Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 36 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares10,945

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,863

Combined PnL-$284.24

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 94.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$100.06	93% 22867-1744 (24611)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 62.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$103.56	54% 15337-12848 (28185)
NIULAI4	Downavg 88.8¢	$1.0K	$967.42	-$79.27	77% 9315-2760 (12075)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 55.5¢	$571.2	$958.18	+$386.98	56% 12317-9509 (21826)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 58.3¢	$746.88	$862.04	+$115.17	56% 13600-10840 (24440)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 47.2¢	$423	$862.16	+$439.15	58% 37525-26772 (64297)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 81.7¢	$815.61	$767.4	-$48.2	56% 14197-11138 (25335)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 76.7¢	$592.27	$566.51	-$25.76	57% 11854-8839 (20693)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 84.5¢	$443.26	$460.02	+$16.75	49% 5063-5234 (10297)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 72.4¢	$351.05	$365.87	+$14.81	55% 7256-5944 (13200)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.5¢	$257.29	$305.97	+$48.68	60% 12044-7933 (19977)
13 13897651	Downavg 56.1¢	$222.44	$396.58	+$174.14	59% 6605-4565 (11170)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 55¢	$106.91	$194.44	+$87.53	55% 23727-19181 (42908)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 76¢	$145.82	$180	+$34.18	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
AL almach	Downavg 78¢	$136.01	$145.52	+$9.51	55% 48143-39691 (87834)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 84.2¢	$122.99	$111.48	-$11.51	55% 8478-6924 (15402)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.2¢	$93.86	$111.48	+$17.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.6¢	$29.13	—	-$29.13
Atomforge	Downavg 91¢	$120	$131.87	+$11.87	65% 3950-2132 (6082)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 74.7¢	$143.21	$120.22	-$23	55% 17546-14181 (31727)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 5.2¢	$58.5	—	-$58.5	62% 43648-26624 (70272)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 66.1¢	$76.58	$84.25	+$7.66	62% 28326-17682 (46008)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 83¢	$70.71	$65.32	-$1.83	61% 94254-59306 (153560)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$64.67	$66.46	+$1.79	66% 124974-64321 (189295)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 49¢	$20.1	$41	+$20.9	57% 7682-5883 (13565)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$53.02	—	-$53.02	66% 111786-58127 (169913)
ST std0<$100	Downavg 85¢	$37.21	$35.3	-$1.91	67% 53174-26585 (79759)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,718.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$100.06

Record

93%

22867-1744 (24611)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,352.32

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$103.56

Record

54%

15337-12848 (28185)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$1,046.7

Value

$967.42

PnL

-$79.27

Record

77%

9315-2760 (12075)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$571.2

Value

$958.18

PnL

+$386.98

Record

56%

12317-9509 (21826)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$746.88

Value

$862.04

PnL

+$115.17

Record

56%

13600-10840 (24440)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$423

Value

$862.16

PnL

+$439.15

Record

58%

37525-26772 (64297)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$815.61

Value

$767.4

PnL

-$48.2

Record

56%

14197-11138 (25335)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$592.27

Value

$566.51

PnL

-$25.76

Record

57%

11854-8839 (20693)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$443.26

Value

$460.02

PnL

+$16.75

Record

49%

5063-5234 (10297)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$351.05

Value

$365.87

PnL

+$14.81

Record

55%

7256-5944 (13200)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$257.29

Value

$305.97

PnL

+$48.68

Record

60%

12044-7933 (19977)

13897651

Down

Invested

$222.44

Value

$396.58

PnL

+$174.14

Record

59%

6605-4565 (11170)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$106.91

Value

$194.44

PnL

+$87.53

Record

55%

23727-19181 (42908)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$145.82

Value

$180

PnL

+$34.18

Record

54%

10628-9072 (19700)

almach

Down

Invested

$136.01

Value

$145.52

PnL

+$9.51

Record

55%

48143-39691 (87834)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$122.99

Value

$111.48

PnL

-$11.51

Record

55%

8478-6924 (15402)

Both legs:

Down$93.8684.2¢+$17.62

Up$29.139.6¢-$29.13

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$120

Value

$131.87

PnL

+$11.87

Record

65%

3950-2132 (6082)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$143.21

Value

$120.22

PnL

-$23

Record

55%

17546-14181 (31727)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$58.5

Value

—

PnL

-$58.5

Record

62%

43648-26624 (70272)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$76.58

Value

$84.25

PnL

+$7.66

Record

62%

28326-17682 (46008)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$70.71

Value

$65.32

PnL

-$1.83

Record

61%

94254-59306 (153560)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$64.67

Value

$66.46

PnL

+$1.79

Record

66%

124974-64321 (189295)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$20.1

Value

$41

PnL

+$20.9

Record

57%

7682-5883 (13565)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$53.02

Value

—

PnL

-$53.02

Record

66%

111786-58127 (169913)

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$37.21

Value

$35.3

PnL

-$1.91

Record

67%

53174-26585 (79759)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 36 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7437ad2a...959afa

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793257500

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.8K

+$100.06

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.5K

+$103.56

NIULAI4

Down — $967.42

-$79.27

FairValueMachine

Down — $958.18

+$386.98

GoodFallen

Down — $862.04

+$115.17

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $862.16

+$439.15

CrouchPredictions

Down — $767.4

-$48.2

EZTRADENL2

Down — $566.51

-$25.76

ply-pm0

Down — $460.02

+$16.75

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $365.87

+$14.81

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