Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 31 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,654

Combined PnL+$76.35

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,741

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 95¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$65.4	93% 22867-1744 (24611)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 53¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.3K	54% 15337-12848 (28185)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 70.5¢	$637.45	$556.27	-$81.18	51% 16993-16549 (33542)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 56.7¢	$531.16	—	-$531.16	56% 13600-10840 (24440)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 56.2¢	$454.48	$433.33	-$21.14	49% 5063-5234 (10297)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 60.5¢	$363.04	—	-$363.04	48% 23145-25312 (48457)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 53.2¢	$204.31	$280.82	+$76.51	55% 7256-5944 (13200)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 95¢	$347.96	$315	-$32.96	49% 77753-81199 (158952)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 54.7¢	$261.88	—	-$261.88	56% 12317-9509 (21826)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 60¢	$223.72	$102.59	-$121.13	64% 39822-22752 (62574)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60¢	$181.66	—	-$181.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$42.06	$102.59	+$60.53
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 59¢	$236	—	-$236	55% 8478-6924 (15402)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 39¢	$117.01	$180.02	+$63.01	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
ST std0	Downavg 49.9¢	$158.95	$170.06	+$11.11	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 56.7¢	$190.81	—	-$190.81	59% 6605-4565 (11170)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$165.44	$100.05	-$65.39	56% 57718-44587 (102305)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$124.42	—	-$124.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$41.02	$100.05	+$59.03
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 48.2¢	$138.61	—	-$138.61	58% 37525-26772 (64297)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 60.1¢	$168.4	—	-$168.4	57% 10224-7661 (17885)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$131.62	$103.48	-$28.14	58% 60246-43973 (104219)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$88.55	—	-$88.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.6¢	$43.07	$103.48	+$60.41
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 59¢	$147.97	—	-$147.97	34% 18620-35608 (54228)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$103.18	$104.22	+$1.04	74% 102263-36349 (138612)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$85.22	—	-$85.22	46% 37988-44761 (82749)
AS asidjasiodja	Downavg 95¢	$100.92	$82	-$18.52	61% 94254-59306 (153560)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$156.09	$33	-$123.09	57% 11854-8839 (20693)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$141.24	—	-$141.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$14.85	$33	+$18.15
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$124.46	$40.69	-$83.77	60% 12044-7933 (19977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$21.58	$40.69	+$19.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$102.88	—	-$102.88
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95¢	$77.08	$61.26	-$15.82	52% 89700-84165 (173865)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,302.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$65.4

Record

93%

22867-1744 (24611)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,279.57

Value

—

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

15337-12848 (28185)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$637.45

Value

$556.27

PnL

-$81.18

Record

51%

16993-16549 (33542)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$531.16

Value

—

PnL

-$531.16

Record

56%

13600-10840 (24440)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$454.48

Value

$433.33

PnL

-$21.14

Record

49%

5063-5234 (10297)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$363.04

Value

—

PnL

-$363.04

Record

48%

23145-25312 (48457)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$204.31

Value

$280.82

PnL

+$76.51

Record

55%

7256-5944 (13200)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$347.96

Value

$315

PnL

-$32.96

Record

49%

77753-81199 (158952)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$261.88

Value

—

PnL

-$261.88

Record

56%

12317-9509 (21826)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$223.72

Value

$102.59

PnL

-$121.13

Record

64%

39822-22752 (62574)

Both legs:

Up$181.6660¢-$181.66

Down$42.0641¢+$60.53

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$236

Value

—

PnL

-$236

Record

55%

8478-6924 (15402)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$117.01

Value

$180.02

PnL

+$63.01

Record

54%

10628-9072 (19700)

std0

Down

Invested

$158.95

Value

$170.06

PnL

+$11.11

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

13897651CTR

Invested

$190.81

Value

—

PnL

-$190.81

Record

59%

6605-4565 (11170)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$165.44

Value

$100.05

PnL

-$65.39

Record

56%

57718-44587 (102305)

Both legs:

Up$124.4262¢-$124.42

Down$41.0241¢+$59.03

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$138.61

Value

—

PnL

-$138.61

Record

58%

37525-26772 (64297)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Invested

$168.4

Value

—

PnL

-$168.4

Record

57%

10224-7661 (17885)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$131.62

Value

$103.48

PnL

-$28.14

Record

58%

60246-43973 (104219)

Both legs:

Up$88.5559¢-$88.55

Down$43.0741.6¢+$60.41

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$147.97

Value

—

PnL

-$147.97

Record

34%

18620-35608 (54228)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$103.18

Value

$104.22

PnL

+$1.04

Record

74%

102263-36349 (138612)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$85.22

Value

—

PnL

-$85.22

Record

46%

37988-44761 (82749)

asidjasiodja

Down

Invested

$100.92

Value

$82

PnL

-$18.52

Record

61%

94254-59306 (153560)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$156.09

Value

$33

PnL

-$123.09

Record

57%

11854-8839 (20693)

Both legs:

Up$141.2453.5¢-$141.24

Down$14.8545¢+$18.15

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$124.46

Value

$40.69

PnL

-$83.77

Record

60%

12044-7933 (19977)

Both legs:

Down$21.5853¢+$19.11

Up$102.8849.6¢-$102.88

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$77.08

Value

$61.26

PnL

-$15.82

Record

52%

89700-84165 (173865)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 31 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x70a88f9d...ff0d3d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793258400

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$65.4

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.3K

gansinimen

Down — $556.27

-$81.18

GoodFallen

CTR

Up — $0

-$531.16

ply-pm0

Down — $433.33

-$21.14

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

-$363.04

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $280.82

+$76.51

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $315

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

ohioism

Arbitrage — excluded