Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$315.25

Smart Money Signal

17 of 25 top traders (68%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,359

Combined PnL+$453.44

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares608

Combined PnL-$138.19

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 72.7¢	$999.59	$1.1K	+$131.32	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$473.16	$458.68	-$14.48	54% 15347-12855 (28202)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$289.58	$458.68	+$169.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.3¢	$183.58	—	-$183.58
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 81.4¢	$491.38	$602.04	+$110.66	48% 23152-25343 (48495)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 57.2¢	$392.65	$466.37	+$73.72	66% 111803-58146 (169949)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.2¢	$266.81	$466.37	+$199.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$125.83	—	-$125.83
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 64.8¢	$289.25	$318.79	+$29.53	49% 5071-5242 (10313)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 72.2¢	$218.14	$215.67	-$2.46	55% 7269-5950 (13219)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 70¢	$194.86	$244.75	+$49.89	53% 27000-24047 (51047)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$171.33	$244.75	+$73.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.6¢	$23.53	—	-$23.53
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$149.99	$140.64	-$9.35	62% 28326-17682 (46008)
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.3¢	$59.88	—	-$59.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$90.11	$140.64	+$50.53
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 92.4¢	$210.86	$168.01	-$42.85	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.4¢	$155.22	$168.01	+$12.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.4¢	$55.64	—	-$55.64
machinelearned	Upavg 85.9¢	$132.69	$147	+$14.31	55% 8485-6933 (15418)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$115.51	$108.32	-$7.2	56% 13606-10852 (24458)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.8¢	$57.22	$108.32	+$51.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$58.29	—	-$58.29
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 75.9¢	$127.68	$125.83	-$1.85	60% 12052-7944 (19996)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.9¢	$95.48	$125.83	+$30.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.7¢	$32.2	—	-$32.2
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 77.3¢	$102.5	$116.2	+$13.7	55% 23740-19185 (42925)
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 79.6¢	$148.51	$186.67	+$38.16	57% 10233-7665 (17898)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 38.8¢	$114.09	$33	-$81.09	57% 11862-8849 (20711)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.8¢	$93.3	—	-$93.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$20.79	$33	+$12.21
ohioism	Upavg 66.5¢	$133.08	$200.12	+$67.04	64% 39836-22759 (62595)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 94¢	$94	$100	+$6	51% 16997-16551 (33548)
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 90.9¢	$117.15	$93.73	-$23.42	52% 89734-84193 (173927)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 66.3¢	$86.4	$130.31	+$43.91	58% 60259-43977 (104236)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 86.3¢	$41.89	$45.88	+$4.36	61% 94291-59323 (153614)
└ Down leg	Downavg 2¢	$1.44	—	-$1.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.3¢	$39.59	$45.88	+$5.8
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$36.2	—	-$36.2	55% 17594-14210 (31804)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 78¢	$46.49	$44.01	-$2.48	66% 125021-64333 (189354)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$39.11	—	-$39.11	59% 6614-4574 (11188)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$34.44	—	-$34.44	34% 18628-35622 (54250)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 68¢	$34.59	$50.87	+$16.28	56% 57728-44595 (102323)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$999.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$131.32

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$473.16

Value

$458.68

PnL

-$14.48

Record

54%

15347-12855 (28202)

Both legs:

Up$289.5863.1¢+$169.1

Down$183.5841.3¢-$183.58

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$491.38

Value

$602.04

PnL

+$110.66

Record

48%

23152-25343 (48495)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$392.65

Value

$466.37

PnL

+$73.72

Record

66%

111803-58146 (169949)

Both legs:

Up$266.8157.2¢+$199.56

Down$125.8349.9¢-$125.83

ply-pm0

Invested

$289.25

Value

$318.79

PnL

+$29.53

Record

49%

5071-5242 (10313)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$218.14

Value

$215.67

PnL

-$2.46

Record

55%

7269-5950 (13219)

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$194.86

Value

$244.75

PnL

+$49.89

Record

53%

27000-24047 (51047)

Both legs:

Up$171.3370¢+$73.42

Down$23.5319.6¢-$23.53

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$149.99

Value

$140.64

PnL

-$9.35

Record

62%

28326-17682 (46008)

Both legs:

Down$59.8824.3¢-$59.88

Up$90.1164.1¢+$50.53

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$210.86

Value

$168.01

PnL

-$42.85

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

Both legs:

Up$155.2292.4¢+$12.79

Down$55.6427.4¢-$55.64

machinelearned

Invested

$132.69

Value

$147

PnL

+$14.31

Record

55%

8485-6933 (15418)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$115.51

Value

$108.32

PnL

-$7.2

Record

56%

13606-10852 (24458)

Both legs:

Up$57.2252.8¢+$51.1

Down$58.2943.1¢-$58.29

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$127.68

Value

$125.83

PnL

-$1.85

Record

60%

12052-7944 (19996)

Both legs:

Up$95.4875.9¢+$30.35

Down$32.230.7¢-$32.2

sir-upalot

Invested

$102.5

Value

$116.2

PnL

+$13.7

Record

55%

23740-19185 (42925)

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$148.51

Value

$186.67

PnL

+$38.16

Record

57%

10233-7665 (17898)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.09

Value

$33

PnL

-$81.09

Record

57%

11862-8849 (20711)

Both legs:

Down$93.338.8¢-$93.3

Up$20.7963¢+$12.21

ohioism

Invested

$133.08

Value

$200.12

PnL

+$67.04

Record

64%

39836-22759 (62595)

gansinimen

Invested

$94

Value

$100

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

16997-16551 (33548)

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$117.15

Value

$93.73

PnL

-$23.42

Record

52%

89734-84193 (173927)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$86.4

Value

$130.31

PnL

+$43.91

Record

58%

60259-43977 (104236)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$41.89

Value

$45.88

PnL

+$4.36

Record

61%

94291-59323 (153614)

Both legs:

Down$1.442¢-$1.44

Up$39.5986.3¢+$5.8

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.2

Value

—

PnL

-$36.2

Record

55%

17594-14210 (31804)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$46.49

Value

$44.01

PnL

-$2.48

Record

66%

125021-64333 (189354)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.11

Value

—

PnL

-$39.11

Record

59%

6614-4574 (11188)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.44

Value

—

PnL

-$34.44

Record

34%

18628-35622 (54250)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$34.59

Value

$50.87

PnL

+$16.28

Record

56%

57728-44595 (102323)

Smart Money Signal

17 of 25 top traders (68%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa250a847...be86b5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793260800

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.1K

+$131.32

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$14.48

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $602.04

+$110.66

antsaslyku

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$73.72

ply-pm0

Up — $318.79

+$29.53

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $215.67

-$2.46

spartacray

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$49.89

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Up — $147

+$14.31

Trade on Polymarket