Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

-$133.98

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,456

Combined PnL+$299.98

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares829

Combined PnL-$433.96

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$418.56	77% 9320-2762 (12082)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$1.4K	$2.6K	+$1.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$781.1	—	-$781.1
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$56.02	54% 15347-12855 (28202)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$633.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$689.59	—	-$689.59
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$19.15	56% 13606-10852 (24458)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$695.6	$1.1K	+$415.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$434.82	—	-$434.82
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$977.74	$1.0K	+$26.88	56% 14197-11140 (25337)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$766.34	$1.0K	+$238.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.5¢	$211.4	—	-$211.4
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$853.19	$953.06	+$99.88	56% 12327-9516 (21843)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$560.87	$953.06	+$392.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$292.32	—	-$292.32
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 50.4¢	$734.71	$743.07	+$8.36	49% 5071-5242 (10313)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$734.71	$727.81	-$6.9	57% 11862-8849 (20711)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$503.55	$727.81	+$224.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.1¢	$231.16	—	-$231.16
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$452.94	$450.47	-$2.48	55% 7269-5950 (13219)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$312.52	$450.47	+$137.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.5¢	$140.43	—	-$140.43
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 68.8¢	$429.52	$452.06	+$22.54	60% 12052-7944 (19996)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 49.2¢	$294.72	$522.12	+$227.41	58% 37531-26786 (64317)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 48.8¢	$242.73	—	-$242.73	59% 6614-4574 (11188)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 71.7¢	$251.31	$205.5	-$45.81	62% 28326-17682 (46008)
SP spartacray	Downavg 65.2¢	$177.95	$183.92	+$5.96	53% 27000-24047 (51047)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$163.13	$165.79	+$2.66	55% 23740-19185 (42925)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.2¢	$113.14	$165.79	+$52.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.2¢	$50	—	-$50
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$126.33	$130.06	+$3.73	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$66.52	$130.06	+$63.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$59.82	—	-$59.82
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$107.37	$110.08	+$2.71	56% 57728-44595 (102323)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.4¢	$80.83	$110.08	+$29.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 32¢	$26.54	—	-$26.54
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$95.72	$103.68	+$7.95	55% 44407-36899 (81306)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.7¢	$75.38	$103.68	+$28.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.7¢	$20.34	—	-$20.34
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 64.6¢	$86.58	$133.7	+$47.11	66% 111803-58146 (169949)
Atomforge	Downavg 88.7¢	$114.08	$128.67	+$14.59	65% 3956-2135 (6091)
RO robustmstCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$47.38	—	-$47.38	47% 101-112 (213)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$20.91	$28.4	+$7.49	46% 37996-44793 (82789)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$14.43	$17.27	+$2.84	63% 51496-30306 (81802)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 26.6¢	$19.2	—	-$19.2	55% 8485-6933 (15418)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$50.18	—	-$50.18	66% 125021-64333 (189354)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$16.01	$20.52	+$4.5	65% 22283-12231 (34514)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,150.96

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$418.56

Record

77%

9320-2762 (12082)

Both legs:

Down$1,369.8653.3¢+$1.2K

Up$781.140.8¢-$781.1

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,757.1

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$56.02

Record

54%

15347-12855 (28202)

Both legs:

Down$1,067.562.8¢+$633.57

Up$689.5932.9¢-$689.59

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,130.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$19.15

Record

56%

13606-10852 (24458)

Both legs:

Down$695.662.6¢+$415.68

Up$434.8232.2¢-$434.82

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$977.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$26.88

Record

56%

14197-11140 (25337)

Both legs:

Down$766.3476.3¢+$238.28

Up$211.423.5¢-$211.4

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$853.19

Value

$953.06

PnL

+$99.88

Record

56%

12327-9516 (21843)

Both legs:

Down$560.8758.8¢+$392.2

Up$292.3234.9¢-$292.32

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$734.71

Value

$743.07

PnL

+$8.36

Record

49%

5071-5242 (10313)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$734.71

Value

$727.81

PnL

-$6.9

Record

57%

11862-8849 (20711)

Both legs:

Down$503.5569.2¢+$224.25

Up$231.1637.1¢-$231.16

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$452.94

Value

$450.47

PnL

-$2.48

Record

55%

7269-5950 (13219)

Both legs:

Down$312.5269.4¢+$137.95

Up$140.4332.5¢-$140.43

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$429.52

Value

$452.06

PnL

+$22.54

Record

60%

12052-7944 (19996)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$294.72

Value

$522.12

PnL

+$227.41

Record

58%

37531-26786 (64317)

13897651CTR

Invested

$242.73

Value

—

PnL

-$242.73

Record

59%

6614-4574 (11188)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$251.31

Value

$205.5

PnL

-$45.81

Record

62%

28326-17682 (46008)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$177.95

Value

$183.92

PnL

+$5.96

Record

53%

27000-24047 (51047)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$163.13

Value

$165.79

PnL

+$2.66

Record

55%

23740-19185 (42925)

Both legs:

Down$113.1468.2¢+$52.66

Up$5036.2¢-$50

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$126.33

Value

$130.06

PnL

+$3.73

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

Both legs:

Down$66.5251.1¢+$63.55

Up$59.8242.7¢-$59.82

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$107.37

Value

$110.08

PnL

+$2.71

Record

56%

57728-44595 (102323)

Both legs:

Down$80.8373.4¢+$29.25

Up$26.5432¢-$26.54

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95.72

Value

$103.68

PnL

+$7.95

Record

55%

44407-36899 (81306)

Both legs:

Down$75.3872.7¢+$28.29

Up$20.3420.7¢-$20.34

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$86.58

Value

$133.7

PnL

+$47.11

Record

66%

111803-58146 (169949)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$114.08

Value

$128.67

PnL

+$14.59

Record

65%

3956-2135 (6091)

robustmstCTR<$100

Invested

$47.38

Value

—

PnL

-$47.38

Record

47%

101-112 (213)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$20.91

Value

$28.4

PnL

+$7.49

Record

46%

37996-44793 (82789)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$14.43

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$2.84

Record

63%

51496-30306 (81802)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

—

PnL

-$19.2

Record

55%

8485-6933 (15418)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$50.18

Value

—

PnL

-$50.18

Record

66%

125021-64333 (189354)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$16.01

Value

$20.52

PnL

+$4.5

Record

65%

22283-12231 (34514)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xee9ed6d3...5dadbb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793259300

Traders in this Market

NIULAI4

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$418.56

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $743.07

+$8.36

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.9

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.48

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $452.06

+$22.54

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $522.12

+$227.41

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