Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
28
Down 48%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
$-4.6K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 28 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 51.7¢ | $2.0K | — | $-2.0K | 54% 15322-12840 (28162) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 48.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$49.16 | 56% 14196-11136 (25332) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 56% 13584-10833 (24417) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $924.67 | $934.06 | +$9.39 | 49% 5051-5220 (10271) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 47.8¢ | $626.23 | — | -$626.23 | 56% 12303-9500 (21803) |
PE penguin1125CTR | Downavg 44.6¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 47% 109-122 (231) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 69.5¢ | $485.46 | $458.92 | -$25.54 | 55% 7242-5931 (13173) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 62.6¢ | $271.94 | — | -$271.94 | 60% 12032-7918 (19950) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $975.7 | $1.6K | +$578.34 | 77% 9313-2755 (12068) |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 80.2¢ | $244.08 | $160.72 | -$83.35 | 55% 23713-19172 (42885) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Upavg 62.8¢ | $300.29 | $388.73 | +$88.44 | 57% 11844-8822 (20666) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.8¢ | $56.01 | — | -$56.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.8¢ | $244.28 | $388.73 | +$144.45 | |
PB PBot-6CTR | Downavg 48.3¢ | $139.88 | — | -$139.88 | 58% 50847-36987 (87834) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 62.4¢ | $182.97 | $181.42 | -$1.55 | 55% 8469-6906 (15375) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.2¢ | $27.08 | — | -$27.08 | 66% 111755-58093 (169848) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $54.8 | — | -$54.8 | 56% 57700-44571 (102271) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $36.67 | $47.26 | +$10.59 | 63% 51442-30275 (81717) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 71.5¢ | $35.67 | $49.9 | +$14.24 | 55% 17500-14140 (31640) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $34.87 | — | -$34.87 | 59% 6591-4553 (11144) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $33.7 | — | -$33.7 | 65% 22160-12167 (34327) |
TH thesidehustle | Upavg 55.4¢ | $75.52 | $123.62 | +$48.1 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 42.8¢ | $27.98 | $65.4 | +$37.43 | 55% 44344-36830 (81174) |
 Atomforge | Upavg 87¢ | $115.32 | $132.55 | +$17.23 | 65% 3945-2129 (6074) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 32.5¢ | $7.06 | — | -$7.06 | 61% 94214-59259 (153473) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 39.2¢ | $8.32 | $11.8 | +$3.48 | 52% 89668-84106 (173774) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $4.16 | $13 | +$8.84 | 49% 77653-81002 (158655) |
Invested
$1,966.37
Value
—
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
54%
15322-12840 (28162)
Invested
$1,163.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$49.16
Record
56%
14196-11136 (25332)
Invested
$1,145.24
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
56%
13584-10833 (24417)
Invested
$924.67
Value
$934.06
PnL
+$9.39
Record
49%
5051-5220 (10271)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$626.23
Value
—
PnL
-$626.23
Record
56%
12303-9500 (21803)
Invested
$1,000
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
47%
109-122 (231)
Invested
$485.46
Value
$458.92
PnL
-$25.54
Record
55%
7242-5931 (13173)
Invested
$271.94
Value
—
PnL
-$271.94
Record
60%
12032-7918 (19950)
NIULAI4Invested
$975.7
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$578.34
Record
77%
9313-2755 (12068)
Invested
$244.08
Value
$160.72
PnL
-$83.35
Record
55%
23713-19172 (42885)
Invested
$300.29
Value
$388.73
PnL
+$88.44
Record
57%
11844-8822 (20666)
Both legs:
Invested
$139.88
Value
—
PnL
-$139.88
Record
58%
50847-36987 (87834)
machinelearnedInvested
$182.97
Value
$181.42
PnL
-$1.55
Record
55%
8469-6906 (15375)
Invested
$27.08
Value
—
PnL
-$27.08
Record
66%
111755-58093 (169848)
Invested
$54.8
Value
—
PnL
-$54.8
Record
56%
57700-44571 (102271)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$36.67
Value
$47.26
PnL
+$10.59
Record
63%
51442-30275 (81717)
Invested
$35.67
Value
$49.9
PnL
+$14.24
Record
55%
17500-14140 (31640)
Invested
$34.87
Value
—
PnL
-$34.87
Record
59%
6591-4553 (11144)
Invested
$33.7
Value
—
PnL
-$33.7
Record
65%
22160-12167 (34327)
Invested
$75.52
Value
$123.62
PnL
+$48.1
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$27.98
Value
$65.4
PnL
+$37.43
Record
55%
44344-36830 (81174)
AtomforgeInvested
$115.32
Value
$132.55
PnL
+$17.23
Record
65%
3945-2129 (6074)
Invested
$7.06
Value
—
PnL
-$7.06
Record
61%
94214-59259 (153473)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$3.48
Record
52%
89668-84106 (173774)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.16
Value
$13
PnL
+$8.84
Record
49%
77653-81002 (158655)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.2K
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $934.06
FairValueMachine
CTRDown — $0
penguin1125
CTRDown — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $458.92
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $1.6K
sir-upalot
Up — $160.72