Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 87%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$826.01

Smart Money Signal

28 of 33 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up28 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,664

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,598

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Up — 85%Down — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$25.67	56% 29282-23029 (52311)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 65.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$45.65	56% 14271-11198 (25469)
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR	Downavg 52.7¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	45% 70-86 (156)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 42.2¢	$457.98	$858.46	+$400.48	58% 37542-26799 (64341)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$515.91	$682.67	+$166.76	56% 13624-10860 (24484)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.9¢	$360.93	$682.67	+$321.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$154.98	—	-$154.98
FairValueMachine	Upavg 54.8¢	$423.36	$451.39	+$28.03	56% 12342-9526 (21868)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$259.72	$339.02	+$79.3	59% 6624-4583 (11207)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$164.64	$339.02	+$174.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$95.08	—	-$95.08
pspspsps5	Upavg 79.7¢	$190.45	$232.71	+$42.26	46% 38004-44821 (82825)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 42.4¢	$130.21	$239.98	+$109.77	57% 11869-8860 (20729)
SP spartacrayCTR	Downavg 38.7¢	$235.59	—	-$235.59	53% 27003-24047 (51050)
machinelearned	Upavg 68.9¢	$205.75	$175	-$30.75	55% 8499-6944 (15443)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 60.6¢	$151.97	$235.01	+$83.04	66% 111826-58168 (169994)
ST std0	Upavg 70.8¢	$177.76	$162.74	-$15.02	67% 53175-26585 (79760)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 38¢	$157.63	—	-$157.63	55% 7279-5958 (13237)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 51.4¢	$95.46	$128.27	+$32.81	60% 12063-7951 (20014)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 56¢	$168	$300	+$132	48% 23158-25364 (48522)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 55.9¢	$86.22	$104.19	+$17.97	66% 125065-64347 (189412)
LI Little-big	Upavg 49¢	$73.5	$150	+$76.5	34% 18638-35630 (54268)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$49.84	$93.57	+$43.73	55% 23749-19190 (42939)
ohioism	Upavg 56¢	$84.05	$150.09	+$66.04	64% 39845-22764 (62609)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$35.7	$50.01	+$14.31	52% 89759-84223 (173982)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 61¢	$29.47	$41.78	+$13.06	61% 94330-59348 (153678)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 43¢	$39.36	$51.3	+$11.94	57% 7694-5897 (13591)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 76¢	$49.4	$30	-$16.8	65% 22322-12252 (34574)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 47¢	$23.53	$50.07	+$26.54	58% 50870-37018 (87888)

THG.

Invested

$2,541.31

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$25.67

Record

56%

29282-23029 (52311)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,470.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$45.65

Record

56%

14271-11198 (25469)

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

45%

70-86 (156)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$457.98

Value

$858.46

PnL

+$400.48

Record

58%

37542-26799 (64341)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$515.91

Value

$682.67

PnL

+$166.76

Record

56%

13624-10860 (24484)

Both legs:

Up$360.9352.9¢+$321.74

Down$154.9836.5¢-$154.98

FairValueMachine

Invested

$423.36

Value

$451.39

PnL

+$28.03

Record

56%

12342-9526 (21868)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$259.72

Value

$339.02

PnL

+$79.3

Record

59%

6624-4583 (11207)

Both legs:

Up$164.6448.6¢+$174.38

Down$95.0859¢-$95.08

pspspsps5

Invested

$190.45

Value

$232.71

PnL

+$42.26

Record

46%

38004-44821 (82825)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$130.21

Value

$239.98

PnL

+$109.77

Record

57%

11869-8860 (20729)

spartacrayCTR

Down

Invested

$235.59

Value

—

PnL

-$235.59

Record

53%

27003-24047 (51050)

machinelearned

Invested

$205.75

Value

$175

PnL

-$30.75

Record

55%

8499-6944 (15443)

antsaslyku

Invested

$151.97

Value

$235.01

PnL

+$83.04

Record

66%

111826-58168 (169994)

std0

Invested

$177.76

Value

$162.74

PnL

-$15.02

Record

67%

53175-26585 (79760)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$157.63

Value

—

PnL

-$157.63

Record

55%

7279-5958 (13237)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$95.46

Value

$128.27

PnL

+$32.81

Record

60%

12063-7951 (20014)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$168

Value

$300

PnL

+$132

Record

48%

23158-25364 (48522)

asdaefef

Invested

$86.22

Value

$104.19

PnL

+$17.97

Record

66%

125065-64347 (189412)

Little-big

Invested

$73.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$76.5

Record

34%

18638-35630 (54268)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$49.84

Value

$93.57

PnL

+$43.73

Record

55%

23749-19190 (42939)

ohioism

Invested

$84.05

Value

$150.09

PnL

+$66.04

Record

64%

39845-22764 (62609)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$35.7

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$14.31

Record

52%

89759-84223 (173982)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$29.47

Value

$41.78

PnL

+$13.06

Record

61%

94330-59348 (153678)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$39.36

Value

$51.3

PnL

+$11.94

Record

57%

7694-5897 (13591)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$49.4

Value

$30

PnL

-$16.8

Record

65%

22322-12252 (34574)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$23.53

Value

$50.07

PnL

+$26.54

Record

58%

50870-37018 (87888)

Smart Money Signal

28 of 33 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x964bb02a...83fe8c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793269200

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.6K

+$25.67

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.4K

-$45.65

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.5K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $858.46

+$400.48

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$166.76

FairValueMachine

Up — $451.39

+$28.03

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$79.3

pspspsps5

Up — $232.71

+$42.26

EZTRADENL2

Up — $239.98

spartacray

Down — $0