Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
26
Down 48%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 26 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 44.5¢ | $708.76 | — | -$708.76 | 54% 15321-12840 (28161) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $578.16 | $584 | +$5.84 | 93% 22818-1742 (24560) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 42.2¢ | $220.14 | — | -$220.14 | 56% 13584-10832 (24416) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $196.72 | $168.77 | -$27.96 | 49% 5051-5218 (10269) |
13 13897651CTR | Downavg 61.2¢ | $184.88 | — | -$184.88 | 59% 6579-4550 (11129) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 53.9¢ | $111.96 | $157.2 | +$45.24 | 55% 7241-5930 (13171) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.9¢ | $84.68 | $157.2 | +$72.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.5¢ | $27.28 | — | -$27.28 | |
TR trdyugiolkw | Upavg 84¢ | $117.62 | $140 | +$22.38 | 57% 10208-7647 (17855) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Downavg 22.3¢ | $325 | — | -$325 | 32% 88-189 (277) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $93.32 | — | -$93.32 | 58% 37494-26736 (64230) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 72.2¢ | $132.27 | $110.14 | -$22.13 | 64% 57804-32541 (90345) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 74¢ | $127.08 | $113.94 | -$13.14 | 57% 11844-8820 (20664) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $78.72 | $99.99 | +$21.27 | 56% 12303-9499 (21802) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 70.1¢ | $73.77 | $68.45 | -$5.33 | 60% 12031-7917 (19948) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $54.03 | — | -$54.03 | 58% 60218-43959 (104177) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $81.38 | $60 | -$21.38 | 54% 10578-9036 (19614) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 83.9¢ | $37.23 | $38.53 | +$1.3 | 66% 124869-64274 (189143) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $33.91 | $50 | +$16.09 | 55% 23712-19172 (42884) |
 Bossgirl<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $25.5 | $30 | +$4.5 | 54% 4607-3923 (8530) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $24.51 | — | -$24.51 | 58% 50845-36985 (87830) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $13.3 | — | -$13.3 | 55% 17472-14100 (31572) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $3.15 | — | -$3.15 | 49% 77653-81002 (158655) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $6.56 | $8.3 | +$1.74 | 61% 94187-59243 (153430) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $6.02 | $7.62 | +$1.6 | 65% 3944-2129 (6073) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $11.33 | — | -$11.33 | 46% 37968-44693 (82661) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $4.75 | — | -$4.75 | 66% 111736-58065 (169801) |
Invested
$708.76
Value
—
PnL
-$708.76
Record
54%
15321-12840 (28161)
Invested
$578.16
Value
$584
PnL
+$5.84
Record
93%
22818-1742 (24560)
Invested
$220.14
Value
—
PnL
-$220.14
Record
56%
13584-10832 (24416)
Invested
$196.72
Value
$168.77
PnL
-$27.96
Record
49%
5051-5218 (10269)
Invested
$184.88
Value
—
PnL
-$184.88
Record
59%
6579-4550 (11129)
Invested
$111.96
Value
$157.2
PnL
+$45.24
Record
55%
7241-5930 (13171)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.62
Value
$140
PnL
+$22.38
Record
57%
10208-7647 (17855)
Invested
$325
Value
—
PnL
-$325
Record
32%
88-189 (277)
Invested
$93.32
Value
—
PnL
-$93.32
Record
58%
37494-26736 (64230)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$132.27
Value
$110.14
PnL
-$22.13
Record
64%
57804-32541 (90345)
Invested
$127.08
Value
$113.94
PnL
-$13.14
Record
57%
11844-8820 (20664)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$78.72
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$21.27
Record
56%
12303-9499 (21802)
Invested
$73.77
Value
$68.45
PnL
-$5.33
Record
60%
12031-7917 (19948)
Invested
$54.03
Value
—
PnL
-$54.03
Record
58%
60218-43959 (104177)
Invested
$81.38
Value
$60
PnL
-$21.38
Record
54%
10578-9036 (19614)
Invested
$37.23
Value
$38.53
PnL
+$1.3
Record
66%
124869-64274 (189143)
Invested
$33.91
Value
$50
PnL
+$16.09
Record
55%
23712-19172 (42884)
Bossgirl<$100Invested
$25.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$4.5
Record
54%
4607-3923 (8530)
Invested
$24.51
Value
—
PnL
-$24.51
Record
58%
50845-36985 (87830)
Invested
$13.3
Value
—
PnL
-$13.3
Record
55%
17472-14100 (31572)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
—
PnL
-$3.15
Record
49%
77653-81002 (158655)
Invested
$6.56
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$1.74
Record
61%
94187-59243 (153430)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$6.02
Value
$7.62
PnL
+$1.6
Record
65%
3944-2129 (6073)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$11.33
Value
—
PnL
-$11.33
Record
46%
37968-44693 (82661)
Invested
$4.75
Value
—
PnL
-$4.75
Record
66%
111736-58065 (169801)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $584
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $168.77
13897651
CTRDown — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
trdyugiolkw
Up — $140
never-stop-clicking
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $110.14