Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$568.82

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 31 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares8,612

Combined PnL+$691.22

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,074

Combined PnL-$122.4

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Downavg 97.7¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$70.74	74% 102263-36349 (138612)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$1.77	59% 62072-43165 (105237)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 78¢	$883.63	$725.33	-$158.3	56% 14197-11138 (25335)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78¢	$566.05	$725.33	+$159.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.1¢	$317.57	—	-$317.57
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 50.4¢	$669.95	$679.18	+$9.23	54% 15337-12848 (28185)
MO mo-money	Downavg 61.7¢	$493.5	$645.48	+$151.98	55% 50174-40767 (90941)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 55.6¢	$288.42	$302.6	+$14.18	56% 13600-10840 (24440)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 55.7¢	$210.62	$349.72	+$139.1	56% 12317-9509 (21826)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 71.8¢	$254.38	$265.26	+$10.88	49% 5063-5234 (10297)
pspspsps5	Downavg 99¢	$276.66	$262.6	-$14.06	46% 37988-44761 (82749)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 74.4¢	$231.21	$244.87	+$13.66	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 56.4¢	$123.92	$201	+$77.08	57% 11854-8839 (20693)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 76.9¢	$127.77	$161.55	+$33.78	55% 17546-14181 (31727)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 86.5¢	$116.56	$131.18	+$14.62	60% 12044-7933 (19977)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 37.1¢	$116.19	$52.73	-$63.46	55% 7256-5944 (13200)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.4¢	$37.12	$52.73	+$15.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.1¢	$79.07	—	-$79.07
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 60¢	$60.23	$100.39	+$40.16	56% 57718-44587 (102305)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 60¢	$60.09	$100.15	+$40.06	62% 43648-26624 (70272)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$42.62	$61.36	+$18.74	66% 124974-64321 (189295)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 75¢	$34.72	$46.29	+$11.57	61% 94254-59306 (153560)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$38.56	$41.25	+$2.69	52% 89700-84165 (173865)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 9.3¢	$16.77	—	-$16.77	49% 77753-81199 (158952)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$30.9	$60	+$29.11	59% 6605-4565 (11170)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 24.5¢	$34.06	—	-$34.06	58% 37525-26772 (64297)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 46¢	$18.61	$33.95	+$15.34	58% 50856-37000 (87856)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98.3¢	$18.68	$19	+$0.32	93% 22867-1744 (24611)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	51% 19879-19038 (38917)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,031.98

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$70.74

Record

74%

102263-36349 (138612)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,772.95

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.77

Record

59%

62072-43165 (105237)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$883.63

Value

$725.33

PnL

-$158.3

Record

56%

14197-11138 (25335)

Both legs:

Down$566.0578¢+$159.27

Up$317.5729.1¢-$317.57

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$669.95

Value

$679.18

PnL

+$9.23

Record

54%

15337-12848 (28185)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$493.5

Value

$645.48

PnL

+$151.98

Record

55%

50174-40767 (90941)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$288.42

Value

$302.6

PnL

+$14.18

Record

56%

13600-10840 (24440)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$210.62

Value

$349.72

PnL

+$139.1

Record

56%

12317-9509 (21826)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$254.38

Value

$265.26

PnL

+$10.88

Record

49%

5063-5234 (10297)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$276.66

Value

$262.6

PnL

-$14.06

Record

46%

37988-44761 (82749)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$231.21

Value

$244.87

PnL

+$13.66

Record

54%

10628-9072 (19700)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$123.92

Value

$201

PnL

+$77.08

Record

57%

11854-8839 (20693)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$127.77

Value

$161.55

PnL

+$33.78

Record

55%

17546-14181 (31727)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$116.56

Value

$131.18

PnL

+$14.62

Record

60%

12044-7933 (19977)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$116.19

Value

$52.73

PnL

-$63.46

Record

55%

7256-5944 (13200)

Both legs:

Down$37.1270.4¢+$15.61

Up$79.0737.1¢-$79.07

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$60.23

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$40.16

Record

56%

57718-44587 (102305)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$60.09

Value

$100.15

PnL

+$40.06

Record

62%

43648-26624 (70272)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$42.62

Value

$61.36

PnL

+$18.74

Record

66%

124974-64321 (189295)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$34.72

Value

$46.29

PnL

+$11.57

Record

61%

94254-59306 (153560)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$38.56

Value

$41.25

PnL

+$2.69

Record

52%

89700-84165 (173865)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$16.77

Value

—

PnL

-$16.77

Record

49%

77753-81199 (158952)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$30.9

Value

$60

PnL

+$29.11

Record

59%

6605-4565 (11170)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$34.06

Value

—

PnL

-$34.06

Record

58%

37525-26772 (64297)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$18.61

Value

$33.95

PnL

+$15.34

Record

58%

50856-37000 (87856)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$18.68

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.32

Record

93%

22867-1744 (24611)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

19879-19038 (38917)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 31 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xab58ea29...637510

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793254800

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Down — $3.1K

+$70.74

0x50f7

Down — $1.8K

+$1.77

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$158.3

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $679.18

+$9.23

mo-money

Down — $645.48

+$151.98

GoodFallen

Down — $302.6

+$14.18

FairValueMachine

Down — $349.72

+$139.1

ply-pm0

Down — $265.26

+$10.88

pspspsps5

Down — $262.6

-$14.06

thesidehustle

Down — $244.87

+$13.66

Trade on Polymarket