Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 86%
4 arb excluded
$2.7K
$-4.5K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 23 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | $-4.7K | 56% 3630-2819 (6449) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $837.24 | $826 | -$11.24 | 56% 14271-11198 (25469) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.7¢ | $608.44 | $826 | +$217.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.4¢ | $228.8 | — | -$228.8 | |
SP spartacray | Downavg 83.7¢ | $240.4 | $247.31 | +$6.91 | 53% 27003-24047 (51050) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 83.5¢ | $242.67 | $290.76 | +$48.09 | 62% 43657-26640 (70297) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $186.11 | $160.39 | -$25.71 | 56% 13624-10860 (24484) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.9¢ | $105.76 | $160.39 | +$54.63 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.6¢ | $80.35 | — | -$80.35 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 52.4¢ | $141.35 | $268 | +$126.65 | 58% 37542-26799 (64341) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $130.37 | $112.13 | -$18.24 | 59% 6624-4583 (11207) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $70.49 | — | -$70.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.4¢ | $59.88 | $112.13 | +$52.25 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 68.1¢ | $85.17 | $125.03 | +$39.86 | 57% 11869-8860 (20729) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 82.1¢ | $91.85 | $98 | +$6.15 | 55% 7279-5958 (13237) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.3¢ | $5.28 | — | -$5.28 | 46% 38004-44821 (82825) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $55.82 | $54 | -$1.82 | 60% 12063-7951 (20014) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $59.08 | $63.81 | +$4.73 | 52% 89759-84223 (173982) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 25.5¢ | $71.48 | $34.48 | -$37 | 56% 12342-9526 (21868) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.6¢ | $24 | $34.48 | +$10.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.5¢ | $47.48 | — | -$47.48 | |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $59.83 | $66.2 | +$6.37 | 61% 94330-59348 (153678) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $46.62 | $50 | +$3.38 | 55% 23749-19190 (42939) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $42.05 | $51.84 | +$9.79 | 66% 125065-64347 (189412) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $47.05 | $44.28 | -$2.77 | 66% 111826-58168 (169994) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $34.5 | $51.49 | +$16.99 | 34% 18638-35630 (54268) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $30.89 | $20.44 | -$10.45 | 55% 8499-6944 (15443) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $32.45 | $40.92 | +$8.47 | 65% 3962-2141 (6103) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.9¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 59% 62091-43202 (105293) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $20 | $25 | +$5 | 50% 7741-7756 (15497) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $20 | +$8.6 | 55% 44432-36934 (81366) |
ST std0<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $6.24 | $7 | +$0.76 | 67% 53175-26585 (79760) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $7.3 | $10 | +$2.7 | 58% 60266-43991 (104257) |
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
56%
3630-2819 (6449)
Invested
$837.24
Value
$826
PnL
-$11.24
Record
56%
14271-11198 (25469)
Both legs:
Invested
$240.4
Value
$247.31
PnL
+$6.91
Record
53%
27003-24047 (51050)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$242.67
Value
$290.76
PnL
+$48.09
Record
62%
43657-26640 (70297)
Invested
$186.11
Value
$160.39
PnL
-$25.71
Record
56%
13624-10860 (24484)
Both legs:
Invested
$141.35
Value
$268
PnL
+$126.65
Record
58%
37542-26799 (64341)
Invested
$130.37
Value
$112.13
PnL
-$18.24
Record
59%
6624-4583 (11207)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.17
Value
$125.03
PnL
+$39.86
Record
57%
11869-8860 (20729)
Invested
$91.85
Value
$98
PnL
+$6.15
Record
55%
7279-5958 (13237)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
—
PnL
-$5.28
Record
46%
38004-44821 (82825)
Invested
$55.82
Value
$54
PnL
-$1.82
Record
60%
12063-7951 (20014)
Invested
$59.08
Value
$63.81
PnL
+$4.73
Record
52%
89759-84223 (173982)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$71.48
Value
$34.48
PnL
-$37
Record
56%
12342-9526 (21868)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.83
Value
$66.2
PnL
+$6.37
Record
61%
94330-59348 (153678)
Invested
$46.62
Value
$50
PnL
+$3.38
Record
55%
23749-19190 (42939)
Invested
$42.05
Value
$51.84
PnL
+$9.79
Record
66%
125065-64347 (189412)
Invested
$47.05
Value
$44.28
PnL
-$2.77
Record
66%
111826-58168 (169994)
Invested
$34.5
Value
$51.49
PnL
+$16.99
Record
34%
18638-35630 (54268)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$30.89
Value
$20.44
PnL
-$10.45
Record
55%
8499-6944 (15443)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$32.45
Value
$40.92
PnL
+$8.47
Record
65%
3962-2141 (6103)
Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
59%
62091-43202 (105293)
Invested
$20
Value
$25
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
7741-7756 (15497)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.6
Record
55%
44432-36934 (81366)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.76
Record
67%
53175-26585 (79760)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.7
Record
58%
60266-43991 (104257)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
Down — $247.31
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $290.76
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $268
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Down — $125.03
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $98
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0