Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$139.12

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares989

Combined PnL-$348.56

Down14 traders

Total Value$942.97

Total Shares943

Combined PnL+$209.44

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 82¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$66.92	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82¢	$952.96	$1.2K	+$209.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.7¢	$142.4	—	-$142.4
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$404.91	$368.97	-$35.94	54% 15347-12855 (28202)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.4¢	$263.59	$368.97	+$105.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$141.32	—	-$141.32
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 47.2¢	$288.63	—	-$288.63	58% 37531-26786 (64317)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 73.8¢	$206.3	$189.1	-$17.21	56% 13606-10852 (24458)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.8¢	$139.57	$189.1	+$49.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.4¢	$66.73	—	-$66.73
machinelearned	Downavg 65.6¢	$164	$249.99	+$86	55% 8485-6933 (15418)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$155.57	$158.21	+$2.64	60% 12052-7944 (19996)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.5¢	$132.06	$158.21	+$26.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.9¢	$23.51	—	-$23.51
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$129.2	$131.99	+$2.79	57% 11862-8849 (20711)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$82.83	$131.99	+$49.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.6¢	$46.38	—	-$46.38
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$138.53	$148.66	+$10.13	49% 5071-5242 (10313)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.5¢	$107.81	$148.66	+$40.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 18¢	$30.72	—	-$30.72
Atomforge	Downavg 90.2¢	$127.82	$141.78	+$13.96	65% 3956-2135 (6091)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 93¢	$120.9	$130	+$9.1	57% 7686-5888 (13574)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$61.59	$51.95	-$9.64	53% 27000-24047 (51047)
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.9¢	$26.12	—	-$26.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.3¢	$35.47	$51.95	+$16.48
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Upavg 16.7¢	$48.25	—	-$48.25	62% 28326-17682 (46008)
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 92.1¢	$64.75	$55.46	-$9.28	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.1¢	$51.1	$55.46	+$4.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.1¢	$13.64	—	-$13.64
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$50.98	$60.42	+$9.44	66% 125021-64333 (189354)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 92¢	$47.24	$46.38	+$3.2	61% 94291-59323 (153614)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 62¢	$43.68	$70.45	+$26.77	56% 12327-9516 (21843)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 93¢	$42.88	$43.99	+$2.07	55% 7269-5950 (13219)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$41.15	$62.98	+$21.83	55% 44407-36899 (81306)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 85.7¢	$23.25	$24.16	+$0.91	52% 89734-84193 (173927)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 71¢	$36	$50.7	+$14.7	34% 18628-35622 (54250)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 68¢	$19.49	$28.66	+$9.17	66% 111803-58146 (169949)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$3.17	—	-$3.17	48% 23152-25343 (48495)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 63¢	$11.56	$18.35	+$6.79	65% 22283-12231 (34514)
NO Nobey1<$100	Downavg 68¢	$6.8	$10	+$3.2	40% 410-627 (1037)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 21.5¢	$4.95	—	-$4.95	55% 17594-14210 (31804)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,095.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$66.92

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

Both legs:

Down$952.9682¢+$209.33

Up$142.411.7¢-$142.4

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$404.91

Value

$368.97

PnL

-$35.94

Record

54%

15347-12855 (28202)

Both legs:

Down$263.5971.4¢+$105.38

Up$141.3224.2¢-$141.32

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$288.63

Value

—

PnL

-$288.63

Record

58%

37531-26786 (64317)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$206.3

Value

$189.1

PnL

-$17.21

Record

56%

13606-10852 (24458)

Both legs:

Down$139.5773.8¢+$49.53

Up$66.7326.4¢-$66.73

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$164

Value

$249.99

PnL

+$86

Record

55%

8485-6933 (15418)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.57

Value

$158.21

PnL

+$2.64

Record

60%

12052-7944 (19996)

Both legs:

Down$132.0683.5¢+$26.15

Up$23.519.9¢-$23.51

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$129.2

Value

$131.99

PnL

+$2.79

Record

57%

11862-8849 (20711)

Both legs:

Down$82.8362.8¢+$49.17

Up$46.3818.6¢-$46.38

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$138.53

Value

$148.66

PnL

+$10.13

Record

49%

5071-5242 (10313)

Both legs:

Down$107.8172.5¢+$40.84

Up$30.7218¢-$30.72

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$127.82

Value

$141.78

PnL

+$13.96

Record

65%

3956-2135 (6091)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$120.9

Value

$130

PnL

+$9.1

Record

57%

7686-5888 (13574)

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$61.59

Value

$51.95

PnL

-$9.64

Record

53%

27000-24047 (51047)

Both legs:

Up$26.1211.9¢-$26.12

Down$35.4768.3¢+$16.48

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Invested

$48.25

Value

—

PnL

-$48.25

Record

62%

28326-17682 (46008)

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$64.75

Value

$55.46

PnL

-$9.28

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

Both legs:

Invested

$50.98

Value

$60.42

PnL

+$9.44

Record

66%

125021-64333 (189354)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$47.24

Value

$46.38

PnL

+$3.2

Record

61%

94291-59323 (153614)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$43.68

Value

$70.45

PnL

+$26.77

Record

56%

12327-9516 (21843)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$42.88

Value

$43.99

PnL

+$2.07

Record

55%

7269-5950 (13219)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$41.15

Value

$62.98

PnL

+$21.83

Record

55%

44407-36899 (81306)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$23.25

Value

$24.16

PnL

+$0.91

Record

52%

89734-84193 (173927)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$36

Value

$50.7

PnL

+$14.7

Record

34%

18628-35622 (54250)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$19.49

Value

$28.66

PnL

+$9.17

Record

66%

111803-58146 (169949)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$3.17

Value

—

PnL

-$3.17

Record

48%

23152-25343 (48495)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$11.56

Value

$18.35

PnL

+$6.79

Record

65%

22283-12231 (34514)

Nobey1<$100

Down

Invested

$6.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.2

Record

40%

410-627 (1037)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

—

PnL

-$4.95

Record

55%

17594-14210 (31804)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 20 top traders (70%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9845cb7...7e3a34

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793259900

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$66.92

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$35.94

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $249.99

+$86

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Down — $141.78

+$13.96

wzbbb

Down — $130

+$9.1

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