Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 75%
$7.0K
-$544.33
Smart Money Signal
18 of 25 top traders (72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | -$4.59 | 59% 62072-43165 (105237) |
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR | Upavg 51.1¢ | $706 | — | -$706 | 54% 168-144 (312) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.2¢ | $426.52 | $496.77 | +$70.25 | 56% 14197-11138 (25335) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $170.79 | $194.56 | +$23.76 | 55% 17546-14181 (31727) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 91.2¢ | $135.5 | $148.56 | +$13.06 | 55% 44381-36870 (81251) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 62.3¢ | $123.62 | $198.57 | +$74.94 | 59% 6605-4565 (11170) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 79.3¢ | $109.81 | $87.86 | -$21.95 | 54% 15337-12848 (28185) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $81.55 | $85.33 | +$3.79 | 55% 8478-6924 (15402) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $53.46 | $63.73 | +$10.27 | 49% 5063-5234 (10297) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $42.52 | $50.02 | +$7.5 | 58% 50856-37000 (87856) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $48.67 | $52.75 | +$4.08 | 55% 7256-5944 (13200) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $41.58 | $46.89 | +$5.31 | 66% 124974-64321 (189295) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $31.11 | $35.63 | +$4.52 | 61% 94254-59306 (153560) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $25.68 | $26 | +$0.32 | 49% 77753-81199 (158952) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $28.66 | $32.75 | +$4.09 | 52% 89700-84165 (173865) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 72.2¢ | $39.71 | $55 | +$15.29 | 57% 11854-8839 (20693) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $20.57 | $24.8 | +$4.23 | 60% 12044-7933 (19977) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 48% 23145-25312 (48457) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.4¢ | $4.31 | — | -$4.31 | 46% 37988-44761 (82749) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.5¢ | $29.26 | — | -$29.26 | 54% 10628-9072 (19700) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $11.84 | $12 | +$0.16 | 93% 22867-1744 (24611) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $6.6 | — | -$6.6 | 51% 19879-19038 (38917) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $6.12 | $7.03 | +$0.91 | 51% 16993-16549 (33542) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.5¢ | $11.1 | — | -$11.1 | 56% 13600-10840 (24440) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3628-2816 (6444) |
Invested
$5,433.59
Value
$5.4K
PnL
-$4.59
Record
59%
62072-43165 (105237)
Invested
$706
Value
—
PnL
-$706
Record
54%
168-144 (312)
Invested
$426.52
Value
$496.77
PnL
+$70.25
Record
56%
14197-11138 (25335)
Invested
$170.79
Value
$194.56
PnL
+$23.76
Record
55%
17546-14181 (31727)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$135.5
Value
$148.56
PnL
+$13.06
Record
55%
44381-36870 (81251)
Invested
$123.62
Value
$198.57
PnL
+$74.94
Record
59%
6605-4565 (11170)
Invested
$109.81
Value
$87.86
PnL
-$21.95
Record
54%
15337-12848 (28185)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$81.55
Value
$85.33
PnL
+$3.79
Record
55%
8478-6924 (15402)
Invested
$53.46
Value
$63.73
PnL
+$10.27
Record
49%
5063-5234 (10297)
Invested
$42.52
Value
$50.02
PnL
+$7.5
Record
58%
50856-37000 (87856)
Invested
$48.67
Value
$52.75
PnL
+$4.08
Record
55%
7256-5944 (13200)
Invested
$41.58
Value
$46.89
PnL
+$5.31
Record
66%
124974-64321 (189295)
Invested
$31.11
Value
$35.63
PnL
+$4.52
Record
61%
94254-59306 (153560)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$25.68
Value
$26
PnL
+$0.32
Record
49%
77753-81199 (158952)
Invested
$28.66
Value
$32.75
PnL
+$4.09
Record
52%
89700-84165 (173865)
Invested
$39.71
Value
$55
PnL
+$15.29
Record
57%
11854-8839 (20693)
Invested
$20.57
Value
$24.8
PnL
+$4.23
Record
60%
12044-7933 (19977)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
48%
23145-25312 (48457)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.31
Value
—
PnL
-$4.31
Record
46%
37988-44761 (82749)
Invested
$29.26
Value
—
PnL
-$29.26
Record
54%
10628-9072 (19700)
Invested
$11.84
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.16
Record
93%
22867-1744 (24611)
Invested
$6.6
Value
—
PnL
-$6.6
Record
51%
19879-19038 (38917)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$7.03
PnL
+$0.91
Record
51%
16993-16549 (33542)
Invested
$11.1
Value
—
PnL
-$11.1
Record
56%
13600-10840 (24440)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3628-2816 (6444)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $5.4K
0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $496.77
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $194.56
MayorMamdani
Down — $148.56
13897651
Down — $198.57
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $87.86
machinelearned
Down — $85.33
ply-pm0
Down — $63.73
PBot-6
Down — $50.02