Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 89%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Signal

25 of 30 top traders (83%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,245

Combined PnL$-8.1K

Down5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,313

Combined PnL+$50.26

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 58.8¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K	54% 15337-12848 (28185)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 54.9¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	56% 14197-11138 (25335)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 72.6¢	$1.4K	—	$-1.4K	77% 9315-2760 (12075)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 58.4¢	$971.09	$1.2K	+$185.57	56% 13600-10840 (24440)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$569.8	—	-$569.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.7¢	$401.29	$1.2K	+$755.38
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 66.3¢	$849.49	—	-$849.49	57% 11854-8839 (20693)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 60.1¢	$552.04	—	-$552.04	56% 12317-9509 (21826)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$475.13	$493.81	+$18.68	49% 5063-5234 (10297)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$247.16	—	-$247.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$227.97	$493.81	+$265.84
TH thesidehustleCTR	Upavg 49.2¢	$265.58	—	-$265.58	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
TH THG.	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.01	56% 29277-23029 (52306)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$327.93	$343.24	+$15.3	55% 7256-5944 (13200)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.4¢	$150.9	—	-$150.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$177.03	$343.24	+$166.21
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 72.5¢	$220.77	—	-$220.77	58% 60246-43973 (104219)
ohioismCTR	Upavg 72.6¢	$219.71	—	-$219.71	64% 39822-22752 (62574)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 45.6¢	$130.45	—	-$130.45	57% 10224-7661 (17885)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 36.6¢	$153.52	$299.09	+$145.58	55% 48143-39691 (87834)
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.7¢	$44.19	—	-$44.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$109.33	$299.09	+$189.76
SI sir-upalotCTR	Upavg 56.4¢	$151.58	—	-$151.58	55% 23727-19181 (42908)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$165.6	$184.28	+$18.68	60% 12044-7933 (19977)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.7¢	$123.27	—	-$123.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 23¢	$42.33	$184.28	+$141.95
AN antsaslykuCTR	Upavg 60.8¢	$110.76	—	-$110.76	66% 111786-58127 (169913)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$74.63	—	-$74.63	55% 8478-6924 (15402)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 64.2¢	$130.5	—	-$130.5	34% 18620-35608 (54228)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 81¢	$85.12	—	-$85.12	56% 57718-44587 (102305)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$65.34	—	-$64.7	61% 94254-59306 (153560)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$47.63	—	-$47.63	66% 124974-64321 (189295)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$43.95	—	-$43.95	55% 17546-14181 (31727)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 64.2¢	$53.96	—	-$53.96	55% 44381-36870 (81251)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$54.31	—	-$23.73	65% 22230-12205 (34435)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,979.67

Value

—

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

54%

15337-12848 (28185)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,557.21

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

56%

14197-11138 (25335)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$1,414.18

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

77%

9315-2760 (12075)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$971.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$185.57

Record

56%

13600-10840 (24440)

Both legs:

Up$569.858.4¢-$569.8

Down$401.2934.7¢+$755.38

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$849.49

Value

—

PnL

-$849.49

Record

57%

11854-8839 (20693)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$552.04

Value

—

PnL

-$552.04

Record

56%

12317-9509 (21826)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$475.13

Value

$493.81

PnL

+$18.68

Record

49%

5063-5234 (10297)

Both legs:

Up$247.1651.8¢-$247.16

Down$227.9746.2¢+$265.84

thesidehustleCTR

Invested

$265.58

Value

—

PnL

-$265.58

Record

54%

10628-9072 (19700)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,219.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.01

Record

56%

29277-23029 (52306)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$327.93

Value

$343.24

PnL

+$15.3

Record

55%

7256-5944 (13200)

Both legs:

Up$150.963.4¢-$150.9

Down$177.0351.6¢+$166.21

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$220.77

Value

—

PnL

-$220.77

Record

58%

60246-43973 (104219)

ohioismCTR

Invested

$219.71

Value

—

PnL

-$219.71

Record

64%

39822-22752 (62574)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Invested

$130.45

Value

—

PnL

-$130.45

Record

57%

10224-7661 (17885)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.52

Value

$299.09

PnL

+$145.58

Record

55%

48143-39691 (87834)

Both legs:

Up$44.1921.7¢-$44.19

Down$109.3336.6¢+$189.76

sir-upalotCTR

Invested

$151.58

Value

—

PnL

-$151.58

Record

55%

23727-19181 (42908)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$165.6

Value

$184.28

PnL

+$18.68

Record

60%

12044-7933 (19977)

Both legs:

Up$123.2774.7¢-$123.27

Down$42.3323¢+$141.95

antsaslykuCTR

Invested

$110.76

Value

—

PnL

-$110.76

Record

66%

111786-58127 (169913)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$74.63

Value

—

PnL

-$74.63

Record

55%

8478-6924 (15402)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$130.5

Value

—

PnL

-$130.5

Record

34%

18620-35608 (54228)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$85.12

Value

—

PnL

-$85.12

Record

56%

57718-44587 (102305)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$65.34

Value

—

PnL

-$64.7

Record

61%

94254-59306 (153560)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$47.63

Value

—

PnL

-$47.63

Record

66%

124974-64321 (189295)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$43.95

Value

—

PnL

-$43.95

Record

55%

17546-14181 (31727)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$53.96

Value

—

PnL

-$53.96

Record

55%

44381-36870 (81251)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$54.31

Value

—

PnL

-$23.73

Record

65%

22230-12205 (34435)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 30 top traders (83%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x60591438...889177

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793257200

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0

NIULAI4

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

thesidehustle

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $1.2K

+$13.01

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$15.3

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