Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$610.95

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,008

Combined PnL+$971.33

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$360.38

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 42.9¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$103.1	56% 14197-11138 (25335)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$703.92	$1.8K	+$1.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.9¢	$943.05	—	-$943.05
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$399.05	54% 15337-12848 (28185)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$771.74	$2.0K	+$1.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$858.66	—	-$858.66
NIULAI4	Downavg 54.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$134.46	77% 9315-2760 (12075)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$902.64	$1.1K	+$221.94	56% 13600-10840 (24440)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$409.36	$1.1K	+$715.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$493.28	—	-$493.28
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 33.1¢	$675.84	$726.01	+$50.17	49% 5063-5234 (10297)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.3¢	$198.04	$726.01	+$527.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$477.8	—	-$477.8
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$667.06	$843.5	+$176.44	56% 12317-9509 (21826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.9¢	$311.65	$843.5	+$531.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.3¢	$355.41	—	-$355.41
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$733.89	$732.53	-$1.35	57% 11854-8839 (20693)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$448.34	$732.53	+$284.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$285.55	—	-$285.55
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$465.3	$446.68	-$18.62	55% 8478-6924 (15402)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.6¢	$190.46	$446.68	+$256.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.3¢	$274.84	—	-$274.84
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$398.13	$411.85	+$15.62	55% 7256-5944 (13200)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.1¢	$136.29	$411.85	+$275.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$260.19	—	-$260.19
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$378.06	$423.64	+$45.57	60% 12044-7933 (19977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.9¢	$186.07	$423.64	+$237.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$191.99	—	-$191.99
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 4¢	$20.32	$506.59	+$486.27	59% 62072-43165 (105237)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$313.83	$317	+$3.17	93% 22867-1744 (24611)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$268.2	$299.69	+$31.49	55% 23727-19181 (42908)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$141.94	$299.69	+$157.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$126.27	—	-$126.27
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 62.7¢	$246.83	$134.3	-$112.53	66% 111786-58127 (169913)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.4¢	$85.2	$134.3	+$49.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.7¢	$161.63	—	-$161.63
LI Little-big	Downavg 33¢	$82.72	$250.35	+$167.64	34% 18620-35608 (54228)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$108.55	$100.19	-$8.37	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.3¢	$15.37	$100.19	+$84.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$93.18	—	-$93.18
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 85.4¢	$85.08	$106	+$20.92	66% 124974-64321 (189295)
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.7¢	$12.42	$106	+$93.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.4¢	$72.66	—	-$72.66
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Upavg 89.5¢	$92.6	$97	+$21.45	61% 94254-59306 (153560)
└ Down leg	Downavg 14¢	$13.62	$97	+$87.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.5¢	$64.79	—	-$65.85
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 8.6¢	$9.55	$110.6	+$101.06	49% 77753-81199 (158952)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$106.24	$72.98	-$33.26	58% 37525-26772 (64297)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 68.4¢	$39.79	—	-$39.79	52% 89700-84165 (173865)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 6.1¢	$6.05	$98.52	+$92.47	46% 37988-44761 (82749)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$98.86	—	-$98.86	59% 6605-4565 (11170)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 82¢	$82.04	—	-$82.04	56% 57718-44587 (102305)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 45.6¢	$31.89	$48.14	+$16.25	55% 17546-14181 (31727)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,646.96

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$103.1

Record

56%

14197-11138 (25335)

Both legs:

Down$703.9240.2¢+$1.0K

Up$943.0542.9¢-$943.05

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,630.4

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$399.05

Record

54%

15337-12848 (28185)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,459.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$134.46

Record

77%

9315-2760 (12075)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$902.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$221.94

Record

56%

13600-10840 (24440)

Both legs:

Down$409.3636.4¢+$715.21

Up$493.2849.2¢-$493.28

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$675.84

Value

$726.01

PnL

+$50.17

Record

49%

5063-5234 (10297)

Both legs:

Down$198.0427.3¢+$527.97

Up$477.833.1¢-$477.8

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$667.06

Value

$843.5

PnL

+$176.44

Record

56%

12317-9509 (21826)

Both legs:

Down$311.6536.9¢+$531.85

Up$355.4154.3¢-$355.41

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$733.89

Value

$732.53

PnL

-$1.35

Record

57%

11854-8839 (20693)

Both legs:

Down$448.3461.2¢+$284.2

Up$285.5548.6¢-$285.55

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$465.3

Value

$446.68

PnL

-$18.62

Record

55%

8478-6924 (15402)

Both legs:

Down$190.4642.6¢+$256.22

Up$274.8476.3¢-$274.84

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$398.13

Value

$411.85

PnL

+$15.62

Record

55%

7256-5944 (13200)

Both legs:

Down$136.2933.1¢+$275.8

Up$260.1967.6¢-$260.19

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$378.06

Value

$423.64

PnL

+$45.57

Record

60%

12044-7933 (19977)

Both legs:

Down$186.0743.9¢+$237.56

Up$191.9973.1¢-$191.99

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$20.32

Value

$506.59

PnL

+$486.27

Record

59%

62072-43165 (105237)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$313.83

Value

$317

PnL

+$3.17

Record

93%

22867-1744 (24611)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$268.2

Value

$299.69

PnL

+$31.49

Record

55%

23727-19181 (42908)

Both legs:

Down$141.9447.4¢+$157.75

Up$126.2754.9¢-$126.27

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$246.83

Value

$134.3

PnL

-$112.53

Record

66%

111786-58127 (169913)

Both legs:

Down$85.263.4¢+$49.1

Up$161.6362.7¢-$161.63

Little-big

Down

Invested

$82.72

Value

$250.35

PnL

+$167.64

Record

34%

18620-35608 (54228)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$108.55

Value

$100.19

PnL

-$8.37

Record

54%

10628-9072 (19700)

Both legs:

Down$15.3715.3¢+$84.82

Up$93.1861¢-$93.18

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$85.08

Value

$106

PnL

+$20.92

Record

66%

124974-64321 (189295)

Both legs:

Down$12.4211.7¢+$93.58

Up$72.6685.4¢-$72.66

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Invested

$92.6

Value

$97

PnL

+$21.45

Record

61%

94254-59306 (153560)

Both legs:

Invested

$9.55

Value

$110.6

PnL

+$101.06

Record

49%

77753-81199 (158952)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$106.24

Value

$72.98

PnL

-$33.26

Record

58%

37525-26772 (64297)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$39.79

Value

—

PnL

-$39.79

Record

52%

89700-84165 (173865)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$6.05

Value

$98.52

PnL

+$92.47

Record

46%

37988-44761 (82749)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$98.86

Value

—

PnL

-$98.86

Record

59%

6605-4565 (11170)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$82.04

Value

—

PnL

-$82.04

Record

56%

57718-44587 (102305)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$31.89

Value

$48.14

PnL

+$16.25

Record

55%

17546-14181 (31727)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xfa3eefd2...0463bd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793253900

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$103.1

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$399.05

NIULAI4

Down — $1.6K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$15.62

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$45.57

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