Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 25 top traders (60%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,583

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Up10 traders

Total Value$997.75

Total Shares998

Combined PnL+$372.19

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$154.27	54% 15321-12840 (28161)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$879.88	—	-$879.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$495.06	$1.2K	+$725.61
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 42.5¢	$605.18	$727.4	+$122.23	56% 13584-10832 (24416)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$296.39	—	-$296.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.5¢	$308.79	$727.4	+$418.62
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$549.79	$573.53	+$23.74	49% 5051-5218 (10269)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$299.87	—	-$299.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.6¢	$249.92	$573.53	+$323.61
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$336.26	$318.03	+$11.47	64% 57804-32541 (90345)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$240.47	—	-$240.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.5¢	$87.53	$318.03	+$251.94
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 47.7¢	$481.98	—	-$481.98	56% 12303-9499 (21802)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 78.3¢	$395.82	$197.9	-$197.92	57% 11844-8820 (20664)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.3¢	$268.25	—	-$268.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$127.57	$197.9	+$70.33
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$290.78	$241.56	-$49.22	55% 7241-5930 (13171)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$166.81	—	-$166.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.3¢	$123.98	$241.56	+$117.59
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 35.7¢	$175.57	$164.45	-$11.12	51% 16978-16539 (33517)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.7¢	$112.71	—	-$112.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$62.86	$164.45	+$101.59
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 51¢	$152.95	—	-$152.95	48% 23122-25284 (48406)
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 46.8¢	$176.59	—	-$176.59	66% 111736-58065 (169801)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 38.7¢	$158.13	$208.69	+$50.55	60% 12031-7917 (19948)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.3¢	$77.39	—	-$77.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$80.74	$208.69	+$127.94
SI sir-upalotCTR	Downavg 53.4¢	$164.6	—	-$164.6	55% 23712-19172 (42884)
NIULAI4	Upavg 68.5¢	$309.93	$431.3	+$121.37	77% 9313-2755 (12068)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 77.9¢	$203.86	—	-$203.86	58% 60218-43959 (104177)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 75¢	$94.07	$166.84	+$72.77	64% 39791-22743 (62534)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$76.04	—	-$76.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.8¢	$18.03	$166.84	+$148.81
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 42.3¢	$147.2	$253.87	+$106.66	57% 70079-53264 (123343)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$107.45	$253.87	+$146.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.3¢	$39.75	—	-$39.75
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 54.1¢	$91.8	—	-$91.8	55% 8467-6906 (15373)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Downavg 74.6¢	$122.68	—	-$122.68	56% 57694-44567 (102261)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 48.8¢	$132.05	$234.76	+$102.71	55% 17472-14100 (31572)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 15.1¢	$44.22	$147.97	+$103.75	54% 10578-9036 (19614)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.1¢	$22.32	$147.97	+$125.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$21.91	—	-$21.91
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$27.34	—	-$27.34	57% 10208-7647 (17855)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$51.28	$110.99	+$59.7	55% 44309-36802 (81111)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.7¢	$23	$110.99	+$87.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$28.29	—	-$28.29
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$131.29	$110.81	-$20.12	65% 124499-66595 (191094)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.5¢	$80.29	$110.81	+$30.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 85¢	$43.35	—	-$50.64
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 83¢	$58.92	—	-$58.92	57% 7662-5869 (13531)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$66.99	—	-$66.99	59% 6579-4550 (11129)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,374.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$154.27

Record

54%

15321-12840 (28161)

Both legs:

Down$879.8855.5¢-$879.88

Up$495.0640.6¢+$725.61

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$605.18

Value

$727.4

PnL

+$122.23

Record

56%

13584-10832 (24416)

Both legs:

Down$296.3946.8¢-$296.39

Up$308.7942.5¢+$418.62

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$549.79

Value

$573.53

PnL

+$23.74

Record

49%

5051-5218 (10269)

Both legs:

Down$299.8749.8¢-$299.87

Up$249.9243.6¢+$323.61

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$336.26

Value

$318.03

PnL

+$11.47

Record

64%

57804-32541 (90345)

Both legs:

Down$240.4764.6¢-$240.47

Up$87.5327.5¢+$251.94

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$481.98

Value

—

PnL

-$481.98

Record

56%

12303-9499 (21802)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$395.82

Value

$197.9

PnL

-$197.92

Record

57%

11844-8820 (20664)

Both legs:

Down$268.2578.3¢-$268.25

Up$127.5764.5¢+$70.33

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$290.78

Value

$241.56

PnL

-$49.22

Record

55%

7241-5930 (13171)

Both legs:

Down$166.8160.3¢-$166.81

Up$123.9851.3¢+$117.59

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$175.57

Value

$164.45

PnL

-$11.12

Record

51%

16978-16539 (33517)

Both legs:

Down$112.7135.7¢-$112.71

Up$62.8638.2¢+$101.59

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$152.95

Value

—

PnL

-$152.95

Record

48%

23122-25284 (48406)

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$176.59

Value

—

PnL

-$176.59

Record

66%

111736-58065 (169801)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$158.13

Value

$208.69

PnL

+$50.55

Record

60%

12031-7917 (19948)

Both legs:

Down$77.3941.3¢-$77.39

Up$80.7438.7¢+$127.94

sir-upalotCTR

Down

Invested

$164.6

Value

—

PnL

-$164.6

Record

55%

23712-19172 (42884)

NIULAI4

Invested

$309.93

Value

$431.3

PnL

+$121.37

Record

77%

9313-2755 (12068)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$203.86

Value

—

PnL

-$203.86

Record

58%

60218-43959 (104177)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.07

Value

$166.84

PnL

+$72.77

Record

64%

39791-22743 (62534)

Both legs:

Down$76.0475¢-$76.04

Up$18.0310.8¢+$148.81

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$147.2

Value

$253.87

PnL

+$106.66

Record

57%

70079-53264 (123343)

Both legs:

Up$107.4542.3¢+$146.41

Down$39.7588.3¢-$39.75

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$91.8

Value

—

PnL

-$91.8

Record

55%

8467-6906 (15373)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Down

Invested

$122.68

Value

—

PnL

-$122.68

Record

56%

57694-44567 (102261)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$132.05

Value

$234.76

PnL

+$102.71

Record

55%

17472-14100 (31572)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$44.22

Value

$147.97

PnL

+$103.75

Record

54%

10578-9036 (19614)

Both legs:

Up$22.3215.1¢+$125.65

Down$21.9140.7¢-$21.91

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.34

Value

—

PnL

-$27.34

Record

57%

10208-7647 (17855)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Down

Invested

$51.28

Value

$110.99

PnL

+$59.7

Record

55%

44309-36802 (81111)

Both legs:

Up$2320.7¢+$87.99

Down$28.2955.2¢-$28.29

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$131.29

Value

$110.81

PnL

-$20.12

Record

65%

124499-66595 (191094)

Both legs:

Invested

$58.92

Value

—

PnL

-$58.92

Record

57%

7662-5869 (13531)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$66.99

Value

—

PnL

-$66.99

Record

59%

6579-4550 (11129)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 25 top traders (60%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x1572a514...25999c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793247600

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Down — $0

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0