Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$22.61

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 29 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,432

Combined PnL+$226.12

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares362

Combined PnL-$203.51

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.6¢	$812.56	$764.22	-$48.34	54% 15347-12855 (28202)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$480.77	$485.63	+$4.86	56% 29279-23029 (52308)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 58.1¢	$360.77	$322.14	-$38.64	56% 13606-10852 (24458)
ST std0	Downavg 73.6¢	$307.28	$319.38	+$12.1	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$273.82	$244.88	-$28.95	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.1¢	$144.84	$244.88	+$100.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.2¢	$128.98	—	-$128.98
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 62.7¢	$213.46	$192.92	-$20.54	49% 5071-5242 (10313)
SP spartacray	Downavg 81.5¢	$183.3	$156.5	-$26.8	53% 27000-24047 (51047)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 45.9¢	$140.48	$305.93	+$165.45	58% 37531-26786 (64317)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 64¢	$135.55	$148.56	+$13.01	56% 12327-9516 (21843)
Atomforge	Downavg 95¢	$121.52	$127.92	+$6.4	65% 3956-2135 (6091)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 68.7¢	$73.34	$106.69	+$33.35	57% 11862-8849 (20711)
machinelearned	Downavg 66¢	$66	$100	+$34	55% 8485-6933 (15418)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$87.42	$91.01	+$5.23	60% 12052-7944 (19996)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 34.5¢	$116.98	$52.36	-$64.62	62% 28326-17682 (46008)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.1¢	$47.19	$52.36	+$5.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.5¢	$69.79	—	-$69.79
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$63.42	—	-$63.42	55% 7269-5950 (13219)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 57¢	$10.11	$12.42	+$2.31	49% 77765-81236 (159001)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$55.74	—	-$55.74	59% 6614-4574 (11188)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$46.75	$56.65	+$9.9	55% 17594-14210 (31804)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 68¢	$39.68	$58.36	+$18.68	64% 39836-22759 (62595)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$52.7	$40	+$13.1	65% 22283-12231 (34514)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 70¢	$40.7	$58.14	+$17.44	66% 125021-64333 (189354)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 68¢	$17.02	$25.03	+$8.01	61% 94291-59323 (153614)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$18.96	—	-$18.96	55% 44407-36899 (81306)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 68¢	$13.8	$20.29	+$6.49	52% 89734-84193 (173927)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 39.5¢	$39.5	—	-$39.5	55% 23740-19185 (42925)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$812.56

Value

$764.22

PnL

-$48.34

Record

54%

15347-12855 (28202)

THG.

Down

Invested

$480.77

Value

$485.63

PnL

+$4.86

Record

56%

29279-23029 (52308)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$360.77

Value

$322.14

PnL

-$38.64

Record

56%

13606-10852 (24458)

std0

Down

Invested

$307.28

Value

$319.38

PnL

+$12.1

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$273.82

Value

$244.88

PnL

-$28.95

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

Both legs:

Down$144.8459.1¢+$100.04

Up$128.9819.2¢-$128.98

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$213.46

Value

$192.92

PnL

-$20.54

Record

49%

5071-5242 (10313)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$183.3

Value

$156.5

PnL

-$26.8

Record

53%

27000-24047 (51047)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$140.48

Value

$305.93

PnL

+$165.45

Record

58%

37531-26786 (64317)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$135.55

Value

$148.56

PnL

+$13.01

Record

56%

12327-9516 (21843)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$121.52

Value

$127.92

PnL

+$6.4

Record

65%

3956-2135 (6091)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$73.34

Value

$106.69

PnL

+$33.35

Record

57%

11862-8849 (20711)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$66

Value

$100

PnL

+$34

Record

55%

8485-6933 (15418)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$87.42

Value

$91.01

PnL

+$5.23

Record

60%

12052-7944 (19996)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$116.98

Value

$52.36

PnL

-$64.62

Record

62%

28326-17682 (46008)

Both legs:

Down$47.1990.1¢+$5.17

Up$69.7934.5¢-$69.79

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$63.42

Value

—

PnL

-$63.42

Record

55%

7269-5950 (13219)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$10.11

Value

$12.42

PnL

+$2.31

Record

49%

77765-81236 (159001)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$55.74

Value

—

PnL

-$55.74

Record

59%

6614-4574 (11188)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$46.75

Value

$56.65

PnL

+$9.9

Record

55%

17594-14210 (31804)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$39.68

Value

$58.36

PnL

+$18.68

Record

64%

39836-22759 (62595)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$52.7

Value

$40

PnL

+$13.1

Record

65%

22283-12231 (34514)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$40.7

Value

$58.14

PnL

+$17.44

Record

66%

125021-64333 (189354)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$17.02

Value

$25.03

PnL

+$8.01

Record

61%

94291-59323 (153614)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$18.96

Value

—

PnL

-$18.96

Record

55%

44407-36899 (81306)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$13.8

Value

$20.29

PnL

+$6.49

Record

52%

89734-84193 (173927)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$39.5

Value

—

PnL

-$39.5

Record

55%

23740-19185 (42925)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 29 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x2699723d...498551

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793259600

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $764.22

-$48.34

THG.

Down — $485.63

+$4.86

GoodFallen

Down — $322.14

-$38.64

std0

Down — $319.38

+$12.1

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$28.95

ply-pm0

Down — $192.92

-$20.54

spartacray

Down — $156.5

-$26.8

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $305.93

+$165.45

FairValueMachine

Down — $148.56

+$13.01

Atomforge

Down — $127.92

+$6.4

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