Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 92%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$187.82

Smart Money Signal

25 of 29 top traders (86%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,207

Combined PnL-$507.65

Up25 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,478

Combined PnL+$695.47

Down — 14%Up — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$815.93	$901.48	+$85.54	54% 15347-12855 (28202)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.2¢	$606.13	$901.48	+$295.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.7¢	$209.81	—	-$209.81
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 71.8¢	$610.43	$613.35	+$2.92	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.8¢	$440.62	$613.35	+$172.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.3¢	$169.82	—	-$169.82
TE TelawinCTR	Downavg 46.9¢	$500	—	-$500	51% 339-329 (668)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 63¢	$373.64	$453.42	+$79.78	56% 13606-10852 (24458)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$324.99	$355.06	+$30.06	55% 8485-6933 (15418)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$219.29	$355.06	+$135.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$105.7	—	-$105.7
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 50¢	$147.79	$290	+$142.21	57% 10233-7665 (17898)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$219.04	$251.38	+$32.34	59% 6614-4574 (11188)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$125.69	$251.38	+$125.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$93.35	—	-$93.35
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 99¢	$199.98	$202	+$2.02	51% 703-676 (1379)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$160.49	$168.53	+$8.04	57% 11862-8849 (20711)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$108.84	$168.53	+$59.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$51.65	—	-$51.65
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 50¢	$150	$300	+$150	48% 23152-25343 (48495)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 80.5¢	$157.87	$142.32	-$15.55	49% 5071-5242 (10313)
LI Little-big	Upavg 50¢	$125	$250	+$125	34% 18628-35622 (54250)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$100.53	$85.36	-$15.17	53% 27000-24047 (51047)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$53.87	$85.36	+$31.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.8¢	$46.66	—	-$46.66
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 83.9¢	$107.53	$76.51	-$31.02	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.9¢	$64.21	$76.51	+$12.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$43.31	—	-$43.31
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 62.2¢	$78.01	$125.5	+$47.49	66% 111803-58146 (169949)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 61¢	$93.1	$152.62	+$59.52	56% 57728-44595 (102323)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$65.01	$68.95	+$3.93	52% 89734-84193 (173927)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 90.4¢	$74.55	$58	-$16.56	60% 12052-7944 (19996)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 30.6¢	$58.75	$36.99	-$21.76	56% 12327-9516 (21843)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.9¢	$28.81	$36.99	+$8.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.6¢	$29.94	—	-$29.94
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98.2¢	$47.13	$48	+$0.87	93% 22893-1747 (24640)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 86.9¢	$51.7	$59.48	+$7.78	66% 125021-64333 (189354)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$27.72	$37.63	+$9.91	55% 7269-5950 (13219)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 69¢	$40.7	$58.95	+$18.25	55% 17594-14210 (31804)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 61¢	$45.79	$75.07	+$29.28	58% 60259-43977 (104236)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 5.5¢	$7.65	—	-$7.65	55% 49400-39611 (89011)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$815.93

Value

$901.48

PnL

+$85.54

Record

54%

15347-12855 (28202)

Both legs:

Up$606.1367.2¢+$295.35

Down$209.8130.7¢-$209.81

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$610.43

Value

$613.35

PnL

+$2.92

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

Both legs:

Up$440.6271.8¢+$172.74

Down$169.8217.3¢-$169.82

TelawinCTR

Down

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

51%

339-329 (668)

GoodFallen

Invested

$373.64

Value

$453.42

PnL

+$79.78

Record

56%

13606-10852 (24458)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$324.99

Value

$355.06

PnL

+$30.06

Record

55%

8485-6933 (15418)

Both legs:

Up$219.2961.8¢+$135.77

Down$105.729.6¢-$105.7

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$147.79

Value

$290

PnL

+$142.21

Record

57%

10233-7665 (17898)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$219.04

Value

$251.38

PnL

+$32.34

Record

59%

6614-4574 (11188)

Both legs:

Up$125.6950¢+$125.69

Down$93.3550.2¢-$93.35

seeeeeeb

Invested

$199.98

Value

$202

PnL

+$2.02

Record

51%

703-676 (1379)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$160.49

Value

$168.53

PnL

+$8.04

Record

57%

11862-8849 (20711)

Both legs:

Up$108.8464.6¢+$59.69

Down$51.6528¢-$51.65

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$150

Value

$300

PnL

+$150

Record

48%

23152-25343 (48495)

ply-pm0

Invested

$157.87

Value

$142.32

PnL

-$15.55

Record

49%

5071-5242 (10313)

Little-big

Invested

$125

Value

$250

PnL

+$125

Record

34%

18628-35622 (54250)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$100.53

Value

$85.36

PnL

-$15.17

Record

53%

27000-24047 (51047)

Both legs:

Up$53.8763.1¢+$31.49

Down$46.6637.8¢-$46.66

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$107.53

Value

$76.51

PnL

-$31.02

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

Both legs:

Up$64.2183.9¢+$12.3

Down$43.3136.1¢-$43.31

antsaslyku

Invested

$78.01

Value

$125.5

PnL

+$47.49

Record

66%

111803-58146 (169949)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$93.1

Value

$152.62

PnL

+$59.52

Record

56%

57728-44595 (102323)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$65.01

Value

$68.95

PnL

+$3.93

Record

52%

89734-84193 (173927)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$74.55

Value

$58

PnL

-$16.56

Record

60%

12052-7944 (19996)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$58.75

Value

$36.99

PnL

-$21.76

Record

56%

12327-9516 (21843)

Both legs:

Up$28.8177.9¢+$8.18

Down$29.9430.6¢-$29.94

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$47.13

Value

$48

PnL

+$0.87

Record

93%

22893-1747 (24640)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$51.7

Value

$59.48

PnL

+$7.78

Record

66%

125021-64333 (189354)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$27.72

Value

$37.63

PnL

+$9.91

Record

55%

7269-5950 (13219)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$40.7

Value

$58.95

PnL

+$18.25

Record

55%

17594-14210 (31804)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$45.79

Value

$75.07

PnL

+$29.28

Record

58%

60259-43977 (104236)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.65

Value

—

PnL

-$7.65

Record

55%

49400-39611 (89011)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 29 top traders (86%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x13656bbc...265e2f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793261100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Telawin

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Up — $453.42

+$79.78

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$30.06

trdyugiolkw

Up — $290

+$142.21

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$32.34

seeeeeeb

Up — $202

+$2.02

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.04

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

+$150

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