Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 76%
2 arb excluded
$10.1K
$191.42
Smart Money Signal
17 of 22 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $6.4K | $6.4K | +$6.45 | 59% 62058-43138 (105196) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 58.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$87.16 | 56% 14196-11136 (25332) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 61.2¢ | $800.32 | $732.2 | -$68.12 | 54% 15322-12840 (28162) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 61.5¢ | $404.52 | $418.42 | +$13.91 | 56% 13584-10833 (24417) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $300.87 | $315.91 | +$15.04 | 49% 5051-5220 (10271) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $178.92 | $315.91 | +$136.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.3¢ | $121.94 | — | -$121.94 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 62.2¢ | $242.03 | $260.39 | +$18.36 | 56% 12303-9500 (21803) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.2¢ | $162.02 | $260.39 | +$98.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.3¢ | $80 | — | -$80 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $119.77 | $199.07 | +$79.29 | 57% 11844-8822 (20666) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $36.23 | $64 | +$27.76 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $69.23 | $98 | +$28.77 | 55% 17500-14140 (31640) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $32.76 | $33 | +$0.24 | 49% 77653-81002 (158655) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 90.9¢ | $51.35 | $51.5 | +$0.15 | 55% 7242-5931 (13173) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $53 | $68.16 | +$15.16 | 66% 124908-64287 (189195) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 79.9¢ | $66.89 | $83.68 | +$16.79 | 55% 8469-6906 (15375) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.3¢ | $27.34 | — | -$27.34 | 60% 12032-7918 (19950) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $34.71 | $61.99 | +$27.28 | 59% 6591-4553 (11144) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $2.82 | — | -$2.82 | 46% 37974-44715 (82689) |
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $25 | — | -$25 | 54% 166-143 (309) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $24.75 | $25 | +$0.25 | 61% 94214-59259 (153473) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $29.46 | $42.25 | +$12.79 | 66% 111755-58093 (169848) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 82.4¢ | $31.62 | $38.37 | +$6.75 | 55% 23713-19172 (42885) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $14.75 | — | -$14.75 | 50% 7716-7729 (15445) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $3.09 | — | -$3.09 | 48% 23131-25296 (48427) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $20 | +$9.8 | 55% 44344-36830 (81174) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3628-2815 (6443) |
Invested
$6,439.57
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$6.45
Record
59%
62058-43138 (105196)
Invested
$1,017.4
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$87.16
Record
56%
14196-11136 (25332)
Invested
$800.32
Value
$732.2
PnL
-$68.12
Record
54%
15322-12840 (28162)
Invested
$404.52
Value
$418.42
PnL
+$13.91
Record
56%
13584-10833 (24417)
Invested
$300.87
Value
$315.91
PnL
+$15.04
Record
49%
5051-5220 (10271)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$242.03
Value
$260.39
PnL
+$18.36
Record
56%
12303-9500 (21803)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.77
Value
$199.07
PnL
+$79.29
Record
57%
11844-8822 (20666)
Invested
$36.23
Value
$64
PnL
+$27.76
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
Invested
$69.23
Value
$98
PnL
+$28.77
Record
55%
17500-14140 (31640)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$32.76
Value
$33
PnL
+$0.24
Record
49%
77653-81002 (158655)
Invested
$51.35
Value
$51.5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
7242-5931 (13173)
Invested
$53
Value
$68.16
PnL
+$15.16
Record
66%
124908-64287 (189195)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$66.89
Value
$83.68
PnL
+$16.79
Record
55%
8469-6906 (15375)
Invested
$27.34
Value
—
PnL
-$27.34
Record
60%
12032-7918 (19950)
Invested
$34.71
Value
$61.99
PnL
+$27.28
Record
59%
6591-4553 (11144)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
—
PnL
-$2.82
Record
46%
37974-44715 (82689)
Invested
$25
Value
—
PnL
-$25
Record
54%
166-143 (309)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
61%
94214-59259 (153473)
Invested
$29.46
Value
$42.25
PnL
+$12.79
Record
66%
111755-58093 (169848)
Invested
$31.62
Value
$38.37
PnL
+$6.75
Record
55%
23713-19172 (42885)
Invested
$14.75
Value
—
PnL
-$14.75
Record
50%
7716-7729 (15445)
Invested
$3.09
Value
—
PnL
-$3.09
Record
48%
23131-25296 (48427)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.8
Record
55%
44344-36830 (81174)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3628-2815 (6443)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $6.4K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $732.2
GoodFallen
Up — $418.42
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
EZTRADENL2
Up — $199.07
thesidehustle
Up — $64
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $98
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $33