Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 82%
2 arb excluded
$8.7K
$320.87
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $6.9K | $7.0K | +$6.96 | 59% 62084-43185 (105269) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 63.9¢ | $259.99 | $335.7 | +$75.71 | 54% 15347-12855 (28202) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $169.53 | $157.47 | -$12.06 | 59% 6614-4574 (11188) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54¢ | $90.11 | — | -$90.11 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $79.42 | $157.47 | +$78.05 | |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 95¢ | $190.12 | $200.13 | +$10.01 | 57% 7686-5888 (13574) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 85.3¢ | $137.45 | $151.89 | +$14.43 | 60% 12052-7944 (19996) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 49.6¢ | $105.1 | $212.07 | +$106.97 | 34% 18628-35622 (54250) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.2¢ | $49.8 | — | -$49.8 | 56% 14197-11140 (25337) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 42.5¢ | $84.24 | $198.22 | +$113.98 | 58% 50863-37010 (87873) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $92.08 | $97.26 | +$5.18 | 56% 13606-10852 (24458) |
 ohioism | Downavg 90¢ | $105.99 | $117.77 | +$11.78 | 64% 39836-22759 (62595) |
 OhioRiskManagementARB<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $35.82 | $36 | +$0.18 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 2¢ | $3.06 | — | -$3.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 91¢ | $32.76 | $36 | +$3.24 | |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $49.84 | $66.47 | +$16.63 | 55% 8485-6933 (15418) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $41.5 | $46.92 | +$5.42 | 49% 5071-5242 (10313) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 86.3¢ | $54.05 | $60.21 | +$6.16 | 53% 27000-24047 (51047) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 76.8¢ | $29.95 | $30 | +$0.05 | 56% 12327-9516 (21843) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79.5¢ | $25.09 | $31.57 | +$6.48 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92.9¢ | $28.92 | $31.12 | +$2.2 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
ST std0CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 67% 53174-26585 (79759) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $9.93 | — | -$9.93 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 40% 410-627 (1037) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3628-2817 (6445) |
Invested
$6,949.06
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$6.96
Record
59%
62084-43185 (105269)
Invested
$259.99
Value
$335.7
PnL
+$75.71
Record
54%
15347-12855 (28202)
Invested
$169.53
Value
$157.47
PnL
-$12.06
Record
59%
6614-4574 (11188)
Both legs:
Invested
$190.12
Value
$200.13
PnL
+$10.01
Record
57%
7686-5888 (13574)
Invested
$137.45
Value
$151.89
PnL
+$14.43
Record
60%
12052-7944 (19996)
Invested
$105.1
Value
$212.07
PnL
+$106.97
Record
34%
18628-35622 (54250)
Invested
$49.8
Value
—
PnL
-$49.8
Record
56%
14197-11140 (25337)
Invested
$84.24
Value
$198.22
PnL
+$113.98
Record
58%
50863-37010 (87873)
Invested
$92.08
Value
$97.26
PnL
+$5.18
Record
56%
13606-10852 (24458)
ohioismInvested
$105.99
Value
$117.77
PnL
+$11.78
Record
64%
39836-22759 (62595)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100Invested
$35.82
Value
$36
PnL
+$0.18
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Both legs:
machinelearned<$100Invested
$49.84
Value
$66.47
PnL
+$16.63
Record
55%
8485-6933 (15418)
Invested
$41.5
Value
$46.92
PnL
+$5.42
Record
49%
5071-5242 (10313)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$60.21
PnL
+$6.16
Record
53%
27000-24047 (51047)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$29.95
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
12327-9516 (21843)
Invested
$25.09
Value
$31.57
PnL
+$6.48
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$28.92
Value
$31.12
PnL
+$2.2
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
67%
53174-26585 (79759)
Invested
$9.93
Value
—
PnL
-$9.93
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
410-627 (1037)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3628-2817 (6445)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $7.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $335.7
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Down — $200.13
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $151.89
Little-big
Down — $212.07
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
PBot-6
Down — $198.22
GoodFallen
Down — $97.26
ohioism
Down — $117.77