Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Signal

27 of 32 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares14,541

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$18.32

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$7.2K	$7.2K	+$7.17	59% 62091-43202 (105293)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 61.6¢	$803.5	$1.3K	+$500.24	57% 70316-53442 (123758)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 74.7¢	$895.85	$1.2K	+$304.15	48% 23158-25364 (48522)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 72.7¢	$685.35	$851.39	+$166.05	56% 14271-11198 (25469)
machinelearned	Upavg 91.3¢	$700.78	$725	+$24.22	55% 8499-6944 (15443)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.1¢	$334.5	$390.18	+$55.68	56% 13624-10860 (24484)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$249.33	$358.44	+$109.11	58% 37542-26799 (64341)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$165.37	$358.44	+$193.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$83.96	—	-$83.96
HO hoodquant	Upavg 93.3¢	$285.11	$305.6	+$20.49	93% 22919-1748 (24667)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 51.7¢	$147.12	$279.52	+$132.4	56% 12342-9526 (21868)
SP spartacray	Upavg 80.4¢	$215.86	$262.36	+$46.5	53% 27003-24047 (51050)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 60.7¢	$160.95	$265	+$104.05	57% 10235-7671 (17906)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 87.2¢	$225.64	$258.64	+$33	57% 7694-5897 (13591)
pspspsps5	Upavg 96.7¢	$157.53	$162.81	+$5.29	46% 38004-44821 (82825)
LI Little-big	Upavg 50.8¢	$127.66	$251.19	+$123.53	34% 18638-35630 (54268)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 57.1¢	$112.43	$145.35	+$32.92	66% 111826-58168 (169994)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 98¢	$149.12	$118.47	-$30.65	60% 12063-7951 (20014)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 55.7¢	$73.8	$132.45	+$58.65	57% 11869-8860 (20729)
ST std0	Upavg 93.5¢	$116.25	$100	-$16.25	67% 53175-26585 (79760)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$46.14	$82.16	+$36.02	66% 125065-64347 (189412)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 58¢	$42.71	$73.68	+$30.97	61% 94330-59348 (153678)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$36.4	$63.7	+$27.3	52% 89759-84223 (173982)
BoneOhio	Upavg 51¢	$51.2	$100.39	+$49.19	74% 102296-36354 (138650)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 51¢	$51.15	$100.29	+$49.14	58% 60266-43991 (104257)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 51¢	$43.8	$85.88	+$42.08	51% 19894-19056 (38950)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 75.5¢	$31.02	$41.08	+$10.06	55% 7279-5958 (13237)

0x50f7

Invested

$7,158.85

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$7.17

Record

59%

62091-43202 (105293)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$803.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$500.24

Record

57%

70316-53442 (123758)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$895.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$304.15

Record

48%

23158-25364 (48522)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$685.35

Value

$851.39

PnL

+$166.05

Record

56%

14271-11198 (25469)

machinelearned

Invested

$700.78

Value

$725

PnL

+$24.22

Record

55%

8499-6944 (15443)

GoodFallen

Invested

$334.5

Value

$390.18

PnL

+$55.68

Record

56%

13624-10860 (24484)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$249.33

Value

$358.44

PnL

+$109.11

Record

58%

37542-26799 (64341)

Both legs:

Up$165.3746.1¢+$193.07

Down$83.9648.9¢-$83.96

hoodquant

Invested

$285.11

Value

$305.6

PnL

+$20.49

Record

93%

22919-1748 (24667)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$147.12

Value

$279.52

PnL

+$132.4

Record

56%

12342-9526 (21868)

spartacray

Invested

$215.86

Value

$262.36

PnL

+$46.5

Record

53%

27003-24047 (51050)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$160.95

Value

$265

PnL

+$104.05

Record

57%

10235-7671 (17906)

wzbbb

Invested

$225.64

Value

$258.64

PnL

+$33

Record

57%

7694-5897 (13591)

pspspsps5

Invested

$157.53

Value

$162.81

PnL

+$5.29

Record

46%

38004-44821 (82825)

Little-big

Invested

$127.66

Value

$251.19

PnL

+$123.53

Record

34%

18638-35630 (54268)

antsaslyku

Invested

$112.43

Value

$145.35

PnL

+$32.92

Record

66%

111826-58168 (169994)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$149.12

Value

$118.47

PnL

-$30.65

Record

60%

12063-7951 (20014)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$73.8

Value

$132.45

PnL

+$58.65

Record

57%

11869-8860 (20729)

std0

Invested

$116.25

Value

$100

PnL

-$16.25

Record

67%

53175-26585 (79760)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$46.14

Value

$82.16

PnL

+$36.02

Record

66%

125065-64347 (189412)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$42.71

Value

$73.68

PnL

+$30.97

Record

61%

94330-59348 (153678)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$36.4

Value

$63.7

PnL

+$27.3

Record

52%

89759-84223 (173982)

BoneOhio

Invested

$51.2

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$49.19

Record

74%

102296-36354 (138650)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$51.15

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$49.14

Record

58%

60266-43991 (104257)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$43.8

Value

$85.88

PnL

+$42.08

Record

51%

19894-19056 (38950)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$31.02

Value

$41.08

PnL

+$10.06

Record

55%

7279-5958 (13237)

Smart Money Signal

27 of 32 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x784cdea5...7cf3d5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793269800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $7.2K

+$7.17

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.3K

+$500.24

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $1.2K

+$304.15

CrouchPredictions

Up — $851.39

+$166.05

machinelearned

Up — $725

+$24.22

GoodFallen

Up — $390.18

+$55.68

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$109.11

hoodquant

Up — $305.6

+$20.49

FairValueMachine

Up — $279.52

+$132.4

spartacray

Up — $262.36

+$46.5

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