Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 47%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$540.22

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,299

Combined PnL-$955.46

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,009

Combined PnL+$415.24

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Up	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$60.25	56% 3628-2817 (6445)
└ Up leg	Up	—	—	$-1.9K
└ Down leg	Down	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$1.8K
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 46¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$354.08	54% 15347-12855 (28202)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$987.7	$2.1K	+$1.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.5¢	$804.64	—	-$804.64
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$945.71	$873.49	-$72.21	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.2¢	$664.73	—	-$664.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$280.97	$873.49	+$592.52
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$817.37	$1.2K	+$376.82	56% 13606-10852 (24458)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$590.4	$1.2K	+$603.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$226.97	—	-$226.97
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$662.04	$717.96	+$55.91	56% 12327-9516 (21843)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.2¢	$425.24	$717.96	+$292.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 48¢	$236.81	—	-$236.81
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$597.44	$544.75	-$52.68	49% 5071-5242 (10313)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.5¢	$373.27	$544.75	+$171.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$224.16	—	-$224.16
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$470.56	$220.1	-$250.46	77% 9320-2762 (12082)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$279.07	—	-$279.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 87¢	$191.49	$220.1	+$28.61
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$250.66	$152.9	-$97.76	57% 11862-8849 (20711)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$180.46	—	-$180.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$70.19	$152.9	+$82.71
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$212.09	$282.92	+$70.84	55% 7269-5950 (13219)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$140.71	$282.92	+$142.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.1¢	$71.38	—	-$71.38
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 90¢	$225.34	—	-$225.34	56% 57728-44595 (102323)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 53.1¢	$170.67	$195.43	+$24.75	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.1¢	$103.4	—	-$103.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.4¢	$67.28	$195.43	+$128.15
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 77.1¢	$224.45	$155.09	-$69.35	53% 27000-24047 (51047)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.1¢	$146.7	—	-$146.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$77.74	$155.09	+$77.35
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 71.7¢	$203.25	—	-$203.25	48% 23152-25343 (48495)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$179.36	$118.06	-$60.65	60% 12052-7944 (19996)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$77.82	—	-$77.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.5¢	$97.41	$118.06	+$17.17
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 58¢	$158.6	—	-$158.6	65% 3956-2135 (6091)
LI Little-big	Downavg 36.9¢	$92.26	$249.89	+$157.63	34% 18628-35622 (54250)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 58.4¢	$101.79	—	-$101.79	59% 6614-4574 (11188)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 88¢	$153.76	$174.73	+$20.97	63% 51496-30306 (81802)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 90¢	$90.04	—	-$90.04	64% 39836-22759 (62595)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 83.4¢	$79.85	—	-$79.85	55% 17594-14210 (31804)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 44.7¢	$65.64	$146.92	+$81.27	58% 50863-37010 (87873)
machinelearned	Downavg 29.7¢	$41.69	$135.29	+$93.6	55% 8485-6933 (15418)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 88¢	$105.6	$120	+$14.4	57% 10233-7665 (17898)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 87.1¢	$83.13	$53.08	-$30.05	66% 125021-64333 (189354)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.1¢	$46.24	$53.08	+$6.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 77¢	$36.89	—	-$36.89
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 25.4¢	$28.76	$59.92	+$31.16	55% 23740-19185 (42925)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$3,564.47

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$60.25

Record

56%

3628-2817 (6445)

Both legs:

Up——$-1.9K

Down$3,564.47—+$1.8K

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,792.34

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$354.08

Record

54%

15347-12855 (28202)

Both legs:

Down$987.746¢+$1.2K

Up$804.6444.5¢-$804.64

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$945.71

Value

$873.49

PnL

-$72.21

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

Both legs:

Up$664.7363.2¢-$664.73

Down$280.9732.2¢+$592.52

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$817.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$376.82

Record

56%

13606-10852 (24458)

Both legs:

Down$590.449.4¢+$603.79

Up$226.9741.8¢-$226.97

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$662.04

Value

$717.96

PnL

+$55.91

Record

56%

12327-9516 (21843)

Both legs:

Down$425.2459.2¢+$292.72

Up$236.8148¢-$236.81

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$597.44

Value

$544.75

PnL

-$52.68

Record

49%

5071-5242 (10313)

Both legs:

Down$373.2768.5¢+$171.48

Up$224.1645.6¢-$224.16

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$470.56

Value

$220.1

PnL

-$250.46

Record

77%

9320-2762 (12082)

Both legs:

Up$279.0740.7¢-$279.07

Down$191.4987¢+$28.61

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$250.66

Value

$152.9

PnL

-$97.76

Record

57%

11862-8849 (20711)

Both legs:

Up$180.4649.4¢-$180.46

Down$70.1945.9¢+$82.71

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$212.09

Value

$282.92

PnL

+$70.84

Record

55%

7269-5950 (13219)

Both legs:

Down$140.7149.7¢+$142.22

Up$71.3844.1¢-$71.38

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$225.34

Value

—

PnL

-$225.34

Record

56%

57728-44595 (102323)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$170.67

Value

$195.43

PnL

+$24.75

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

Both legs:

Up$103.453.1¢-$103.4

Down$67.2834.4¢+$128.15

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$224.45

Value

$155.09

PnL

-$69.35

Record

53%

27000-24047 (51047)

Both legs:

Up$146.777.1¢-$146.7

Down$77.7450.1¢+$77.35

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$203.25

Value

—

PnL

-$203.25

Record

48%

23152-25343 (48495)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$179.36

Value

$118.06

PnL

-$60.65

Record

60%

12052-7944 (19996)

Both legs:

Up$77.8252.6¢-$77.82

Down$97.4182.5¢+$17.17

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$158.6

Value

—

PnL

-$158.6

Record

65%

3956-2135 (6091)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$92.26

Value

$249.89

PnL

+$157.63

Record

34%

18628-35622 (54250)

13897651CTR

Invested

$101.79

Value

—

PnL

-$101.79

Record

59%

6614-4574 (11188)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$153.76

Value

$174.73

PnL

+$20.97

Record

63%

51496-30306 (81802)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$90.04

Value

—

PnL

-$90.04

Record

64%

39836-22759 (62595)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$79.85

Value

—

PnL

-$79.85

Record

55%

17594-14210 (31804)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$65.64

Value

$146.92

PnL

+$81.27

Record

58%

50863-37010 (87873)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$41.69

Value

$135.29

PnL

+$93.6

Record

55%

8485-6933 (15418)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$105.6

Value

$120

PnL

+$14.4

Record

57%

10233-7665 (17898)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$83.13

Value

$53.08

PnL

-$30.05

Record

66%

125021-64333 (189354)

Both legs:

Down$46.2487.1¢+$6.84

Up$36.8977¢-$36.89

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$28.76

Value

$59.92

PnL

+$31.16

Record

55%

23740-19185 (42925)

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x50b6e7f0...000dbf

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793262900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$60.25

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$70.84

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Up — $0

-$225.34

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