Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 81%
2 arb excluded
$12.3K
$17.17
Smart Money Signal
23 of 29 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $7.7K | $7.7K | +$7.75 | 59% 62084-43185 (105269) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $936.54 | $946 | +$9.46 | 93% 22893-1747 (24640) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 98.6¢ | $694.49 | $704.26 | +$9.77 | 55% 44407-36899 (81306) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 86.4¢ | $517.41 | $590.91 | +$73.49 | 56% 14197-11140 (25337) |
SE seeeeeeb | Upavg 98¢ | $396.9 | $405 | +$8.1 | 51% 703-676 (1379) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 46¢ | $317.19 | — | -$317.19 | 58% 50863-37010 (87873) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 90.3¢ | $308.47 | $330.57 | +$22.1 | 55% 8485-6933 (15418) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 90¢ | $225.34 | $250.38 | +$25.04 | 56% 57728-44595 (102323) |
13 13897651 | Upavg 53¢ | $152.03 | $264.66 | +$112.63 | 59% 6614-4574 (11188) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 91.9¢ | $132.65 | $142.63 | +$9.98 | 53% 27000-24047 (51047) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $141.99 | $100 | -$41.99 | 51% 16997-16551 (33548) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 97¢ | $97 | $100 | +$3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.5¢ | $44.99 | — | -$44.99 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 17.9¢ | $40.04 | — | -$40.04 | 57% 11862-8849 (20711) |
ST std0 | Upavg 95.4¢ | $104.88 | $105.83 | +$0.95 | 67% 53174-26585 (79759) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 96.2¢ | $107.42 | $91.37 | -$16.05 | 49% 5071-5242 (10313) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 84.2¢ | $77.26 | $87.09 | +$9.83 | 60% 12052-7944 (19996) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 84.5¢ | $78 | $60 | -$18 | 54% 15347-12855 (28202) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 84.5¢ | $50.7 | $60 | +$9.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 15.2¢ | $27.3 | — | -$27.3 | |
 ohioism | Upavg 87¢ | $113.86 | $130.87 | +$17.01 | 64% 39836-22759 (62595) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $64.26 | $69.4 | +$5.14 | 49% 77765-81236 (159001) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $54 | $60 | +$6 | 57% 10233-7665 (17898) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $19.82 | $14.82 | -$5 | 55% 49400-39611 (89011) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $42.68 | $44 | +$1.32 | 55% 7269-5950 (13219) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $31.04 | $30 | -$1.04 | 56% 13606-10852 (24458) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $11.21 | $25 | +$13.79 | 40% 410-627 (1037) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR | Downavg 4.6¢ | $514.11 | — | +$72.91 | 48% 23152-25343 (48495) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $22.77 | $26.49 | +$3.72 | 52% 89734-84193 (173927) |
Invested
$7,740.26
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$7.75
Record
59%
62084-43185 (105269)
Invested
$936.54
Value
$946
PnL
+$9.46
Record
93%
22893-1747 (24640)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$694.49
Value
$704.26
PnL
+$9.77
Record
55%
44407-36899 (81306)
Invested
$517.41
Value
$590.91
PnL
+$73.49
Record
56%
14197-11140 (25337)
Invested
$396.9
Value
$405
PnL
+$8.1
Record
51%
703-676 (1379)
Invested
$317.19
Value
—
PnL
-$317.19
Record
58%
50863-37010 (87873)
machinelearnedInvested
$308.47
Value
$330.57
PnL
+$22.1
Record
55%
8485-6933 (15418)
Invested
$225.34
Value
$250.38
PnL
+$25.04
Record
56%
57728-44595 (102323)
Invested
$152.03
Value
$264.66
PnL
+$112.63
Record
59%
6614-4574 (11188)
Invested
$132.65
Value
$142.63
PnL
+$9.98
Record
53%
27000-24047 (51047)
Invested
$141.99
Value
$100
PnL
-$41.99
Record
51%
16997-16551 (33548)
Both legs:
Invested
$40.04
Value
—
PnL
-$40.04
Record
57%
11862-8849 (20711)
Invested
$104.88
Value
$105.83
PnL
+$0.95
Record
67%
53174-26585 (79759)
Invested
$107.42
Value
$91.37
PnL
-$16.05
Record
49%
5071-5242 (10313)
Invested
$77.26
Value
$87.09
PnL
+$9.83
Record
60%
12052-7944 (19996)
Invested
$78
Value
$60
PnL
-$18
Record
54%
15347-12855 (28202)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$113.86
Value
$130.87
PnL
+$17.01
Record
64%
39836-22759 (62595)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$64.26
Value
$69.4
PnL
+$5.14
Record
49%
77765-81236 (159001)
Invested
$54
Value
$60
PnL
+$6
Record
57%
10233-7665 (17898)
Invested
$19.82
Value
$14.82
PnL
-$5
Record
55%
49400-39611 (89011)
Invested
$42.68
Value
$44
PnL
+$1.32
Record
55%
7269-5950 (13219)
Invested
$31.04
Value
$30
PnL
-$1.04
Record
56%
13606-10852 (24458)
Invested
$11.21
Value
$25
PnL
+$13.79
Record
40%
410-627 (1037)
Invested
$514.11
Value
—
PnL
+$72.91
Record
48%
23152-25343 (48495)
Invested
$22.77
Value
$26.49
PnL
+$3.72
Record
52%
89734-84193 (173927)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $7.7K
hoodquant
Up — $946
MayorMamdani
Up — $704.26
CrouchPredictions
Up — $590.91
seeeeeeb
Up — $405
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $330.57
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $250.38
13897651
Up — $264.66
spartacray
Up — $142.63