Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$489.78

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 24 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,099

Combined PnL-$859.73

Down18 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,254

Combined PnL+$369.95

Up — 25%Down — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Upavg 45.1¢	$800	—	-$800	54% 168-144 (312)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 62.3¢	$587.94	$649.11	+$61.17	54% 15337-12848 (28185)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$511.37	$446.87	-$64.5	56% 14197-11138 (25335)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$294.57	$446.87	+$152.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.3¢	$216.8	—	-$216.8
machinelearned	Downavg 62.6¢	$257.18	$376.38	+$119.2	55% 8478-6924 (15402)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.8¢	$241.65	$239.59	-$2.06	49% 5063-5234 (10297)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 83.5¢	$219.17	$189.96	-$29.21	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.5¢	$158.57	$189.96	+$31.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.4¢	$60.6	—	-$60.6
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 45.2¢	$243.12	$154.08	-$89.04	56% 13600-10840 (24440)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$95.49	$154.08	+$58.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$147.63	—	-$147.63
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 34.1¢	$187.32	$143.62	-$43.71	57% 11854-8839 (20693)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.5¢	$92.61	$143.62	+$51
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.1¢	$94.71	—	-$94.71
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 77.7¢	$157.1	$202.26	+$45.17	55% 17546-14181 (31727)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 67.8¢	$155.49	$174	+$18.51	55% 7256-5944 (13200)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 5.2¢	$20.85	—	-$20.85	46% 37988-44761 (82749)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 5.8¢	$20.53	—	-$20.53	49% 77753-81199 (158952)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 93¢	$78.59	$84.5	+$5.92	64% 39822-22752 (62574)
13 13897651	Downavg 52¢	$70.76	$136.08	+$65.32	59% 6605-4565 (11170)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 73¢	$83.95	$60	-$23.95	56% 12317-9509 (21826)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$3	—	-$3	48% 23145-25312 (48457)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$36.07	$54.64	+$18.56	60% 12044-7933 (19977)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$47.15	$63.32	+$16.17	66% 124974-64321 (189295)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$44.22	$57.29	+$13.07	66% 111786-58127 (169913)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$10.55	—	-$10.55	57% 7682-5883 (13565)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$36.32	$50.04	+$13.72	58% 50856-37000 (87856)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$30.83	$45.02	+$14.19	61% 94254-59306 (153560)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$21.45	$18.22	-$3.23	52% 89700-84165 (173865)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$21.82	$26.1	+$4.27	65% 22230-12205 (34435)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$4.8	—	-$4.8	51% 19879-19038 (38917)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Invested

$800

Value

—

PnL

-$800

Record

54%

168-144 (312)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$587.94

Value

$649.11

PnL

+$61.17

Record

54%

15337-12848 (28185)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$511.37

Value

$446.87

PnL

-$64.5

Record

56%

14197-11138 (25335)

Both legs:

Down$294.5765.9¢+$152.3

Up$216.826.3¢-$216.8

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$257.18

Value

$376.38

PnL

+$119.2

Record

55%

8478-6924 (15402)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$241.65

Value

$239.59

PnL

-$2.06

Record

49%

5063-5234 (10297)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$219.17

Value

$189.96

PnL

-$29.21

Record

54%

10628-9072 (19700)

Both legs:

Down$158.5783.5¢+$31.39

Up$60.614.4¢-$60.6

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$243.12

Value

$154.08

PnL

-$89.04

Record

56%

13600-10840 (24440)

Both legs:

Down$95.4962¢+$58.59

Up$147.6345.2¢-$147.63

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$187.32

Value

$143.62

PnL

-$43.71

Record

57%

11854-8839 (20693)

Both legs:

Invested

$157.1

Value

$202.26

PnL

+$45.17

Record

55%

17546-14181 (31727)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$155.49

Value

$174

PnL

+$18.51

Record

55%

7256-5944 (13200)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$20.85

Value

—

PnL

-$20.85

Record

46%

37988-44761 (82749)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$20.53

Value

—

PnL

-$20.53

Record

49%

77753-81199 (158952)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$78.59

Value

$84.5

PnL

+$5.92

Record

64%

39822-22752 (62574)

13897651

Down

Invested

$70.76

Value

$136.08

PnL

+$65.32

Record

59%

6605-4565 (11170)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$83.95

Value

$60

PnL

-$23.95

Record

56%

12317-9509 (21826)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

23145-25312 (48457)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$36.07

Value

$54.64

PnL

+$18.56

Record

60%

12044-7933 (19977)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$47.15

Value

$63.32

PnL

+$16.17

Record

66%

124974-64321 (189295)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$44.22

Value

$57.29

PnL

+$13.07

Record

66%

111786-58127 (169913)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$10.55

Value

—

PnL

-$10.55

Record

57%

7682-5883 (13565)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$36.32

Value

$50.04

PnL

+$13.72

Record

58%

50856-37000 (87856)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$30.83

Value

$45.02

PnL

+$14.19

Record

61%

94254-59306 (153560)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$21.45

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$3.23

Record

52%

89700-84165 (173865)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$21.82

Value

$26.1

PnL

+$4.27

Record

65%

22230-12205 (34435)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

—

PnL

-$4.8

Record

51%

19879-19038 (38917)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 24 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x938c525e...4065d5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793254500

Traders in this Market

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

CTR

Up — $0

-$800

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $649.11

+$61.17

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$64.5

machinelearned

Down — $376.38

+$119.2

ply-pm0

Down — $239.59

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $202.26

+$45.17

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $174

+$18.51

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