Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 52%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 24 top traders (58%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares8,456

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,501

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 95¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$153.4	56% 29291-23029 (52320)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 48.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$49.71	56% 14287-11206 (25493)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$551.33	—	-$551.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$574.24	$1.2K	+$601.04
HO hoodquant	Downavg 95¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$117	93% 22942-1749 (24691)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 47.4¢	$909.86	$770.44	-$139.42	56% 13634-10870 (24504)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.4¢	$541.39	—	-$541.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$368.47	$770.44	+$401.98
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 71.4¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	57% 70317-53442 (123759)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$17.71	74% 102303-36356 (138659)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$682.02	$737.17	+$55.15	53% 27038-24068 (51106)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$368.48	$737.17	+$368.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.7¢	$313.54	—	-$313.54
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$430.66	$461	+$30.34	51% 17003-16557 (33560)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$302.71	—	-$302.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.8¢	$127.95	$461	+$333.05
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$486.51	$388.83	-$97.68	56% 12354-9532 (21886)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.8¢	$288.41	—	-$288.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$198.09	$388.83	+$190.74
NIULAI4	Downavg 94¢	$135.73	$114.46	-$21.27	77% 9332-2772 (12104)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 41.3¢	$242.23	$243.13	+$0.9	57% 11882-8874 (20756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.3¢	$151.46	—	-$151.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$90.77	$243.13	+$152.36
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 55.8¢	$372.73	—	-$372.73	56% 57762-44611 (102373)
machinelearned	Downavg 35¢	$240.21	$514.87	+$274.66	55% 8511-6950 (15461)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 50¢	$253.07	—	-$253.07	59% 6632-4597 (11229)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$255.07	$379.51	+$124.45	58% 37558-26812 (64370)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$194.56	$379.51	+$184.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$60.51	—	-$60.51
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$204.76	$232.71	+$27.96	60% 12076-7966 (20042)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$120.62	$232.71	+$112.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.5¢	$84.13	—	-$84.13
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$181.75	$174.6	-$7.15	67% 53187-26596 (79783)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$107.19	—	-$107.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$74.56	$174.6	+$100.04
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$192.19	$237.85	+$45.66	66% 111846-58190 (170036)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.2¢	$140.83	$237.85	+$97.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.2¢	$51.35	—	-$51.35
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 52.7¢	$125.76	$220.05	+$94.29	55% 23757-19198 (42955)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 50¢	$125	—	-$125	34% 18648-35642 (54290)
Atomforge	Downavg 97¢	$196	$202.06	+$6.06	65% 3980-2143 (6123)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$88.76	$114.53	+$25.78	55% 7296-5969 (13265)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$63.18	$114.53	+$51.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$25.57	—	-$25.57
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 95¢	$125.86	$104.32	-$21.54	66% 125109-64377 (189486)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95¢	$99.1	$104.32	+$5.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.6¢	$26.76	—	-$26.76
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 95¢	$120.77	$96.97	-$23.8	61% 94365-59372 (153737)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95¢	$92.12	$96.97	+$4.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.1¢	$28.65	—	-$28.65
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 95¢	$121.66	$97.36	-$24.3	52% 89796-84260 (174056)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95¢	$92.49	$97.36	+$4.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$29.17	—	-$29.17

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,914.6

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$153.4

Record

56%

29291-23029 (52320)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,125.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.71

Record

56%

14287-11206 (25493)

Both legs:

Up$551.3345.2¢-$551.33

Down$574.2448.9¢+$601.04

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,223

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$117

Record

93%

22942-1749 (24691)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$909.86

Value

$770.44

PnL

-$139.42

Record

56%

13634-10870 (24504)

Both legs:

Up$541.3947.4¢-$541.39

Down$368.4747.8¢+$401.98

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$1,284.38

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

70317-53442 (123759)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,752.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$17.71

Record

74%

102303-36356 (138659)

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$682.02

Value

$737.17

PnL

+$55.15

Record

53%

27038-24068 (51106)

Both legs:

Down$368.4850¢+$368.69

Up$313.5460.7¢-$313.54

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$430.66

Value

$461

PnL

+$30.34

Record

51%

17003-16557 (33560)

Both legs:

Up$302.7150.5¢-$302.71

Down$127.9527.8¢+$333.05

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$486.51

Value

$388.83

PnL

-$97.68

Record

56%

12354-9532 (21886)

Both legs:

Up$288.4159.8¢-$288.41

Down$198.0950.9¢+$190.74

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$135.73

Value

$114.46

PnL

-$21.27

Record

77%

9332-2772 (12104)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$242.23

Value

$243.13

PnL

+$0.9

Record

57%

11882-8874 (20756)

Both legs:

Up$151.4641.3¢-$151.46

Down$90.7737.3¢+$152.36

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$372.73

Value

—

PnL

-$372.73

Record

56%

57762-44611 (102373)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$240.21

Value

$514.87

PnL

+$274.66

Record

55%

8511-6950 (15461)

13897651CTR

Invested

$253.07

Value

—

PnL

-$253.07

Record

59%

6632-4597 (11229)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$255.07

Value

$379.51

PnL

+$124.45

Record

58%

37558-26812 (64370)

Both legs:

Down$194.5651.3¢+$184.95

Up$60.5150.9¢-$60.51

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$204.76

Value

$232.71

PnL

+$27.96

Record

60%

12076-7966 (20042)

Both legs:

Down$120.6251.8¢+$112.09

Up$84.1366.5¢-$84.13

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$181.75

Value

$174.6

PnL

-$7.15

Record

67%

53187-26596 (79783)

Both legs:

Up$107.1961.8¢-$107.19

Down$74.5642.7¢+$100.04

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$192.19

Value

$237.85

PnL

+$45.66

Record

66%

111846-58190 (170036)

Both legs:

Down$140.8359.2¢+$97.02

Up$51.3558.2¢-$51.35

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$125.76

Value

$220.05

PnL

+$94.29

Record

55%

23757-19198 (42955)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$125

Value

—

PnL

-$125

Record

34%

18648-35642 (54290)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$196

Value

$202.06

PnL

+$6.06

Record

65%

3980-2143 (6123)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.76

Value

$114.53

PnL

+$25.78

Record

55%

7296-5969 (13265)

Both legs:

Down$63.1855.2¢+$51.35

Up$25.5742.3¢-$25.57

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$125.86

Value

$104.32

PnL

-$21.54

Record

66%

125109-64377 (189486)

Both legs:

Invested

$120.77

Value

$96.97

PnL

-$23.8

Record

61%

94365-59372 (153737)

Both legs:

Invested

$121.66

Value

$97.36

PnL

-$24.3

Record

52%

89796-84260 (174056)

Both legs:

Down$92.4995¢+$4.87

Up$29.1752.2¢-$29.17

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 24 top traders (58%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x21befb2f...f5463a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793270100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.1K

+$153.4

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$49.71

hoodquant

Down — $2.3K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Down — $1.8K

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Down — $114.46

-$21.27

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