Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$45.86

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,701

Combined PnL+$270.27

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares848

Combined PnL-$224.41

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 79.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$42.5	56% 14196-11136 (25332)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 78.7¢	$645.46	$651.46	+$6.01	54% 15322-12840 (28162)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.7¢	$512.57	$651.46	+$138.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.3¢	$132.89	—	-$132.89
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 84.1¢	$402.81	$392.3	-$10.51	49% 5051-5220 (10271)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.1¢	$329.77	$392.3	+$62.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.2¢	$73.04	—	-$73.04
machinelearned	Downavg 85.7¢	$245.8	$286.98	+$41.18	55% 8469-6906 (15375)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$242.33	$250.82	+$8.49	56% 13584-10833 (24417)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$192.82	$250.82	+$58
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.2¢	$49.51	—	-$49.51
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 84.8¢	$209.46	$209.18	-$0.28	54% 10578-9036 (19614)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$188.63	$187.65	-$0.99	56% 12303-9500 (21803)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.5¢	$143.64	$187.65	+$44.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.5¢	$45	—	-$45
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Upavg 50¢	$125	—	-$125	54% 166-143 (309)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 71.3¢	$122.54	$171.85	+$49.31	60% 12032-7918 (19950)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 83.4¢	$127.08	$143.83	+$16.75	55% 17500-14140 (31640)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 97.3¢	$107.43	$110.4	+$2.97	63% 51442-30275 (81717)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$102.53	$61.35	-$41.18	57% 11844-8822 (20666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.4¢	$48.84	—	-$48.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.5¢	$53.69	$61.35	+$7.66
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 96.3¢	$88.59	$91.95	+$3.36	93% 22826-1744 (24570)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 20.2¢	$60.65	—	-$60.65	48% 23131-25296 (48427)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 89¢	$89.04	$100.04	+$11	56% 57700-44571 (102271)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 72.6¢	$71.55	$94.82	+$23.27	55% 7242-5931 (13173)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 89¢	$48.53	$50.02	+$1.49	58% 60229-43960 (104189)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89¢	$44.52	$50.02	+$5.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 3.8¢	$4.01	—	-$4.01
13 13897651	Downavg 51.7¢	$51.78	$100.16	+$48.38	59% 6591-4553 (11144)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 89¢	$56.86	$60	+$3.14	49% 77653-81002 (158655)
AS asidjasiodjaARB<$100	Downavg 82¢	$45.27	$32	-$10.07	61% 94214-59259 (153473)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82¢	$26.24	$32	+$5.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 20¢	$15.75	—	-$15.75
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$43.75	$52.62	+$8.87	66% 124908-64287 (189195)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$5.01	—	-$5.01	64% 39798-22745 (62543)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 15.8¢	$10.2	—	-$10.2	51% 19871-19020 (38891)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 17.4¢	$10.98	—	-$10.98	55% 44344-36830 (81174)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 89¢	$17.8	$20	+$2.2	65% 22160-12167 (34327)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,149.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$42.5

Record

56%

14196-11136 (25332)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$645.46

Value

$651.46

PnL

+$6.01

Record

54%

15322-12840 (28162)

Both legs:

Down$512.5778.7¢+$138.89

Up$132.8917.3¢-$132.89

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$402.81

Value

$392.3

PnL

-$10.51

Record

49%

5051-5220 (10271)

Both legs:

Down$329.7784.1¢+$62.52

Up$73.0420.2¢-$73.04

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$245.8

Value

$286.98

PnL

+$41.18

Record

55%

8469-6906 (15375)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$242.33

Value

$250.82

PnL

+$8.49

Record

56%

13584-10833 (24417)

Both legs:

Invested

$209.46

Value

$209.18

PnL

-$0.28

Record

54%

10578-9036 (19614)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.63

Value

$187.65

PnL

-$0.99

Record

56%

12303-9500 (21803)

Both legs:

Down$143.6476.5¢+$44.01

Up$4520.5¢-$45

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Invested

$125

Value

—

PnL

-$125

Record

54%

166-143 (309)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$122.54

Value

$171.85

PnL

+$49.31

Record

60%

12032-7918 (19950)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$127.08

Value

$143.83

PnL

+$16.75

Record

55%

17500-14140 (31640)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$107.43

Value

$110.4

PnL

+$2.97

Record

63%

51442-30275 (81717)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.53

Value

$61.35

PnL

-$41.18

Record

57%

11844-8822 (20666)

Both legs:

Up$48.8422.4¢-$48.84

Down$53.6987.5¢+$7.66

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$88.59

Value

$91.95

PnL

+$3.36

Record

93%

22826-1744 (24570)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$60.65

Value

—

PnL

-$60.65

Record

48%

23131-25296 (48427)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$89.04

Value

$100.04

PnL

+$11

Record

56%

57700-44571 (102271)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$71.55

Value

$94.82

PnL

+$23.27

Record

55%

7242-5931 (13173)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$48.53

Value

$50.02

PnL

+$1.49

Record

58%

60229-43960 (104189)

Both legs:

Invested

$51.78

Value

$100.16

PnL

+$48.38

Record

59%

6591-4553 (11144)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$56.86

Value

$60

PnL

+$3.14

Record

49%

77653-81002 (158655)

asidjasiodjaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$45.27

Value

$32

PnL

-$10.07

Record

61%

94214-59259 (153473)

Both legs:

Invested

$43.75

Value

$52.62

PnL

+$8.87

Record

66%

124908-64287 (189195)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

—

PnL

-$5.01

Record

64%

39798-22745 (62543)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

—

PnL

-$10.2

Record

51%

19871-19020 (38891)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$10.98

Value

—

PnL

-$10.98

Record

55%

44344-36830 (81174)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$17.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$2.2

Record

65%

22160-12167 (34327)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 27 top traders (74%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9b1125f8...27079e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793253300

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

+$42.5

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $286.98

+$41.18

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.49

thesidehustle

Down — $209.18

-$0.28

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0.99

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

CTR

Up — $0

-$125

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $171.85

+$49.31

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $143.83

+$16.75

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