Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 42%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$767.91

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 26 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,617

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,959

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 52¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$4.96	54% 15322-12840 (28162)
PE penguin1125	Downavg 34.7¢	$1.0K	$2.9K	+$1.9K	47% 109-122 (231)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.3¢	$863.47	$1.0K	+$139.42	56% 13584-10833 (24417)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.7	93% 22826-1744 (24570)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 70.3¢	$852.09	$691.98	-$160.11	49% 5051-5220 (10271)
NIULAI4	Downavg 78.6¢	$695.51	$676.03	-$19.48	77% 9313-2755 (12068)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 58.9¢	$525.47	$703.3	+$177.83	56% 12303-9500 (21803)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 73.8¢	$533.3	$424.63	-$108.67	56% 14196-11136 (25332)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.8¢	$313.56	$424.63	+$111.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$219.74	—	-$219.74
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 63.1¢	$360.03	$436.17	+$76.14	55% 7242-5931 (13173)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$307.81	$250.47	-$57.34	59% 22946-16111 (39057)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$220.04	—	-$220.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$87.76	$250.47	+$162.71
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Upavg 53.6¢	$378.75	—	-$378.75	60% 12032-7918 (19950)
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 86.5¢	$172.98	—	-$172.98	51% 16979-16540 (33519)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 88.3¢	$236.99	—	-$236.99	55% 8469-6906 (15375)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$263.84	$120.02	-$143.82	57% 11844-8822 (20666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.2¢	$93.8	$120.02	+$26.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$170.05	—	-$170.05
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 77.6¢	$270.43	$102.19	-$168.24	54% 10578-9036 (19614)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$50.97	$102.19	+$51.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.6¢	$219.46	—	-$219.46
Atomforge	Downavg 89.5¢	$135.11	$129.84	-$5.27	65% 3945-2129 (6074)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 30.1¢	$49.15	—	-$49.15	46% 37974-44715 (82689)
MayorMamdaniCTR	Upavg 74.6¢	$151.87	—	-$151.87	55% 44344-36830 (81174)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 98¢	$134.94	$103.04	-$31.9	66% 124908-64287 (189195)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$68.8	—	-$68.8	55% 17500-14140 (31640)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$131.35	$32.19	-$99.16	55% 23713-19172 (42885)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$106.34	—	-$106.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.7¢	$25.01	$32.19	+$7.18
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$69.58	—	-$69.58	49% 77653-81002 (158655)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 81.7¢	$72.32	—	-$70.32	65% 22160-12167 (34327)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 16.3¢	$35.92	—	-$35.92	66% 111755-58093 (169848)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 7.3¢	$13.87	—	-$13.87	61% 94214-59259 (153473)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,929.52

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$4.96

Record

54%

15322-12840 (28162)

penguin1125

Down

Invested

$1,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

47%

109-122 (231)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$863.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$139.42

Record

56%

13584-10833 (24417)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,058.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.7

Record

93%

22826-1744 (24570)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$852.09

Value

$691.98

PnL

-$160.11

Record

49%

5051-5220 (10271)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$695.51

Value

$676.03

PnL

-$19.48

Record

77%

9313-2755 (12068)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$525.47

Value

$703.3

PnL

+$177.83

Record

56%

12303-9500 (21803)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$533.3

Value

$424.63

PnL

-$108.67

Record

56%

14196-11136 (25332)

Both legs:

Down$313.5673.8¢+$111.07

Up$219.7430.5¢-$219.74

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$360.03

Value

$436.17

PnL

+$76.14

Record

55%

7242-5931 (13173)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$307.81

Value

$250.47

PnL

-$57.34

Record

59%

22946-16111 (39057)

Both legs:

Up$220.0461.4¢-$220.04

Down$87.7635¢+$162.71

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Invested

$378.75

Value

—

PnL

-$378.75

Record

60%

12032-7918 (19950)

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$172.98

Value

—

PnL

-$172.98

Record

51%

16979-16540 (33519)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$236.99

Value

—

PnL

-$236.99

Record

55%

8469-6906 (15375)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$263.84

Value

$120.02

PnL

-$143.82

Record

57%

11844-8822 (20666)

Both legs:

Down$93.878.2¢+$26.22

Up$170.0565.5¢-$170.05

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$270.43

Value

$102.19

PnL

-$168.24

Record

54%

10578-9036 (19614)

Both legs:

Down$50.9749.9¢+$51.22

Up$219.4677.6¢-$219.46

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$135.11

Value

$129.84

PnL

-$5.27

Record

65%

3945-2129 (6074)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$49.15

Value

—

PnL

-$49.15

Record

46%

37974-44715 (82689)

MayorMamdaniCTR

Invested

$151.87

Value

—

PnL

-$151.87

Record

55%

44344-36830 (81174)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$134.94

Value

$103.04

PnL

-$31.9

Record

66%

124908-64287 (189195)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$68.8

Value

—

PnL

-$68.8

Record

55%

17500-14140 (31640)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$131.35

Value

$32.19

PnL

-$99.16

Record

55%

23713-19172 (42885)

Both legs:

Up$106.3441.4¢-$106.34

Down$25.0177.7¢+$7.18

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$69.58

Value

—

PnL

-$69.58

Record

49%

77653-81002 (158655)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$72.32

Value

—

PnL

-$70.32

Record

65%

22160-12167 (34327)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$35.92

Value

—

PnL

-$35.92

Record

66%

111755-58093 (169848)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$13.87

Value

—

PnL

-$13.87

Record

61%

94214-59259 (153473)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 26 top traders (38%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc7df0ae0...c2deb0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793252100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.9K

-$4.96

penguin1125

Down — $2.9K

+$1.9K

GoodFallen

Down — $1.0K

+$139.42

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$10.7

ply-pm0

Down — $691.98

-$160.11

NIULAI4

Down — $676.03

-$19.48

FairValueMachine

Down — $703.3

+$177.83

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$108.67

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $436.17

+$76.14

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$57.34

Trade on Polymarket