Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$644.68

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 34 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares6,551

Combined PnL+$387.42

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,193

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Downavg 93.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$90.84	51% 871-847 (1718)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 80.3¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$104.6	56% 14271-11198 (25469)
SP spartacray	Downavg 69.4¢	$571.03	$667.77	+$96.74	53% 27003-24047 (51050)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 48¢	$603.83	$325.39	-$278.44	58% 37542-26799 (64341)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$450.16	—	-$450.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$153.67	$325.39	+$171.72
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 63.9¢	$436.17	$428.59	-$7.58	56% 13624-10860 (24484)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 53.6¢	$366.14	$375.67	+$9.53	56% 12342-9526 (21868)
Atomforge	Downavg 93.9¢	$372.3	$396.55	+$24.25	65% 3962-2141 (6103)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 39.6¢	$354.58	—	-$354.58	57% 70316-53442 (123758)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 88.6¢	$215.25	$242.91	+$27.66	57% 7694-5897 (13591)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 52.1¢	$196.58	—	-$196.58	59% 6624-4583 (11207)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 71.4¢	$204.06	$233.33	+$29.28	55% 7279-5958 (13237)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 92.8¢	$261.49	$194.89	-$66.6	46% 38004-44821 (82825)
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.8¢	$180.89	$194.89	+$14
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.2¢	$80.59	—	-$80.59
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.5¢	$200.7	$171	-$27.3	60% 12063-7951 (20014)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 52¢	$156	—	-$156	48% 23158-25364 (48522)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Downavg 48¢	$148.8	$310	+$161.2	63% 1758-1023 (2781)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 90.6¢	$189.03	$150.94	-$38.08	56% 57739-44602 (102341)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 52¢	$130	—	-$130	34% 18638-35630 (54268)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 49.1¢	$93.97	$120	+$26.03	67% 53175-26585 (79760)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$58.91	$120	+$61.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.4¢	$35.06	—	-$35.06
ohioism	Downavg 78.5¢	$133.77	$170.32	+$36.55	64% 39845-22764 (62609)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 94¢	$112.62	$109.52	-$3.1	52% 89759-84223 (173982)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 51.8¢	$106.94	$197.98	+$91.04	55% 23749-19190 (42939)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$123.47	$75.57	-$47.9	66% 111826-58168 (169994)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$48.11	$75.57	+$27.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$75.35	—	-$75.35
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 80.7¢	$120.92	$79.98	-$40.94	57% 11869-8860 (20729)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$80.59	$64.54	-$4.89	61% 94330-59348 (153678)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$50	$80.3	+$30.3	58% 12546-9207 (21753)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down

Invested

$1,381.16

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$90.84

Record

51%

871-847 (1718)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,311.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$104.6

Record

56%

14271-11198 (25469)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$571.03

Value

$667.77

PnL

+$96.74

Record

53%

27003-24047 (51050)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$603.83

Value

$325.39

PnL

-$278.44

Record

58%

37542-26799 (64341)

Both legs:

Up$450.1648¢-$450.16

Down$153.6747.2¢+$171.72

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$436.17

Value

$428.59

PnL

-$7.58

Record

56%

13624-10860 (24484)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$366.14

Value

$375.67

PnL

+$9.53

Record

56%

12342-9526 (21868)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$372.3

Value

$396.55

PnL

+$24.25

Record

65%

3962-2141 (6103)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$354.58

Value

—

PnL

-$354.58

Record

57%

70316-53442 (123758)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$215.25

Value

$242.91

PnL

+$27.66

Record

57%

7694-5897 (13591)

13897651CTR

Invested

$196.58

Value

—

PnL

-$196.58

Record

59%

6624-4583 (11207)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$204.06

Value

$233.33

PnL

+$29.28

Record

55%

7279-5958 (13237)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$261.49

Value

$194.89

PnL

-$66.6

Record

46%

38004-44821 (82825)

Both legs:

Down$180.8992.8¢+$14

Up$80.5951.2¢-$80.59

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$200.7

Value

$171

PnL

-$27.3

Record

60%

12063-7951 (20014)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$156

Value

—

PnL

-$156

Record

48%

23158-25364 (48522)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down

Invested

$148.8

Value

$310

PnL

+$161.2

Record

63%

1758-1023 (2781)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$189.03

Value

$150.94

PnL

-$38.08

Record

56%

57739-44602 (102341)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$130

Value

—

PnL

-$130

Record

34%

18638-35630 (54268)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$93.97

Value

$120

PnL

+$26.03

Record

67%

53175-26585 (79760)

Both legs:

Down$58.9149.1¢+$61.09

Up$35.0627.4¢-$35.06

ohioism

Down

Invested

$133.77

Value

$170.32

PnL

+$36.55

Record

64%

39845-22764 (62609)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$112.62

Value

$109.52

PnL

-$3.1

Record

52%

89759-84223 (173982)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$106.94

Value

$197.98

PnL

+$91.04

Record

55%

23749-19190 (42939)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$123.47

Value

$75.57

PnL

-$47.9

Record

66%

111826-58168 (169994)

Both legs:

Down$48.1163.7¢+$27.46

Up$75.3550.4¢-$75.35

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$120.92

Value

$79.98

PnL

-$40.94

Record

57%

11869-8860 (20729)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$80.59

Value

$64.54

PnL

-$4.89

Record

61%

94330-59348 (153678)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$50

Value

$80.3

PnL

+$30.3

Record

58%

12546-9207 (21753)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 34 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa60006aa...bb983e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793269500

Traders in this Market

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down — $1.5K

+$90.84

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

-$104.6

spartacray

Down — $667.77

+$96.74

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$278.44

GoodFallen

Down — $428.59

-$7.58

FairValueMachine

Down — $375.67

+$9.53

Atomforge

Down — $396.55

+$24.25

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$354.58

wzbbb

Down — $242.91

13897651

Up — $0