Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 90%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$397.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 23 top traders (83%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,140

Combined PnL+$504.74

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$107.61

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	59% 62058-43138 (105196)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$278.55	$295.59	+$17.04	54% 15322-12840 (28162)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$195.79	$295.59	+$99.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.2¢	$82.76	—	-$82.76
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 74.2¢	$279.81	$328.68	+$48.87	56% 13584-10833 (24417)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$192.66	$185.36	-$7.3	54% 10578-9036 (19614)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.9¢	$162.86	$185.36	+$22.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.3¢	$29.8	—	-$29.8
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 81¢	$132.94	$125	-$7.94	55% 8469-6906 (15375)
└ Up leg	Upavg 8¢	$31.69	—	-$31.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 81¢	$101.25	$125	+$23.75
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 83.6¢	$230.12	$275.14	+$45.02	58% 60229-43960 (104189)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 66.3¢	$157.02	$223.43	+$66.41	56% 12303-9500 (21803)
LI Little-big	Downavg 50¢	$125	$250	+$125	34% 18605-35595 (54200)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 67¢	$134.43	$200.75	+$66.33	57% 11844-8822 (20666)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 82.4¢	$145.42	$176.53	+$31.11	62% 43647-26607 (70254)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$117.73	$78.12	-$39.61	59% 6591-4553 (11144)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$79.54	—	-$79.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$38.19	$78.12	+$39.93
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 82.7¢	$131.7	$155.59	+$23.89	55% 17500-14140 (31640)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 57.1¢	$88.32	$128.53	+$40.21	49% 5051-5220 (10271)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Upavg 52.4¢	$100	—	-$100	54% 166-143 (309)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$66.33	$71.21	+$4.88	52% 89668-84106 (173774)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.3¢	$60.04	$71.21	+$11.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.7¢	$6.29	—	-$6.29
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 96¢	$84.48	$88	+$3.52	55% 7242-5931 (13173)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 91¢	$69.15	$75.99	+$6.84	64% 39798-22745 (62543)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$44.64	$64	+$19.36	55% 44344-36830 (81174)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$36.23	$35.37	-$0.86	60% 12032-7918 (19950)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$35.92	$46	+$10.08	66% 124908-64287 (189195)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$31.32	$42.64	+$11.32	61% 94214-59259 (153473)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$7.61	—	-$7.61	48% 23131-25296 (48427)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 94¢	$18.24	$19.4	+$1.16	65% 3945-2129 (6074)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 87¢	$12.88	$14.81	+$1.93	65% 22160-12167 (34327)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 76¢	$4.93	$6.49	+$1.56	66% 111755-58093 (169848)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

59%

62058-43138 (105196)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$278.55

Value

$295.59

PnL

+$17.04

Record

54%

15322-12840 (28162)

Both legs:

Down$195.7966.2¢+$99.8

Up$82.7628.2¢-$82.76

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$279.81

Value

$328.68

PnL

+$48.87

Record

56%

13584-10833 (24417)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$192.66

Value

$185.36

PnL

-$7.3

Record

54%

10578-9036 (19614)

Both legs:

Down$162.8687.9¢+$22.5

Up$29.89.3¢-$29.8

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.94

Value

$125

PnL

-$7.94

Record

55%

8469-6906 (15375)

Both legs:

Up$31.698¢-$31.69

Down$101.2581¢+$23.75

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$230.12

Value

$275.14

PnL

+$45.02

Record

58%

60229-43960 (104189)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$157.02

Value

$223.43

PnL

+$66.41

Record

56%

12303-9500 (21803)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$125

Value

$250

PnL

+$125

Record

34%

18605-35595 (54200)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$134.43

Value

$200.75

PnL

+$66.33

Record

57%

11844-8822 (20666)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$145.42

Value

$176.53

PnL

+$31.11

Record

62%

43647-26607 (70254)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$117.73

Value

$78.12

PnL

-$39.61

Record

59%

6591-4553 (11144)

Both legs:

Up$79.5452.2¢-$79.54

Down$38.1948.9¢+$39.93

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$131.7

Value

$155.59

PnL

+$23.89

Record

55%

17500-14140 (31640)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$88.32

Value

$128.53

PnL

+$40.21

Record

49%

5051-5220 (10271)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Invested

$100

Value

—

PnL

-$100

Record

54%

166-143 (309)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$66.33

Value

$71.21

PnL

+$4.88

Record

52%

89668-84106 (173774)

Both legs:

Down$60.0484.3¢+$11.17

Up$6.298.7¢-$6.29

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$84.48

Value

$88

PnL

+$3.52

Record

55%

7242-5931 (13173)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$69.15

Value

$75.99

PnL

+$6.84

Record

64%

39798-22745 (62543)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$44.64

Value

$64

PnL

+$19.36

Record

55%

44344-36830 (81174)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$36.23

Value

$35.37

PnL

-$0.86

Record

60%

12032-7918 (19950)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$35.92

Value

$46

PnL

+$10.08

Record

66%

124908-64287 (189195)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$31.32

Value

$42.64

PnL

+$11.32

Record

61%

94214-59259 (153473)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$7.61

Value

—

PnL

-$7.61

Record

48%

23131-25296 (48427)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$18.24

Value

$19.4

PnL

+$1.16

Record

65%

3945-2129 (6074)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$12.88

Value

$14.81

PnL

+$1.93

Record

65%

22160-12167 (34327)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$4.93

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$1.56

Record

66%

111755-58093 (169848)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 23 top traders (83%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x1ad7ed81...af598c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793253000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.0K

+$3.01

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$17.04

GoodFallen

Down — $328.68

thesidehustle

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $275.14

+$45.02

FairValueMachine

Down — $223.43

+$66.41

Little-big

Down — $250

+$125

EZTRADENL2

Down — $200.75

+$66.33

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $176.53

+$31.11

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