Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 95% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 97%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Signal

38 of 40 top traders (95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up38 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares8,476

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares406

Combined PnL-$54.4

Up — 95%Down — 5%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 82¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$131.27	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 73¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$30.22	54% 15347-12855 (28202)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 74.9¢	$458.17	$461.5	+$3.34	49% 5071-5242 (10313)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 72.8¢	$292.34	$390.1	+$97.76	56% 12327-9516 (21843)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 72.5¢	$360.77	$347.92	-$12.85	56% 13606-10852 (24458)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$305.26	$308.34	+$3.08	56% 29279-23029 (52308)
BO bosona	Upavg 71¢	$206.8	$250	+$43.2	55% 49400-39611 (89011)
machinelearned	Upavg 79.7¢	$219.24	$274.99	+$55.75	55% 8485-6933 (15418)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Upavg 70¢	$249.66	$356.66	+$107	63% 1758-1023 (2781)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 74.5¢	$209.44	$251.69	+$42.25	60% 12052-7944 (19996)
SE seeeeeeb	Upavg 60¢	$243	$405	+$162	51% 703-676 (1379)
ST std0	Upavg 79.6¢	$179.07	$196.43	+$17.36	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
pspspsps5	Upavg 84¢	$149.58	$177.99	+$28.41	46% 37996-44793 (82789)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 60.1¢	$147.42	$245.41	+$97.99	55% 23740-19185 (42925)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 49¢	$147	$300	+$153	48% 23152-25343 (48495)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$124.49	$119.05	-$5.43	57% 11862-8849 (20711)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.4¢	$82.65	$119.05	+$36.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.2¢	$41.84	—	-$41.84
ohioism	Upavg 80¢	$123.15	$153.94	+$30.79	64% 39836-22759 (62595)
LI Little-big	Upavg 58.7¢	$138.38	$235.8	+$97.43	34% 18628-35622 (54250)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 74.8¢	$83.78	$112	+$28.22	49% 77765-81236 (159001)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 86.4¢	$73.57	$85.13	+$11.56	57% 7686-5888 (13574)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Upavg 80¢	$85.6	$107	+$21.4	51% 870-846 (1716)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 70¢	$71.1	$101.57	+$30.47	56% 57728-44595 (102323)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 75¢	$63.55	$84.69	+$21.14	55% 17594-14210 (31804)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$59.08	$87.89	+$28.81	53% 27000-24047 (51047)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 82¢	$38.32	$44.48	+$6.15	52% 89734-84193 (173927)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,726.3

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$131.27

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,095.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.22

Record

54%

15347-12855 (28202)

ply-pm0

Invested

$458.17

Value

$461.5

PnL

+$3.34

Record

49%

5071-5242 (10313)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$292.34

Value

$390.1

PnL

+$97.76

Record

56%

12327-9516 (21843)

GoodFallen

Invested

$360.77

Value

$347.92

PnL

-$12.85

Record

56%

13606-10852 (24458)

THG.

Invested

$305.26

Value

$308.34

PnL

+$3.08

Record

56%

29279-23029 (52308)

bosona

Invested

$206.8

Value

$250

PnL

+$43.2

Record

55%

49400-39611 (89011)

machinelearned

Invested

$219.24

Value

$274.99

PnL

+$55.75

Record

55%

8485-6933 (15418)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Invested

$249.66

Value

$356.66

PnL

+$107

Record

63%

1758-1023 (2781)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$209.44

Value

$251.69

PnL

+$42.25

Record

60%

12052-7944 (19996)

seeeeeeb

Invested

$243

Value

$405

PnL

+$162

Record

51%

703-676 (1379)

std0

Invested

$179.07

Value

$196.43

PnL

+$17.36

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

pspspsps5

Invested

$149.58

Value

$177.99

PnL

+$28.41

Record

46%

37996-44793 (82789)

sir-upalot

Invested

$147.42

Value

$245.41

PnL

+$97.99

Record

55%

23740-19185 (42925)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$147

Value

$300

PnL

+$153

Record

48%

23152-25343 (48495)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$124.49

Value

$119.05

PnL

-$5.43

Record

57%

11862-8849 (20711)

Both legs:

Up$82.6569.4¢+$36.41

Down$41.8414.2¢-$41.84

ohioism

Invested

$123.15

Value

$153.94

PnL

+$30.79

Record

64%

39836-22759 (62595)

Little-big

Invested

$138.38

Value

$235.8

PnL

+$97.43

Record

34%

18628-35622 (54250)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$83.78

Value

$112

PnL

+$28.22

Record

49%

77765-81236 (159001)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$73.57

Value

$85.13

PnL

+$11.56

Record

57%

7686-5888 (13574)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Invested

$85.6

Value

$107

PnL

+$21.4

Record

51%

870-846 (1716)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$71.1

Value

$101.57

PnL

+$30.47

Record

56%

57728-44595 (102323)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$63.55

Value

$84.69

PnL

+$21.14

Record

55%

17594-14210 (31804)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$59.08

Value

$87.89

PnL

+$28.81

Record

53%

27000-24047 (51047)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$38.32

Value

$44.48

PnL

+$6.15

Record

52%

89734-84193 (173927)

Smart Money Signal

38 of 40 top traders (95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x115ffce1...83e39f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793260500

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.9K

+$131.27

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.1K

+$30.22

ply-pm0

Up — $461.5

+$3.34

FairValueMachine

Up — $390.1

+$97.76

GoodFallen

Up — $347.92

-$12.85

THG.

Up — $308.34

+$3.08

bosona

Up — $250

+$43.2

machinelearned

Up — $274.99

+$55.75

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Up — $356.66

+$107

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $251.69

+$42.25

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