Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 79%
8 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$151.43
Smart Money Signal
12 of 15 top traders (80%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $670.54 | $686.09 | +$15.55 | 54% 15347-12855 (28202) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.8¢ | $451.22 | $686.09 | +$234.86 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.5¢ | $219.31 | — | -$219.31 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $305.13 | $306.8 | +$1.67 | 56% 14197-11140 (25337) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 12.4¢ | $90.46 | — | -$90.46 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70¢ | $214.67 | $306.8 | +$92.13 | |
 AtomforgeCTR | Upavg 46¢ | $295.2 | — | -$295.2 | 65% 3956-2135 (6091) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $245.52 | $313.58 | +$68.06 | 56% 13606-10852 (24458) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.7¢ | $199.84 | $313.58 | +$113.74 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.4¢ | $45.68 | — | -$45.68 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 59.6¢ | $176.09 | $175 | -$1.09 | 55% 8485-6933 (15418) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.3¢ | $71.84 | — | -$71.84 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.6¢ | $104.25 | $175 | +$70.75 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $187.37 | $270.05 | +$82.68 | 57% 11862-8849 (20711) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.3¢ | $133.56 | $145.52 | +$11.96 | 49% 5071-5242 (10313) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.3¢ | $87.75 | $145.52 | +$57.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.4¢ | $45.81 | — | -$45.81 | |
SP spartacrayARB<$100 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $128.4 | $142.5 | +$14.1 | 53% 27000-24047 (51047) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.2¢ | $94.3 | $142.5 | +$48.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.1¢ | $34.1 | — | -$34.1 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $100.36 | $90 | -$10.36 | 56% 12327-9516 (21843) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33¢ | $46.36 | — | -$46.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $54 | $90 | +$36 | |
ST std0ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.2¢ | $92.63 | $125 | +$32.37 | 67% 53174-26585 (79759) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.2¢ | $76.5 | $125 | +$48.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.5¢ | $16.13 | — | -$16.13 | |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 95.8¢ | $161.94 | $169 | +$7.06 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.2¢ | $51.4 | — | -$51.4 | 55% 17594-14210 (31804) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $59.69 | $92.65 | +$32.96 | 60% 12052-7944 (19996) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 59.4¢ | $41.63 | $70.05 | +$28.42 | 59% 6614-4574 (11188) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $39.94 | $56.3 | +$16.36 | 55% 23740-19185 (42925) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $33.98 | $45.38 | +$11.4 | 66% 125021-64333 (189354) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $20.15 | $39.51 | +$19.36 | 55% 7269-5950 (13219) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.5¢ | $17.38 | — | -$17.38 | 57% 7686-5888 (13574) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $20.18 | $21.42 | +$1.24 | 66% 111803-58146 (169949) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $40.53 | $17.85 | +$5.99 | 65% 22283-12231 (34514) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $7.1 | $10 | +$2.9 | 40% 410-627 (1037) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $6.82 | $11 | +$4.18 | 46% 37996-44793 (82789) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3628-2817 (6445) |
Invested
$670.54
Value
$686.09
PnL
+$15.55
Record
54%
15347-12855 (28202)
Both legs:
Invested
$305.13
Value
$306.8
PnL
+$1.67
Record
56%
14197-11140 (25337)
Both legs:
AtomforgeCTRInvested
$295.2
Value
—
PnL
-$295.2
Record
65%
3956-2135 (6091)
Invested
$245.52
Value
$313.58
PnL
+$68.06
Record
56%
13606-10852 (24458)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$176.09
Value
$175
PnL
-$1.09
Record
55%
8485-6933 (15418)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.37
Value
$270.05
PnL
+$82.68
Record
57%
11862-8849 (20711)
Invested
$133.56
Value
$145.52
PnL
+$11.96
Record
49%
5071-5242 (10313)
Both legs:
Invested
$128.4
Value
$142.5
PnL
+$14.1
Record
53%
27000-24047 (51047)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$100.36
Value
$90
PnL
-$10.36
Record
56%
12327-9516 (21843)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.63
Value
$125
PnL
+$32.37
Record
67%
53174-26585 (79759)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$161.94
Value
$169
PnL
+$7.06
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$51.4
Value
—
PnL
-$51.4
Record
55%
17594-14210 (31804)
Invested
$59.69
Value
$92.65
PnL
+$32.96
Record
60%
12052-7944 (19996)
Invested
$41.63
Value
$70.05
PnL
+$28.42
Record
59%
6614-4574 (11188)
Invested
$39.94
Value
$56.3
PnL
+$16.36
Record
55%
23740-19185 (42925)
Invested
$33.98
Value
$45.38
PnL
+$11.4
Record
66%
125021-64333 (189354)
Invested
$20.15
Value
$39.51
PnL
+$19.36
Record
55%
7269-5950 (13219)
Invested
$17.38
Value
—
PnL
-$17.38
Record
57%
7686-5888 (13574)
Invested
$20.18
Value
$21.42
PnL
+$1.24
Record
66%
111803-58146 (169949)
Invested
$40.53
Value
$17.85
PnL
+$5.99
Record
65%
22283-12231 (34514)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.9
Record
40%
410-627 (1037)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$6.82
Value
$11
PnL
+$4.18
Record
46%
37996-44793 (82789)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3628-2817 (6445)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Atomforge
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Down — $270.05
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
std0
ARBArbitrage — excluded