Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 97% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 97%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Signal

30 of 31 top traders (97%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up30 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,496

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$45.01

Up — 97%Down — 3%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$139.89	54% 15337-12848 (28185)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$763.86	$1.0K	+$280.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$420.68	—	-$420.68
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 73¢	$794.52	$830.14	+$35.62	56% 13600-10840 (24440)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$605.68	$830.14	+$224.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.3¢	$188.84	—	-$188.84
SP spartacray	Upavg 76.8¢	$386.08	$455.14	+$69.06	53% 26998-24047 (51045)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$399.68	$402.05	+$2.36	56% 12317-9509 (21826)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.4¢	$283.23	$402.05	+$118.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.2¢	$116.45	—	-$116.45
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$399.3	$420.14	+$20.84	56% 14197-11138 (25335)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.4¢	$291.57	$420.14	+$128.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.9¢	$107.73	—	-$107.73
MayorMamdani	Upavg 84.3¢	$330.07	$379.03	+$48.96	55% 44381-36870 (81251)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 79.6¢	$299.19	$331.88	+$32.69	62% 28326-17682 (46008)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 68.6¢	$299.16	$306.28	+$7.12	49% 5063-5234 (10297)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.6¢	$210.17	$306.28	+$96.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.4¢	$88.99	—	-$88.99
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 77.6¢	$280.97	$349.4	+$68.43	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 76.3¢	$310.31	$406.53	+$96.22	58% 60246-43973 (104219)
ohioism	Upavg 74.3¢	$260.15	$350.2	+$90.05	64% 39822-22752 (62574)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 80¢	$240	$300	+$60	48% 23145-25312 (48457)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 82.1¢	$203.96	$208.1	+$4.14	67% 53174-26585 (79759)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.1¢	$170.87	$208.1	+$37.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.9¢	$33.09	—	-$33.09
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 78.5¢	$242.03	$249.67	+$9.64	60% 12044-7933 (19977)
13 13897651	Upavg 54.4¢	$204.36	$265.41	+$61.06	59% 6605-4565 (11170)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 74.7¢	$171.39	$229.5	+$58.11	57% 11854-8839 (20693)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 74¢	$189.39	$256	+$66.61	62% 43648-26624 (70272)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50.7¢	$172.55	$340.53	+$167.98	58% 37525-26772 (64297)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 79.2¢	$181.83	$189.29	+$7.46	55% 7256-5944 (13200)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 75.5¢	$151.29	$200.34	+$49.05	56% 57718-44587 (102305)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 83.1¢	$155.28	$186.94	+$31.66	49% 77753-81199 (158952)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 61.9¢	$106.19	$138.52	+$32.33	55% 23727-19181 (42908)
pspspsps5	Upavg 72.8¢	$88.3	$121.29	+$32.99	46% 37988-44761 (82749)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 76¢	$75.98	$99.98	+$23.99	51% 16993-16549 (33542)
LI Little-big	Upavg 60¢	$94	$156.67	+$62.67	34% 18620-35608 (54228)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,184.53

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$139.89

Record

54%

15337-12848 (28185)

Both legs:

Up$763.8673.1¢+$280.79

Down$420.6831.7¢-$420.68

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$794.52

Value

$830.14

PnL

+$35.62

Record

56%

13600-10840 (24440)

Both legs:

Up$605.6873¢+$224.46

Down$188.8430.3¢-$188.84

spartacray

Invested

$386.08

Value

$455.14

PnL

+$69.06

Record

53%

26998-24047 (51045)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$399.68

Value

$402.05

PnL

+$2.36

Record

56%

12317-9509 (21826)

Both legs:

Up$283.2370.4¢+$118.81

Down$116.4531.2¢-$116.45

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$399.3

Value

$420.14

PnL

+$20.84

Record

56%

14197-11138 (25335)

Both legs:

Up$291.5769.4¢+$128.57

Down$107.7333.9¢-$107.73

MayorMamdani

Invested

$330.07

Value

$379.03

PnL

+$48.96

Record

55%

44381-36870 (81251)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$299.19

Value

$331.88

PnL

+$32.69

Record

62%

28326-17682 (46008)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$299.16

Value

$306.28

PnL

+$7.12

Record

49%

5063-5234 (10297)

Both legs:

Up$210.1768.6¢+$96.11

Down$88.9926.4¢-$88.99

thesidehustle

Invested

$280.97

Value

$349.4

PnL

+$68.43

Record

54%

10628-9072 (19700)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$310.31

Value

$406.53

PnL

+$96.22

Record

58%

60246-43973 (104219)

ohioism

Invested

$260.15

Value

$350.2

PnL

+$90.05

Record

64%

39822-22752 (62574)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$240

Value

$300

PnL

+$60

Record

48%

23145-25312 (48457)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$203.96

Value

$208.1

PnL

+$4.14

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

Both legs:

Up$170.8782.1¢+$37.23

Down$33.0914.9¢-$33.09

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$242.03

Value

$249.67

PnL

+$9.64

Record

60%

12044-7933 (19977)

13897651

Invested

$204.36

Value

$265.41

PnL

+$61.06

Record

59%

6605-4565 (11170)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$171.39

Value

$229.5

PnL

+$58.11

Record

57%

11854-8839 (20693)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$189.39

Value

$256

PnL

+$66.61

Record

62%

43648-26624 (70272)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$172.55

Value

$340.53

PnL

+$167.98

Record

58%

37525-26772 (64297)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$181.83

Value

$189.29

PnL

+$7.46

Record

55%

7256-5944 (13200)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$151.29

Value

$200.34

PnL

+$49.05

Record

56%

57718-44587 (102305)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$155.28

Value

$186.94

PnL

+$31.66

Record

49%

77753-81199 (158952)

sir-upalot

Invested

$106.19

Value

$138.52

PnL

+$32.33

Record

55%

23727-19181 (42908)

pspspsps5

Invested

$88.3

Value

$121.29

PnL

+$32.99

Record

46%

37988-44761 (82749)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$75.98

Value

$99.98

PnL

+$23.99

Record

51%

16993-16549 (33542)

Little-big

Invested

$94

Value

$156.67

PnL

+$62.67

Record

34%

18620-35608 (54228)

Smart Money Signal

30 of 31 top traders (97%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x33d205dc...4cf3b9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793258100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Up — $455.14

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Up — $379.03

+$48.96

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $331.88

+$32.69

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.12

thesidehustle

Up — $349.4

+$68.43

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $406.53

+$96.22

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