Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Up 88%
3 arb excluded
$7.7K
$104.17
Smart Money Signal
18 of 21 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 59% 62084-43185 (105269) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$24.36 | 93% 22893-1747 (24640) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 95.5¢ | $374.61 | $392.34 | +$17.72 | 46% 37996-44793 (82789) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 68.7¢ | $393.92 | $488.04 | +$94.11 | 59% 6614-4574 (11188) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.7¢ | $335.21 | $488.04 | +$152.82 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47¢ | $58.71 | — | -$58.71 | |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 98.2¢ | $273.4 | $278.36 | +$4.96 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 85.5¢ | $299.42 | $350.05 | +$50.62 | 56% 14197-11140 (25337) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 93.9¢ | $93.48 | $93 | -$0.48 | 55% 7269-5950 (13219) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 93.9¢ | $87.32 | $93 | +$5.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 7¢ | $6.16 | — | -$6.16 | |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 87.1¢ | $79.55 | $83.43 | +$3.88 | 53% 27000-24047 (51047) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 91.6¢ | $143.24 | $156.3 | +$13.06 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $46.78 | — | -$46.78 | 34% 18628-35622 (54250) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $47 | $45 | -$2 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 10¢ | $6.05 | — | -$6.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 91¢ | $40.95 | $45 | +$4.05 | |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $41.12 | $30 | -$11.12 | 49% 5071-5242 (10313) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 75.4¢ | $44.52 | $59.03 | +$14.51 | 57% 10233-7665 (17898) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $27.04 | $26 | -$1.04 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $24.76 | $50.02 | +$25.26 | 58% 50863-37010 (87873) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 94.1¢ | $47.04 | $49.99 | +$2.95 | 55% 8485-6933 (15418) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $41.36 | $44 | +$2.64 | 60% 12052-7944 (19996) |
ST std0<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $38 | $40 | +$2 | 67% 53174-26585 (79759) |
8A 0x8a69...5728CTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 22% 6-21 (27) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 92.1¢ | $26.7 | $29 | +$2.3 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $0.09 | $0.11 | +$0.02 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 40% 410-627 (1037) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3628-2817 (6445) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $11.05 | — | +$0.81 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
59%
62084-43185 (105269)
Invested
$2,411.64
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$24.36
Record
93%
22893-1747 (24640)
pspspsps5Invested
$374.61
Value
$392.34
PnL
+$17.72
Record
46%
37996-44793 (82789)
Invested
$393.92
Value
$488.04
PnL
+$94.11
Record
59%
6614-4574 (11188)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniInvested
$273.4
Value
$278.36
PnL
+$4.96
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
Invested
$299.42
Value
$350.05
PnL
+$50.62
Record
56%
14197-11140 (25337)
Invested
$93.48
Value
$93
PnL
-$0.48
Record
55%
7269-5950 (13219)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.55
Value
$83.43
PnL
+$3.88
Record
53%
27000-24047 (51047)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$143.24
Value
$156.3
PnL
+$13.06
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$46.78
Value
—
PnL
-$46.78
Record
34%
18628-35622 (54250)
Invested
$47
Value
$45
PnL
-$2
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.12
Value
$30
PnL
-$11.12
Record
49%
5071-5242 (10313)
Invested
$44.52
Value
$59.03
PnL
+$14.51
Record
57%
10233-7665 (17898)
Invested
$27.04
Value
$26
PnL
-$1.04
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$24.76
Value
$50.02
PnL
+$25.26
Record
58%
50863-37010 (87873)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$47.04
Value
$49.99
PnL
+$2.95
Record
55%
8485-6933 (15418)
Invested
$41.36
Value
$44
PnL
+$2.64
Record
60%
12052-7944 (19996)
Invested
$38
Value
$40
PnL
+$2
Record
67%
53174-26585 (79759)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
22%
6-21 (27)
Invested
$26.7
Value
$29
PnL
+$2.3
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$0.02
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
410-627 (1037)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3628-2817 (6445)
Invested
$11.05
Value
—
PnL
+$0.81
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
hoodquant
Up — $2.4K
pspspsps5
Up — $392.34
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
Up — $278.36
CrouchPredictions
Up — $350.05
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
Up — $83.43
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $156.3
Little-big
CTRDown — $0