Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
-$147.8
Smart Money Signal
16 of 27 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 83.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$33.86 | 56% 14197-11140 (25337) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 70.5¢ | $676.45 | $768.31 | +$91.86 | 54% 15347-12855 (28202) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 87¢ | $449.77 | $452.76 | +$2.99 | 49% 5071-5242 (10313) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 65.7¢ | $342.56 | $429.42 | +$86.86 | 56% 13606-10852 (24458) |
TR trdyugiolkw | Downavg 79.8¢ | $322.4 | $240 | -$82.4 | 57% 10233-7665 (17898) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 59.5¢ | $191.78 | $196.73 | +$4.95 | 56% 12327-9516 (21843) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 95¢ | $186.15 | $189 | +$2.85 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 73.5¢ | $156.39 | $181.35 | +$24.96 | 53% 27000-24047 (51047) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 86.5¢ | $112.46 | $127.32 | +$14.86 | 60% 12052-7944 (19996) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90.3¢ | $97.88 | $98.87 | +$0.99 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
ST std0 | Downavg 93.4¢ | $121.83 | $95.43 | -$26.4 | 67% 53174-26585 (79759) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 95.4¢ | $93.15 | $88.55 | -$4.61 | 55% 7269-5950 (13219) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $78.77 | — | -$78.77 | 34% 18628-35622 (54250) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $73.56 | — | -$73.56 | 59% 6614-4574 (11188) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $58.26 | $56.71 | -$1.56 | 57% 11862-8849 (20711) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67¢ | $38 | $56.71 | +$18.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10.7¢ | $20.26 | — | -$20.26 | |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $32.74 | $23.18 | -$9.56 | 55% 8485-6933 (15418) |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $3.66 | — | -$3.66 | 77% 9320-2762 (12082) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $43.35 | $30.14 | -$13.21 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 14.2¢ | $28.53 | — | -$28.53 | 46% 37996-44793 (82789) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.8¢ | $8.34 | — | -$8.34 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $9.84 | $15.52 | +$5.68 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR | Upavg 16.6¢ | $128.48 | — | -$9.64 | 61% 94291-59323 (153614) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 51% 19890-19043 (38933) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $22.38 | — | -$6.61 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $1.48 | $1.68 | +$0.2 | 56% 57728-44595 (102323) |
Invested
$1,067.57
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$33.86
Record
56%
14197-11140 (25337)
Invested
$676.45
Value
$768.31
PnL
+$91.86
Record
54%
15347-12855 (28202)
Invested
$449.77
Value
$452.76
PnL
+$2.99
Record
49%
5071-5242 (10313)
Invested
$342.56
Value
$429.42
PnL
+$86.86
Record
56%
13606-10852 (24458)
Invested
$322.4
Value
$240
PnL
-$82.4
Record
57%
10233-7665 (17898)
FairValueMachineInvested
$191.78
Value
$196.73
PnL
+$4.95
Record
56%
12327-9516 (21843)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$186.15
Value
$189
PnL
+$2.85
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$156.39
Value
$181.35
PnL
+$24.96
Record
53%
27000-24047 (51047)
Invested
$112.46
Value
$127.32
PnL
+$14.86
Record
60%
12052-7944 (19996)
Invested
$97.88
Value
$98.87
PnL
+$0.99
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$121.83
Value
$95.43
PnL
-$26.4
Record
67%
53174-26585 (79759)
Invested
$93.15
Value
$88.55
PnL
-$4.61
Record
55%
7269-5950 (13219)
Invested
$78.77
Value
—
PnL
-$78.77
Record
34%
18628-35622 (54250)
Invested
$73.56
Value
—
PnL
-$73.56
Record
59%
6614-4574 (11188)
Invested
$58.26
Value
$56.71
PnL
-$1.56
Record
57%
11862-8849 (20711)
Both legs:
machinelearned<$100Invested
$32.74
Value
$23.18
PnL
-$9.56
Record
55%
8485-6933 (15418)
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
$3.66
Value
—
PnL
-$3.66
Record
77%
9320-2762 (12082)
Invested
$43.35
Value
$30.14
PnL
-$13.21
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$28.53
Value
—
PnL
-$28.53
Record
46%
37996-44793 (82789)
Invested
$8.34
Value
—
PnL
-$8.34
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$15.52
PnL
+$5.68
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Invested
$128.48
Value
—
PnL
-$9.64
Record
61%
94291-59323 (153614)
Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
51%
19890-19043 (38933)
Invested
$22.38
Value
—
PnL
-$6.61
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$1.48
Value
$1.68
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
57728-44595 (102323)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $768.31
ply-pm0
Down — $452.76
GoodFallen
Down — $429.42
trdyugiolkw
Down — $240
FairValueMachine
Down — $196.73
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $189
spartacray
Down — $181.35
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $127.32
asdaefef
Down — $98.87