Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
25
Down 74%
1 arb excluded
$6.1K
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 25 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barrister | Down | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$8.17 | 56% 3628-2815 (6443) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $301.04 | $615.11 | +$314.06 | 58% 50847-36987 (87834) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $226.89 | $227.1 | +$0.21 | 59% 62058-43138 (105196) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 65.2¢ | $189.98 | $198.53 | +$8.56 | 54% 15322-12840 (28162) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 49.5¢ | $123.76 | $250.01 | +$126.25 | 34% 18605-35595 (54200) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $120.13 | $100 | -$20.13 | 56% 12303-9500 (21803) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.7¢ | $54.13 | — | -$54.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66¢ | $66 | $100 | +$34 | |
13 13897651 | Downavg 53.2¢ | $109.51 | $205.91 | +$96.39 | 59% 6591-4553 (11144) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $90.53 | $99.99 | +$9.46 | 55% 8469-6906 (15375) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $71.73 | $93.37 | +$21.63 | 60% 12032-7918 (19950) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $58.8 | $60 | +$1.2 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $74.25 | $60 | -$14.25 | 68% 98984-47279 (146263) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 91.9¢ | $61.38 | $59.84 | -$1.54 | 59% 22946-16111 (39057) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $49.98 | $58.75 | +$8.77 | 49% 5051-5220 (10271) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $44.59 | $55.07 | +$10.47 | 55% 17500-14140 (31640) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $40.69 | — | -$40.69 | 56% 13584-10833 (24417) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 73.2¢ | $49.61 | $67.77 | +$18.16 | 66% 111755-58093 (169848) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $31.05 | $33.92 | +$2.87 | 66% 124908-64287 (189195) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $9.48 | — | -$9.48 | 46% 37974-44715 (82689) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $30 | +$7.5 | 55% 23713-19172 (42885) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.5¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 48% 23131-25296 (48427) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $13.04 | $18.11 | +$5.07 | 57% 11844-8822 (20666) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.1¢ | $9.3 | — | -$9.3 | 49% 77653-81002 (158655) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.3¢ | $7.65 | — | -$7.65 | 55% 7242-5931 (13173) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.74 | — | -$1.74 | 52% 89668-84106 (173774) |
PE penguin1125CTR | Upavg 52.4¢ | $2.0K | — | $-1.8K | 47% 109-122 (231) |
Invested
$3,846.08
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$8.17
Record
56%
3628-2815 (6443)
Invested
$301.04
Value
$615.11
PnL
+$314.06
Record
58%
50847-36987 (87834)
Invested
$226.89
Value
$227.1
PnL
+$0.21
Record
59%
62058-43138 (105196)
Invested
$189.98
Value
$198.53
PnL
+$8.56
Record
54%
15322-12840 (28162)
Invested
$123.76
Value
$250.01
PnL
+$126.25
Record
34%
18605-35595 (54200)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$120.13
Value
$100
PnL
-$20.13
Record
56%
12303-9500 (21803)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.51
Value
$205.91
PnL
+$96.39
Record
59%
6591-4553 (11144)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$90.53
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$9.46
Record
55%
8469-6906 (15375)
Invested
$71.73
Value
$93.37
PnL
+$21.63
Record
60%
12032-7918 (19950)
Invested
$58.8
Value
$60
PnL
+$1.2
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
Invested
$74.25
Value
$60
PnL
-$14.25
Record
68%
98984-47279 (146263)
Invested
$61.38
Value
$59.84
PnL
-$1.54
Record
59%
22946-16111 (39057)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$58.75
PnL
+$8.77
Record
49%
5051-5220 (10271)
Invested
$44.59
Value
$55.07
PnL
+$10.47
Record
55%
17500-14140 (31640)
Invested
$40.69
Value
—
PnL
-$40.69
Record
56%
13584-10833 (24417)
Invested
$49.61
Value
$67.77
PnL
+$18.16
Record
66%
111755-58093 (169848)
Invested
$31.05
Value
$33.92
PnL
+$2.87
Record
66%
124908-64287 (189195)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$9.48
Value
—
PnL
-$9.48
Record
46%
37974-44715 (82689)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$7.5
Record
55%
23713-19172 (42885)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
48%
23131-25296 (48427)
Invested
$13.04
Value
$18.11
PnL
+$5.07
Record
57%
11844-8822 (20666)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$9.3
Value
—
PnL
-$9.3
Record
49%
77653-81002 (158655)
Invested
$7.65
Value
—
PnL
-$7.65
Record
55%
7242-5931 (13173)
Invested
$1.74
Value
—
PnL
-$1.74
Record
52%
89668-84106 (173774)
Invested
$2,000
Value
—
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
47%
109-122 (231)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $3.8K
PBot-6
Down — $615.11
0x50f7
Down — $227.1
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $198.53
Little-big
Down — $250.01
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Down — $205.91
machinelearned
Down — $99.99
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $93.37
thesidehustle
Down — $60