Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 23%

22 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

-$613.87

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 16 top traders (38%)22 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,824

Combined PnL+$134.46

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,214

Combined PnL-$748.33

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$72.5	56% 14197-11138 (25335)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27¢	$765.31	—	-$765.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.4¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$837.81
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$28.39	54% 15337-12848 (28185)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.6¢	$685.75	—	-$685.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$737.49	$1.4K	+$657.36
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.33	56% 29277-23029 (52306)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.8¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$59.88	93% 22867-1744 (24611)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$15	—	-$15	74% 2941-1039 (3980)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$707.72	$707.9	+$0.17	56% 13600-10840 (24440)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.8¢	$284.02	—	-$284.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$423.7	$707.9	+$284.19
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$554.96	$566.72	+$11.76	49% 5063-5234 (10297)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.8¢	$278.59	—	-$278.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$276.38	$566.72	+$290.35
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$489.86	$521.33	+$31.47	56% 12317-9509 (21826)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.2¢	$190.88	—	-$190.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.3¢	$298.98	$521.33	+$222.35
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$522.81	$379.94	-$142.87	55% 7256-5944 (13200)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$213.16	—	-$213.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.5¢	$309.66	$379.94	+$70.28
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 90¢	$222.79	$205.81	-$16.98	77% 9315-2760 (12075)
└ Up leg	Upavg 6¢	$37.56	—	-$37.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 90¢	$185.23	$205.81	+$20.58
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 81.8¢	$548.24	$360	-$188.24	54% 10628-9072 (19700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$253.64	—	-$253.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.8¢	$294.6	$360	+$65.4
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.2¢	$21.7	—	-$21.7	59% 62072-43165 (105237)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$441.52	$303.26	-$138.26	66% 111786-58127 (169913)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.3¢	$212.58	—	-$212.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.5¢	$228.95	$303.26	+$74.31
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Upavg 48.1¢	$300	—	-$300	54% 168-144 (312)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4.6¢	$33.59	—	-$33.59	46% 37988-44761 (82749)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 91.2¢	$244.06	$150	-$94.06	55% 8478-6924 (15402)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28¢	$107.31	—	-$107.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.2¢	$136.75	$150	+$13.25
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$307.7	$167.18	-$140.52	57% 11854-8839 (20693)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.9¢	$208.09	—	-$208.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$99.6	$167.18	+$67.58
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$238.07	$193.53	-$44.54	56% 57718-44587 (102305)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$93.2	—	-$93.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.9¢	$144.87	$193.53	+$48.67
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$90.21	$139	+$48.79	49% 77753-81199 (158952)
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.8¢	$23.92	—	-$23.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$66.29	$139	+$72.71
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$235.76	$291.34	+$55.58	60% 12044-7933 (19977)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$171.34	$291.34	+$120
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$64.42	—	-$64.42
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$180.44	$166.35	-$14.09	55% 23727-19181 (42908)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.5¢	$75.24	—	-$75.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.2¢	$105.2	$166.35	+$61.15
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 16.1¢	$52.19	—	-$52.19	48% 23145-25312 (48457)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$199.81	$153.88	-$45.93	64% 39822-22752 (62574)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.1¢	$124.72	$153.88	+$29.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$75.09	—	-$75.09
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$31.2	$180	+$60	51% 19879-19038 (38917)
└ Down leg	Down	$180	$180	+$180
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$60	—	-$120
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$123.67	$78.45	-$45.22	34% 18620-35608 (54228)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$80.5	—	-$80.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$43.17	$78.45	+$35.28

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,419.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$72.5

Record

56%

14197-11138 (25335)

Both legs:

Up$765.3127¢-$765.31

Down$1,654.3566.4¢+$837.81

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,423.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$28.39

Record

54%

15337-12848 (28185)

Both legs:

Up$685.7537.6¢-$685.75

Down$737.4952.9¢+$657.36

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,002.67

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.33

Record

56%

29277-23029 (52306)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$2,682.12

