Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$543.96

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 21 top traders (57%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,783

Combined PnL+$137.37

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL-$681.33

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 97.3¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$83.77	56% 29282-23029 (52311)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$1.1K	$992.67	-$144.33	56% 14271-11198 (25469)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.2¢	$726.5	$992.67	+$266.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$410.49	—	-$410.49
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$446.25	$450.26	+$4.02	56% 13624-10860 (24484)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$218.79	—	-$218.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$227.46	$450.26	+$222.8
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$274.04	$218.32	-$55.72	56% 12342-9526 (21868)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$168.22	—	-$168.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$105.82	$218.32	+$112.5
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 47.1¢	$229.45	—	-$229.45	57% 10235-7671 (17906)
SE seeeeeebCTR	Upavg 53¢	$214.65	—	-$214.65	51% 703-676 (1379)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 45¢	$178	$113.46	-$64.54	55% 8499-6944 (15443)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$107.04	—	-$107.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$70.96	$113.46	+$42.5
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$207.91	$100.8	-$107.11	46% 38004-44821 (82825)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$112.61	—	-$112.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 94.5¢	$95.3	$100.8	+$5.5
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 80.9¢	$207.27	$174.26	-$33.01	66% 125065-64347 (189412)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.9¢	$140.92	$174.26	+$33.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$66.35	—	-$66.35
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$163.06	$145.52	-$15.19	55% 7279-5958 (13237)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.1¢	$36.18	—	-$36.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.3¢	$122.66	$145.52	+$20.99
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$103.22	$150.4	+$47.18	60% 12063-7951 (20014)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.8¢	$97.5	$150.4	+$52.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 4.3¢	$5.72	—	-$5.72
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$108.44	$92.64	-$15.8	53% 27003-24047 (51050)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$45.38	—	-$45.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.1¢	$63.06	$92.64	+$29.58
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$111.61	$120.7	+$9.08	67% 53175-26585 (79760)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.6¢	$26.93	—	-$26.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.2¢	$84.68	$120.7	+$36.02
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$93.37	—	-$93.37	59% 6624-4583 (11207)
ohioism	Downavg 95¢	$142.58	$150.08	+$7.5	64% 39845-22764 (62609)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$64.11	—	-$64.11	57% 11869-8860 (20729)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 96¢	$65.59	$40.42	-$25.18	55% 44432-36934 (81366)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 96¢	$110.88	$115.5	+$4.62	63% 51515-30317 (81832)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$53.15	—	-$53.15	56% 57739-44602 (102341)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$38.88	$55.17	+$16.29	55% 23749-19190 (42939)
└ Up leg	Upavg 18¢	$9	—	-$9
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.2¢	$29.88	$55.17	+$25.29
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$57.28	$98.07	+$40.79	66% 111826-58168 (169994)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 90.9¢	$77.3	$58.27	-$17.15	61% 94330-59348 (153678)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.9¢	$52.95	$58.27	+$3.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$20.72	—	-$20.72
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 96¢	$95.04	$99	+$3.96	93% 22919-1748 (24667)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 89.5¢	$66.7	$55.14	-$11.56	52% 89759-84223 (173982)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$10.36	—	-$10.36	48% 23158-25364 (48522)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,973.23

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$83.77

Record

56%

29282-23029 (52311)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,136.99

Value

$992.67

PnL

-$144.33

Record

56%

14271-11198 (25469)

Both legs:

Down$726.573.2¢+$266.16

Up$410.4948.8¢-$410.49

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$446.25

Value

$450.26

PnL

+$4.02

Record

56%

13624-10860 (24484)

Both legs:

Up$218.7952¢-$218.79

Down$227.4650.5¢+$222.8

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$274.04

Value

$218.32

PnL

-$55.72

Record

56%

12342-9526 (21868)

Both legs:

Up$168.2250.5¢-$168.22

Down$105.8248.5¢+$112.5

trdyugiolkwCTR

Invested

$229.45

Value

—

PnL

-$229.45

Record

57%

10235-7671 (17906)

seeeeeebCTR

Invested

$214.65

Value

—

PnL

-$214.65

Record

51%

703-676 (1379)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$178

Value

$113.46

PnL

-$64.54

Record

55%

8499-6944 (15443)

Both legs:

Up$107.0445¢-$107.04

Down$70.9662.5¢+$42.5

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$207.91

Value

$100.8

PnL

-$107.11

Record

46%

38004-44821 (82825)

Both legs:

Up$112.6149.9¢-$112.61

Down$95.394.5¢+$5.5

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.27

Value

$174.26

PnL

-$33.01

Record

66%

125065-64347 (189412)

Both legs:

Down$140.9280.9¢+$33.34

Up$66.3553¢-$66.35

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$163.06

Value

$145.52

PnL

-$15.19

Record

55%

7279-5958 (13237)

Both legs:

Up$36.1826.1¢-$36.18

Down$122.6684.3¢+$20.99

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$103.22

Value

$150.4

PnL

+$47.18

Record

60%

12063-7951 (20014)

Both legs:

Invested

$108.44

Value

$92.64

PnL

-$15.8

Record

53%

27003-24047 (51050)

Both legs:

Up$45.3829.2¢-$45.38

Down$63.0668.1¢+$29.58

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$111.61

Value

$120.7

PnL

+$9.08

Record

67%

53175-26585 (79760)

Both legs:

Up$26.9321.6¢-$26.93

Down$84.6870.2¢+$36.02

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$93.37

Value

—

PnL

-$93.37

Record

59%

6624-4583 (11207)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$142.58

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$7.5

Record

64%

39845-22764 (62609)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$64.11

Value

—

PnL

-$64.11

Record

57%

11869-8860 (20729)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$65.59

Value

$40.42

PnL

-$25.18

Record

55%

44432-36934 (81366)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$110.88

Value

$115.5

PnL

+$4.62

Record

63%

51515-30317 (81832)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$53.15

Value

—

PnL

-$53.15

Record

56%

57739-44602 (102341)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$38.88

Value

$55.17

PnL

+$16.29

Record

55%

23749-19190 (42939)

Both legs:

Up$918¢-$9

Down$29.8854.2¢+$25.29

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$57.28

Value

$98.07

PnL

+$40.79

Record

66%

111826-58168 (169994)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$77.3

Value

$58.27

PnL

-$17.15

Record

61%

94330-59348 (153678)

Both legs:

Down$52.9590.9¢+$3.57

Up$20.7253¢-$20.72

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$95.04

Value

$99

PnL

+$3.96

Record

93%

22919-1748 (24667)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$66.7

Value

$55.14

PnL

-$11.56

Record

52%

89759-84223 (173982)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$10.36

Value

—

PnL

-$10.36

Record

48%

23158-25364 (48522)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 21 top traders (57%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8d59145c...a324e9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793268600

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $3.1K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

trdyugiolkw

Up — $0

seeeeeeb

Up — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

pspspsps5

Arbitrage — excluded

asdaefef

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.19

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