Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$299.45

Smart Money Signal

19 of 31 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,438

Combined PnL+$559.54

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,471

Combined PnL-$260.09

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$30.51	56% 29282-23029 (52311)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 83.5¢	$972.35	$1.1K	+$136.69	56% 14271-11198 (25469)
machinelearned	Upavg 64.1¢	$340.18	$464	+$123.82	55% 8499-6944 (15443)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 99.1¢	$217.03	$219	+$1.97	55% 44432-36934 (81366)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$164.45	$188.53	+$24.08	60% 12063-7951 (20014)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.4¢	$42.68	—	-$42.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$121.77	$188.53	+$66.75
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 53¢	$181.64	$186.94	+$5.3	49% 5083-5248 (10331)
SP spartacray	Upavg 78.4¢	$169.51	$176.4	+$6.9	53% 27003-24047 (51050)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 70¢	$94.66	$100	+$5.34	51% 17000-16552 (33552)
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.1¢	$24.66	—	-$24.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$70	$100	+$30
FairValueMachine	Upavg 43.6¢	$129.3	$150	+$20.7	56% 12342-9526 (21868)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 1.7¢	$83.42	—	+$3.91	48% 23158-25364 (48522)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$134.24	$210	+$75.76	56% 13624-10860 (24484)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$112.32	$210	+$97.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.1¢	$21.91	—	-$21.91
Atomforge	Upavg 51.5¢	$146.96	$285.48	+$138.52	65% 3962-2141 (6103)
ST std0	Upavg 92.1¢	$152.25	$139.99	-$12.26	67% 53175-26585 (79760)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 75.4¢	$108.11	$121.28	+$13.17	66% 125065-64347 (189412)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 5.1¢	$12.39	—	-$12.39	46% 38004-44821 (82825)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 60¢	$131.68	—	-$131.68	57% 11869-8860 (20729)
NIULAI4	Upavg 95.5¢	$107.03	$107.63	+$0.6	77% 9323-2765 (12088)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 78.8¢	$87.43	$93.61	+$6.18	52% 89759-84223 (173982)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 76.2¢	$44.41	$50	+$5.59	49% 77787-81260 (159047)
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.7¢	$6.33	—	-$6.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.2¢	$38.08	$50	+$11.92
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 63.3¢	$101.2	$160	+$58.8	57% 10235-7671 (17906)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 95.3¢	$60.99	$59.98	-$0.43	65% 22322-12252 (34574)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 30.3¢	$22.94	—	-$22.94	57% 7694-5897 (13591)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 96¢	$22.68	$12.01	-$9.17	55% 7279-5958 (13237)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$35.33	—	-$35.33	59% 6624-4583 (11207)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 71¢	$36.59	$51.54	+$14.95	56% 57739-44602 (102341)

THG.

Invested

$3,020.49

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$30.51

Record

56%

29282-23029 (52311)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$972.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$136.69

Record

56%

14271-11198 (25469)

machinelearned

Invested

$340.18

Value

$464

PnL

+$123.82

Record

55%

8499-6944 (15443)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$217.03

Value

$219

PnL

+$1.97

Record

55%

44432-36934 (81366)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$164.45

Value

$188.53

PnL

+$24.08

Record

60%

12063-7951 (20014)

Both legs:

Down$42.6819.4¢-$42.68

Up$121.7764.6¢+$66.75

ply-pm0

Invested

$181.64

Value

$186.94

PnL

+$5.3

Record

49%

5083-5248 (10331)

spartacray

Invested

$169.51

Value

$176.4

PnL

+$6.9

Record

53%

27003-24047 (51050)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$94.66

Value

$100

PnL

+$5.34

Record

51%

17000-16552 (33552)

Both legs:

Down$24.6611.1¢-$24.66

Up$7070¢+$30

FairValueMachine

Invested

$129.3

Value

$150

PnL

+$20.7

Record

56%

12342-9526 (21868)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$83.42

Value

—

PnL

+$3.91

Record

48%

23158-25364 (48522)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$134.24

Value

$210

PnL

+$75.76

Record

56%

13624-10860 (24484)

Both legs:

Up$112.3253.5¢+$97.68

Down$21.9125.1¢-$21.91

Atomforge

Invested

$146.96

Value

$285.48

PnL

+$138.52

Record

65%

3962-2141 (6103)

std0

Invested

$152.25

Value

$139.99

PnL

-$12.26

Record

67%

53175-26585 (79760)

asdaefef

Invested

$108.11

Value

$121.28

PnL

+$13.17

Record

66%

125065-64347 (189412)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.39

Value

—

PnL

-$12.39

Record

46%

38004-44821 (82825)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$131.68

Value

—

PnL

-$131.68

Record

57%

11869-8860 (20729)

NIULAI4

Invested

$107.03

Value

$107.63

PnL

+$0.6

Record

77%

9323-2765 (12088)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$87.43

Value

$93.61

PnL

+$6.18

Record

52%

89759-84223 (173982)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$44.41

Value

$50

PnL

+$5.59

Record

49%

77787-81260 (159047)

Both legs:

Down$6.334.7¢-$6.33

Up$38.0876.2¢+$11.92

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$101.2

Value

$160

PnL

+$58.8

Record

57%

10235-7671 (17906)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$60.99

Value

$59.98

PnL

-$0.43

Record

65%

22322-12252 (34574)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.94

Value

—

PnL

-$22.94

Record

57%

7694-5897 (13591)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$22.68

Value

$12.01

PnL

-$9.17

Record

55%

7279-5958 (13237)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.33

Value

—

PnL

-$35.33

Record

59%

6624-4583 (11207)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$36.59

Value

$51.54

PnL

+$14.95

Record

56%

57739-44602 (102341)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 31 top traders (61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4d9b750f...960530

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793265000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.1K

+$30.51

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.1K

+$136.69

machinelearned

Up — $464

+$123.82

MayorMamdani

Up — $219

+$1.97

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$24.08

ply-pm0

Up — $186.94

+$5.3

spartacray

Up — $176.4

+$6.9

gansinimen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.34

FairValueMachine

Up — $150

+$20.7

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Down — $0

+$3.91

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