-7966 (20042) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 72.8¢ | $232.18 | $252.84 | +$20.66 | 56% 13634-10870 (24504) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 89.6¢ | $235.86 | $214.98 | -$20.88 | 49% 5097-5260 (10357) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 84.4¢ | $181.66 | $201.11 | +$19.45 | 53% 27038-24068 (51106) |
ST std0 | Upavg 85.4¢ | $132.48 | $121.78 | -$10.7 | 67% 53187-26596 (79783) |
AS asidjasiodja | Upavg 95.6¢ | $115.95 | $98.08 | +$1.36 | 61% 94365-59372 (153737) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $68.57 | $60 | -$8.57 | 56% 12354-9532 (21886) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.5¢ | $36.9 | $60 | +$23.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.6¢ | $31.67 | — | -$31.67 | |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 85.6¢ | $62.42 | $65.12 | +$2.7 | 55% 23757-19198 (42955) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.8¢ | $49 | — | -$49 | 57% 11882-8874 (20756) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $10.45 | — | -$10.45 | 62% 43662-26649 (70311) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $43.59 | $86 | +$42.41 | 59% 6632-4597 (11229) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 4.5¢ | $16.79 | — | -$16.79 | 46% 38019-44852 (82871) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $23.29 | $25 | +$1.71 | 55% 8511-6950 (15461) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 89.5¢ | $28.53 | $31.87 | +$3.34 | 65% 22359-12289 (34648) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Downavg 29.6¢ | $45.58 | — | -$41.93 | 55% 7296-5969 (13265) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $19.78 | $29.97 | +$10.19 | 66% 125109-64377 (189486) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $10 | +$3.5 | 39% 421-645 (1066) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.6¢ | $3.34 | — | -$3.34 | 52% 89796-84260 (174056) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $1.18 | $1.3 | +$0.12 | 55% 44462-36957 (81419) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $8.13 | $1.01 | +$7.37 | 48% 23169-25372 (48541) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3632-2823 (6455) |
Invested
$650.92
Value
$545.09
PnL
-$105.83
Record
56%
14287-11206 (25493)
Invested
$323.55
Value
$328.03
PnL
+$4.47
Record
60%
12076-7966 (20042)
Invested
$232.18
Value
$252.84
PnL
+$20.66
Record
56%
13634-10870 (24504)
Invested
$235.86
Value
$214.98
PnL
-$20.88
Record
49%
5097-5260 (10357)
Invested
$181.66
Value
$201.11
PnL
+$19.45
Record
53%
27038-24068 (51106)
Invested
$132.48
Value
$121.78
PnL
-$10.7
Record
67%
53187-26596 (79783)
Invested
$115.95
Value
$98.08
PnL
+$1.36
Record
61%
94365-59372 (153737)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$68.57
Value
$60
PnL
-$8.57
Record
56%
12354-9532 (21886)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.42
Value
$65.12
PnL
+$2.7
Record
55%
23757-19198 (42955)
Invested
$49
Value
—
PnL
-$49
Record
57%
11882-8874 (20756)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10.45
Value
—
PnL
-$10.45
Record
62%
43662-26649 (70311)
Invested
$43.59
Value
$86
PnL
+$42.41
Record
59%
6632-4597 (11229)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$16.79
Value
—
PnL
-$16.79
Record
46%
38019-44852 (82871)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$23.29
Value
$25
PnL
+$1.71
Record
55%
8511-6950 (15461)
Invested
$28.53
Value
$31.87
PnL
+$3.34
Record
65%
22359-12289 (34648)
Invested
$45.58
Value
—
PnL
-$41.93
Record
55%
7296-5969 (13265)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$10.19
Record
66%
125109-64377 (189486)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.5
Record
39%
421-645 (1066)
Invested
$3.34
Value
—
PnL
-$3.34
Record
52%
89796-84260 (174056)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$1.18
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0.12
Record
55%
44462-36957 (81419)
Invested
$8.13
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$7.37
Record
48%
23169-25372 (48541)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3632-2823 (6455)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Up — $545.09
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $328.03
GoodFallen
Up — $252.84
ply-pm0
Up — $214.98
spartacray
Up — $201.11
std0
Up — $121.78
asidjasiodja
Up — $98.08
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sir-upalot
Up — $65.12
EZTRADENL2
CTRDown — $0