Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 92% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 100%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$555.13

Smart Money Signal

23 of 25 top traders (92%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,642

Combined PnL+$555.13

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Up — 92%Down — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 88.6¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$67.35	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.6¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$189.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 5.8¢	$121.72	—	-$121.72
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.7	74% 102283-36351 (138634)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 79.3¢	$627.51	$643.78	+$16.28	54% 15347-12855 (28202)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.3¢	$510.82	$643.78	+$132.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.8¢	$116.69	—	-$116.69
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 85.7¢	$503.14	$526.57	+$23.43	49% 5071-5242 (10313)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.7¢	$451.46	$526.57	+$75.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 8¢	$51.69	—	-$51.69
13 13897651	Upavg 57.1¢	$342.65	$557.68	+$215.03	59% 6614-4574 (11188)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 90.3¢	$458.03	$507.29	+$49.26	57% 7686-5888 (13574)
pspspsps5	Upavg 88.4¢	$422.51	$477.85	+$55.33	46% 37996-44793 (82789)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 82.3¢	$276.92	$333.14	+$56.21	57% 11862-8849 (20711)
machinelearned	Upavg 86.1¢	$288.12	$334.56	+$46.44	55% 8485-6933 (15418)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 92¢	$276	$300	+$24	48% 23152-25343 (48495)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 82.9¢	$189.83	$218.25	+$28.42	56% 13606-10852 (24458)
BO bosona	Upavg 94¢	$198.75	$177.67	-$21.08	55% 49400-39611 (89011)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 89.4¢	$116.56	$127	+$10.44	49% 77765-81236 (159001)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.4¢	$113.53	$127	+$13.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$3.03	—	-$3.03
ST std0	Upavg 94.4¢	$151.91	$149.99	-$1.92	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 88.7¢	$159.31	$179.6	+$20.29	55% 44407-36899 (81306)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 84.3¢	$132.16	$155.92	+$23.76	55% 7269-5950 (13219)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 82.3¢	$120.55	$142.22	+$21.67	62% 28326-17682 (46008)
SP spartacray	Upavg 80.6¢	$108.16	$124.99	+$16.83	53% 27000-24047 (51047)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$64.35	$65	+$0.65	93% 22893-1747 (24640)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 88.9¢	$62.55	$59	-$2	60% 12052-7944 (19996)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 94¢	$56.4	$60	+$3.6	51% 19890-19043 (38933)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 87¢	$39.3	$30	-$9.3	56% 12327-9516 (21843)
└ Up leg	Upavg 87¢	$26.1	$30	+$3.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 11¢	$13.2	—	-$13.2
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 89.3¢	$33.14	$25.68	-$7.46	55% 23740-19185 (42925)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 86.3¢	$34.86	$40.4	+$5.54	66% 125021-64333 (189354)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 91.4¢	$27.83	$30.44	+$2.61	61% 94291-59323 (153614)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,590.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$67.35

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

Both legs:

Up$1,468.4488.6¢+$189.06

Down$121.725.8¢-$121.72

BoneOhio

Invested

$1,653.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.7

Record

74%

102283-36351 (138634)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$627.51

Value

$643.78

PnL

+$16.28

Record

54%

15347-12855 (28202)

Both legs:

Up$510.8279.3¢+$132.97

Down$116.6915.8¢-$116.69

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$503.14

Value

$526.57

PnL

+$23.43

Record

49%

5071-5242 (10313)

Both legs:

Up$451.4685.7¢+$75.11

Down$51.698¢-$51.69

13897651

Invested

$342.65

Value

$557.68

PnL

+$215.03

Record

59%

6614-4574 (11188)

wzbbb

Invested

$458.03

Value

$507.29

PnL

+$49.26

Record

57%

7686-5888 (13574)

pspspsps5

Invested

$422.51

Value

$477.85

PnL

+$55.33

Record

46%

37996-44793 (82789)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$276.92

Value

$333.14

PnL

+$56.21

Record

57%

11862-8849 (20711)

machinelearned

Invested

$288.12

Value

$334.56

PnL

+$46.44

Record

55%

8485-6933 (15418)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$276

Value

$300

PnL

+$24

Record

48%

23152-25343 (48495)

GoodFallen

Invested

$189.83

Value

$218.25

PnL

+$28.42

Record

56%

13606-10852 (24458)

bosona

Invested

$198.75

Value

$177.67

PnL

-$21.08

Record

55%

49400-39611 (89011)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$116.56

Value

$127

PnL

+$10.44

Record

49%

77765-81236 (159001)

Both legs:

Up$113.5389.4¢+$13.47

Down$3.031¢-$3.03

std0

Invested

$151.91

Value

$149.99

PnL

-$1.92

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$159.31

Value

$179.6

PnL

+$20.29

Record

55%

44407-36899 (81306)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$132.16

Value

$155.92

PnL

+$23.76

Record

55%

7269-5950 (13219)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$120.55

Value

$142.22

PnL

+$21.67

Record

62%

28326-17682 (46008)

spartacray

Invested

$108.16

Value

$124.99

PnL

+$16.83

Record

53%

27000-24047 (51047)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$64.35

Value

$65

PnL

+$0.65

Record

93%

22893-1747 (24640)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$62.55

Value

$59

PnL

-$2

Record

60%

12052-7944 (19996)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$56.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$3.6

Record

51%

19890-19043 (38933)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$39.3

Value

$30

PnL

-$9.3

Record

56%

12327-9516 (21843)

Both legs:

Up$26.187¢+$3.9

Down$13.211¢-$13.2

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$33.14

Value

$25.68

PnL

-$7.46

Record

55%

23740-19185 (42925)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$34.86

Value

$40.4

PnL

+$5.54

Record

66%

125021-64333 (189354)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$27.83

Value

$30.44

PnL

+$2.61

Record

61%

94291-59323 (153614)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 25 top traders (92%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x17c9c3e5...e65f6a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793260200

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$67.35

BoneOhio

Up — $1.7K

+$16.7

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Up — $557.68

+$215.03

wzbbb

Up — $507.29

+$49.26

pspspsps5

Up — $477.85

+$55.33

EZTRADENL2

Up — $333.14

+$56.21

machinelearned

Up — $334.56

+$46.44

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

+$24

Trade on Polymarket