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$59.88

Record

93%

22867-1744 (24611)

Vega7CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2941-1039 (3980)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$707.72

Value

$707.9

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

13600-10840 (24440)

Both legs:

Up$284.0236.8¢-$284.02

Down$423.759.9¢+$284.19

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$554.96

Value

$566.72

PnL

+$11.76

Record

49%

5063-5234 (10297)

Both legs:

Up$278.5937.8¢-$278.59

Down$276.3848.8¢+$290.35

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$489.86

Value

$521.33

PnL

+$31.47

Record

56%

12317-9509 (21826)

Both legs:

Up$190.8835.2¢-$190.88

Down$298.9857.3¢+$222.35

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$522.81

Value

$379.94

PnL

-$142.87

Record

55%

7256-5944 (13200)

Both legs:

Up$213.1641.2¢-$213.16

Down$309.6681.5¢+$70.28

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$222.79

Value

$205.81

PnL

-$16.98

Record

77%

9315-2760 (12075)

Both legs:

Up$37.566¢-$37.56

Down$185.2390¢+$20.58

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$548.24

Value

$360

PnL

-$188.24

Record

54%

10628-9072 (19700)

Both legs:

Up$253.6457.1¢-$253.64

Down$294.681.8¢+$65.4

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$21.7

Value

—

PnL

-$21.7

Record

59%

62072-43165 (105237)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$441.52

Value

$303.26

PnL

-$138.26

Record

66%

111786-58127 (169913)

Both legs:

Up$212.5858.3¢-$212.58

Down$228.9575.5¢+$74.31

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Invested

$300

Value

—

PnL

-$300

Record

54%

168-144 (312)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$33.59

Value

—

PnL

-$33.59

Record

46%

37988-44761 (82749)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$244.06

Value

$150

PnL

-$94.06

Record

55%

8478-6924 (15402)

Both legs:

Up$107.3128¢-$107.31

Down$136.7591.2¢+$13.25

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$307.7

Value

$167.18

PnL

-$140.52

Record

57%

11854-8839 (20693)

Both legs:

Up$208.0956.9¢-$208.09

Down$99.659.6¢+$67.58

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$238.07

Value

$193.53

PnL

-$44.54

Record

56%

57718-44587 (102305)

Both legs:

Up$93.230.3¢-$93.2

Down$144.8774.9¢+$48.67

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$90.21

Value

$139

PnL

+$48.79

Record

49%

77753-81199 (158952)

Both legs:

Up$23.926.8¢-$23.92

Down$66.2947.7¢+$72.71

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$235.76

Value

$291.34

PnL

+$55.58

Record

60%

12044-7933 (19977)

Both legs:

Down$171.3458.8¢+$120

Up$64.4238.7¢-$64.42

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$180.44

Value

$166.35

PnL

-$14.09

Record

55%

23727-19181 (42908)

Both legs:

Up$75.2435.5¢-$75.24

Down$105.263.2¢+$61.15

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$52.19

Value

—

PnL

-$52.19

Record

48%

23145-25312 (48457)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$199.81

Value

$153.88

PnL

-$45.93

Record

64%

39822-22752 (62574)

Both legs:

Down$124.7281.1¢+$29.16

Up$75.0950¢-$75.09

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$31.2

Value

$180

PnL

+$60

Record

51%

19879-19038 (38917)

Both legs:

Down$180—+$180

Up$6050¢-$120

Little-bigARB<$100

Invested

$123.67

Value

$78.45

PnL

-$45.22

Record

34%

18620-35608 (54228)

Both legs:

Up$80.550¢-$80.5

Down$43.1755¢+$35.28

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 16 top traders (38%)22 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x334a0976...42f6d3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793253600

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$72.5

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$28.39

THG.

Down — $3.0K

+$30.33

hoodquant

Down — $2.7K

Vega7

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded