Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$505.56

Smart Money Signal

17 of 24 top traders (71%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,908

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Up17 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,959

Combined PnL+$698.45

Down — 29%Up — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$787.15	$663.09	-$124.06	56% 14271-11198 (25469)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$303.65	—	-$303.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.9¢	$483.5	$663.09	+$179.59
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$556.24	$546.25	-$10	56% 13624-10860 (24484)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.6¢	$287.77	—	-$287.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$268.47	$546.25	+$277.77
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR	Downavg 50¢	$555	—	-$555	45% 70-86 (156)
SP spartacrayCTR	Downavg 69.9¢	$356.21	—	-$356.21	53% 27003-24047 (51050)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$295.26	$448.65	+$153.39	59% 6624-4583 (11207)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$219.84	$448.65	+$228.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$75.42	—	-$75.42
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 61.9¢	$432.34	$552.71	+$120.38	56% 12342-9526 (21868)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.9¢	$342.19	$552.71	+$210.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$90.15	—	-$90.15
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 44¢	$198.14	$203.65	+$5.51	57% 11869-8860 (20729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$112.32	—	-$112.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$85.82	$203.65	+$117.83
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$193.25	$360	+$166.75	57% 10235-7671 (17906)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$187.4	$360	+$172.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 5.6¢	$5.85	—	-$5.85
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 67¢	$448.68	$670.01	+$221.33	58% 37542-26799 (64341)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$175.11	$155.13	-$19.98	55% 23749-19190 (42939)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$102.38	—	-$102.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.9¢	$72.73	$155.13	+$82.4
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 49¢	$147	$300	+$153	48% 23158-25364 (48522)
LI Little-big	Upavg 49¢	$122.5	$250	+$127.5	34% 18638-35630 (54268)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 85¢	$139.58	$107.17	-$32.41	77% 9323-2765 (12088)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$91.8	—	-$91.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.6¢	$47.78	$107.17	+$59.39
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$66.71	—	-$66.71	57% 7694-5897 (13591)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 60¢	$64.57	$100.39	+$35.82	58% 60266-43991 (104257)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Downavg 68¢	$88.4	—	-$88.4	51% 703-676 (1379)
ST std0CTR<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$56.53	—	-$56.53	67% 53175-26585 (79760)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 60¢	$60.17	$100.29	+$40.12	56% 57739-44602 (102341)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 60¢	$53.7	$64.51	+$10.81	66% 111826-58168 (169994)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 70¢	$41.55	—	-$41.55	64% 39845-22764 (62609)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 90.1¢	$139.72	$155	+$15.28	55% 44432-36934 (81366)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$39.6	—	-$39.6	55% 7279-5958 (13237)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 96¢	$71.67	$54.5	-$17.17	63% 51515-30317 (81832)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 40¢	$34.22	$76.46	+$42.24	55% 8499-6944 (15443)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 67.9¢	$57.32	$84.42	+$27.1	66% 125065-64347 (189412)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$787.15

Value

$663.09

PnL

-$124.06

Record

56%

14271-11198 (25469)

Both legs:

Down$303.6538.1¢-$303.65

Up$483.572.9¢+$179.59

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$556.24

Value

$546.25

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

13624-10860 (24484)

Both legs:

Down$287.7760.6¢-$287.77

Up$268.4749.1¢+$277.77

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR

Down

Invested

$555

Value

—

PnL

-$555

Record

45%

70-86 (156)

spartacrayCTR

Down

Invested

$356.21

Value

—

PnL

-$356.21

Record

53%

27003-24047 (51050)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$295.26

Value

$448.65

PnL

+$153.39

Record

59%

6624-4583 (11207)

Both legs:

Up$219.8449¢+$228.81

Down$75.4241¢-$75.42

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$432.34

Value

$552.71

PnL

+$120.38

Record

56%

12342-9526 (21868)

Both legs:

Up$342.1961.9¢+$210.53

Down$90.1561.1¢-$90.15

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$198.14

Value

$203.65

PnL

+$5.51

Record

57%

11869-8860 (20729)

Both legs:

Down$112.3244¢-$112.32

Up$85.8242.1¢+$117.83

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$193.25

Value

$360

PnL

+$166.75

Record

57%

10235-7671 (17906)

Both legs:

Up$187.452.1¢+$172.6

Down$5.855.6¢-$5.85

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$448.68

Value

$670.01

PnL

+$221.33

Record

58%

37542-26799 (64341)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$175.11

Value

$155.13

PnL

-$19.98

Record

55%

23749-19190 (42939)

Both legs:

Down$102.3866.9¢-$102.38

Up$72.7346.9¢+$82.4

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$147

Value

$300

PnL

+$153

Record

48%

23158-25364 (48522)

Little-big

Invested

$122.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$127.5

Record

34%

18638-35630 (54268)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$139.58

Value

$107.17

PnL

-$32.41

Record

77%

9323-2765 (12088)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.71

Value

—

PnL

-$66.71

Record

57%

7694-5897 (13591)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$64.57

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$35.82

Record

58%

60266-43991 (104257)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$88.4

Value

—

PnL

-$88.4

Record

51%

703-676 (1379)

std0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.53

Value

—

PnL

-$56.53

Record

67%

53175-26585 (79760)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$60.17

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$40.12

Record

56%

57739-44602 (102341)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$53.7

Value

$64.51

PnL

+$10.81

Record

66%

111826-58168 (169994)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.55

Value

—

PnL

-$41.55

Record

64%

39845-22764 (62609)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$139.72

Value

$155

PnL

+$15.28

Record

55%

44432-36934 (81366)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.6

Value

—

PnL

-$39.6

Record

55%

7279-5958 (13237)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$71.67

Value

$54.5

PnL

-$17.17

Record

63%

51515-30317 (81832)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$34.22

Value

$76.46

PnL

+$42.24

Record

55%

8499-6944 (15443)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$57.32

Value

$84.42

PnL

+$27.1

Record

66%

125065-64347 (189412)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 24 top traders (71%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8f22442a...a97c71

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793268300

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825

Down — $0

spartacray

Down — $0

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

trdyugiolkw

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $670.01

sir-upalot

Arbitrage — excluded